Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
Gulf Nations Unite for Strait Security, Boost Asian Trade
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
China Prepares for Imminent Hormuz Strait Closure
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
2019 Book Predicted Missile‑Drone Dominance
2019 book that predicted the “missiles + drones > naval ships” dynamic we are watching play out in real time in Hormuz. Martyanov’s warnings apparently fell on deaf ears in DC unfortunately. https://t.co/4nsMkPDhTm
IEA Chief to Brief EU Ministers on Iran War Impact
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Gas Crunch Could Spur Solar‑Battery Leap in Emerging Markets
Interesting debate here between JP Morgan's Michael Cembalest and @JigarShahDC on the latest Open Circuit episode. Will the global natural gas crunch accelerate solar + batteries in emerging markets that are considering deeper investments in LNG? Michael argues that comparisons people...
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
Trump and Xi Set to Meet in Beijing May 14‑15
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold their highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay that brought fresh uncertainty to relations between the world’s largest economies. https://t.co/mGv6Vxm4He
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Hormuz Closure Threatens World Economy, Outweighs US Strikes
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...
China's Primary Oil Sources Revealed in Chartbook
Where China gets is oil from. This and more in the today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/o4m9jIk6D4
Biden's China Strategy Prioritizes Tech Competition and Selective Decoupling
Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy An interesting study, some thoughts on US China technology competition portion. A thread. 🧵 https://t.co/Y81X3BGkEJ
Russia's Oil Exports Plunge 40% After Drone Attacks
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
China AI Stocks Surge After State Media Touts Token Boom
China’s AI Stocks Rally as State Media Highlights Surge in Token Usage - Bloomberg https://t.co/gL8DSTlUNg
Emerging Markets Plunge Amid War, Strong Dollar, Commodity Chaos
$EEM -3.44% in ONE session. Emerging markets are getting destroyed. War + strong dollar + commodity chaos = perfect storm. $DXY $EFA https://t.co/WNM0jw3qha
BCA Research Hormuz Crisis Dashboard Now Open to Public
Just a reminder that everyone should check out the BCA Research Hormuz Crisis dashboard, which we have now made available to non-cients. https://t.co/2w3YrSrMuA https://t.co/PRmuyuEG4a
Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Launches May 1, Covering 25% of Global GDP
"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm
Markets Rally on Hope for US‑Israel Iran Peace Plan
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds: There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point...
Thailand May Hike Power Rates 18% Amid Middle East Conflict
Thailand is hiking power prices due to the conflict in the Middle East 🇹🇭 ⚠️ Power rates may be increased by as much as 18% for the May-Aug. billing period due to higher fuel costs Other gas importers are...
US 15‑point War Plan Lifts Stocks, Drops Yields
The heavy flow of War-related news continues this morning, with reports ranging from corroborative to contradictory. On a net basis—and mainly reflecting news that the US has proposed a “15-point plan to end the war”—bond yields and oil prices are down...
India's Economy Crippled by Gulf Dependence Amid Iran War
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: As the Iranian war drags on, India takes an economic hit. Eighty percent of Indian gas imports, forty percent of Indian oil imports, and forty percent of India’s remittances depend on the Gulf. MODI SHOULD SEND TRUMP AND NETANYAHU A...
Asia Cuts LNG Imports to Free Gas for Europe
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
Trump‑Iran Talks Spark Hormuz Oil Fears, Lift Prices
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Saudi Red Sea Exports Avert Major Hormuz Oil Disruption
Saudi oil exports from its Western ports on the Red Sea represented the most immediate and largest mitigation of the Hormuz crisis. Logically, any oil transported via pipelines from east to west and loaded at the Red Sea ports must be...
China Gas Prices Surge 20% Since Iran War
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
Fed Says China's Exports Driven by Constrained Household Consumption
1/5 This new paper by the Fed concludes that China's export success stems from weak domestic demand "rooted in structural features of China's economy and financial system—particularly those that constrain household consumption." https://t.co/jplDeN5d6g
US Navy's Proximity Stalls Commercial Traffic in Hormuz
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
US Brigade Plan Risks Escalation Into Iran's Oil Heart
US weighing deployment of a combat brigade to take Kharg, repair airfields Supply lines would follow That’s a blueprint for escalation into Iran’s oil heart MARKETS AREN’T READY FOR THAT OUTCOME #IranWar #Oil #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ekbkXerzjV
Trump Pushes Iran Ceasefire to Keep Strait Open
So Trump admin is [rightly] panicking about the Strait of Hormuz so they’re going to try to get Iran to agree to a 1-month ceasefire to negotiate during which I’m sure Trump wants the Strait open Iran’s main leverage is the...
Global Unity Needed: Conflict Ends, Markets Rebound
You know what I would tell people on the street? To keep calm and remain optimistic. You have to keep in mind that EVERY NATION has stake in the game, whether it’s the Middle East, the US, China, Japan, it...
Chaos in Middle East Markets Creates Trading Edge
The Middle East is on a KNIFE'S EDGE 🔪 Ceasefire talks. Marines steaming toward Hormuz. Saudis sharpening their knives. Oil dumping on every headline 🛢️💥 Markets are an absolute WARZONE right now But here's the cold hard truth... CHAOS = EDGE for those who...
Drone Strikes Threaten Russian Oil, Global Market Stability
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
Russia's Oil Profits Surge; Carmakers Forced to Source Russian Aluminum
Russia is earning the most from its oil exports since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. https://t.co/71t01Q9mI9 Meanwhile some carmakers are considering buying aluminum from Russia. “We don’t really want to take supplies from Russia but we have no choice” https://t.co/fzAXIO4N0x
EM Rally and Strong Dollar: Unsustainable, Breaks Quickly
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Iran's Transit Fee Hikes Oil, LNG, and Shipping Prices
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
Short ZAR/USD as Strong Dollar Presses South African Rand
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
Oil Prices Stay High Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict
I talked to @kairyssdal on @Marketplace yesterday about the latest developments in oil and what to make of the latest switcheroo in the conflict with Iran. I don't think this conflict is over by a long shot, so I doubt...
ETFs Dominate Trading, Fueling Shorting and Volatility
Citadel on Flows: - ETFs have accounted for ~35% of trading volume over the past three weeks, peaking at 47%, and setting a record streak above 35%. - This reflects active shorting via ETFs to reduce net exposure. - Levered end-of-day flows remain...
Germany Seeks Global Gas Suppliers Beyond the US
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is pushing gas companies to diversify beyond the US 🇩🇪 🚢 Reiche said Germany is also pursuing agreements with Angola, Mexico, Canada and other suppliers worldwide https://t.co/YsSeBtLmvB https://t.co/RPngivFPz4
Trump's Iran Conflict Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets
From Indian films to Italian wine, Trump’s Iran war ripples through the world economy https://t.co/nN8qmnNvwV via @Swatisays @LouKCurtis @mniquette https://t.co/oUjyH8kZ9O
African Metal Bans Threaten Chinese Battery Supply Investments
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Trump's Brand Expands Across GCC Amid Iran Tensions
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
Unexpected Small Nations Accelerate Global Economic Convergence
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Iran’s Fragmented Leadership Clouds US Negotiation Prospects
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.