Kharg Island's Role in US‑Iran Oil Tactics
Can the US "take the oil" from Iran? Does Kharg Island matter? And what can the GCC do about developing bypass pipelines? I discuss with @BeckyCNN @CNN
US Pullout May Open Door for Chinese Taiwan Attack
China. Taiwan Strait and threat on Taiwan. US has pulled military from Asia. Does that leave an opportunity for China to attack Taiwan? What would that do to supply chains?
Turkey's Overheated Growth Fuels Deficits, Risks Shock
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Turkey's Reserves Plunge, Echoing 2025 Devaluation After Mayor's Arrest
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
War's Goal: Reopen Strait of Hormuz
So the main objective of the war is now to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open before the war started. Got it https://t.co/4zzh9wHvya
Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran's Oil and Water Infrastructure
I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day. Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the...
Hedge Funds Capitulate: Record US Selloff and Europe Shorts Surge
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
West Asia Crisis Keeps Gold and Silver Prices Supported
Geopolitical Cushion: The West Asia crisis, now entering its fifth week, is providing a floor for prices. Investors are holding onto gold and silver as "safe-haven" assets to protect against uncertainty.
Trump, Iran Tensions Spike Oil Prices
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
No Nation Can Outpace China's AI or Military AI
JUST IN: Victor Gao states no nation, including the US, can dominate China in AI or military AI.
EU‑India Deal Slashes Tariffs, CBAM Remains Intact
The EU-India trade deal cuts tariffs, but CBAM stays unchanged and keeps carbon compliance in focus. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-and-cbam-remain-on.html
Five Months of Negative FDI Highlight India's Red‑Tape Crisis
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Net foreign direct investment (FDI) into India was a NEGATIVE $1.4B in January. That marks 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS of negative flows. INDIA’S MOUNTAIN OF GOVERNMENT RED TAPE = REPELS FDI = BIG PROBLEM.
FX Reserve Decline Driven by Oil Importers, Not Exporters
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Military Plans Overlook Political, Market Limits on Hormuz
Former CENTCOM commander says the US can & will open Hormuz I think he's taking the narrowest military view He ignores the force of politics, markets & insurers to limit Trump's options on time & risk. 👇 https://t.co/Fw6ibZ5qLW https://t.co/shLc2VcgAj
Iran’s Ideological Purge Mirrors CCP, Stifling Regime Change
Also, Iran has an office of the supreme leader that ensures all civil servants are ideologically pure. Similar to the CCP's Organization Department that keeps file of every party member. Any dissent is quickly crushed. So the probability of a...
Saudi Crown Prince Urges US to Sustain Iran War
🚨 Report: Saudi Arabia Pushing for Escalation? New reports suggest Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is privately urging the U.S. to maintain its military campaign against Iran, viewing it as a "historic opportunity" to reshape the Middle East. Key Takeaways: •...
Iran's Resource Crisis Threatens Global Energy and Food Security
We are getting to that point of doom on Iran where X got to on Ukraine. Back then without gas and food we were going to be cholipping frozen, starved, dead Europeans of the streets. This time it's oil, gas,...
Energy Shock Could Trigger Demand Collapse, Slowing US Growth
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
Putin Thrives as U.S. Pivots Away From Russia’s Sanctions.
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
Houthis Threaten Bab El-Mandeb Closure, Endangering Global Food Supply
Yemeni Houthis has entered the Iran War, they are now considering closing Bab El Mandeb Strait. It is estimated that 12% of the world's trade passes through here. The FAO chief economist has already warned of potential global risks to...
Closing Hormuz: Strategic Disruption, Not Just Conflict
They were always going to close the Strait of Hormuz. This was never a side development. It was central to the strategy. Because the objective isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption: energy flows, shipping routes, and the systems that rely on them. That changes the...
India’s Growth Holds, Nifty Upside Limited – Favor Quality Stocks
Macro: India’s growth intact; NIFTY shows limited near‑term upside. Drivers: rich valuations, slowing earnings, FII outflows. Risks: higher oil, tighter global liquidity. Trade: trim cyclicals; buy quality domestics. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Retaliation on Gulf Energy Could Trigger Global Depression
If Israel/US attack Iranian oil fields and power plants, they are not going to sit back...they'll attack oil fields, desalinisation plants and power assets in the Gulf. Then, we'll get an economic depression.
100k Troops in Iran Signal Prolonged War, Inflation Surge
The ‘100k troops on land in Iran’ is the new risk narratives for prolonged war and confirmation of escalation of inflation which would lead in global rate hikes again. Rumble in the Jungle is here…
Iran's Inflation Drops, Oil Exports Surge Amid War
My latest with @davidlin_TV on Iran: "Since the war started, Iran's inflation has come down from 87% to 67%. Iranian oil exports have increased substantially at higher prices with lower discounts. You won't read these FACTS in the press." https://t.co/tnO36Tw8XU
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Japan Redirects Naphtha Imports Amid Middle East Reliance
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Immigrants Expand Demand, Creating New Jobs
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
US Empire Decline Confirmed, Eastern Powers Ascend
Back in 2010 on @cnbc , I warned that the American empire was entering a phase of rapid decline, and that Eastern powers would rise to fill the vacuum. 📉That forecast is now unfolding in real time. This isn’t hindsight....
Iran Conflict Erases $12 Trillion, Global Stocks Drop $11.5 Tr
Meanwhile, the conflict in Iran has already wiped about $12 trillion off global markets. Many investors are selling off assets due to the risk of escalation and rising oil prices. As a result, the total capitalization of the global stock market...
Vietnam's Economy Thrives; To Lam Emerges as Reformer
Vietnam's macro situation is so impressive. And To Lam seems to be more of a reformer than I initially thought. https://t.co/pKtcfrLTG6
India Gains Global Market Share Across Industries
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Houthis May Keep Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait Open
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
Europe Stuck Between China Dependency and US Reliance
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
China-U.S. Parity Threatens Europe, Gulf Eyes New Alliance
These are hard words, and will create resentment. Fact of the matter is that they are true. China and US are equals and in a few years China could be stronger than US in many ways. Therefore Dunroe doctrine is...
Hormuz Controls Global Economy; Oil Flow Secures War Viability
Let me be clear @LukeGromen: Hormuz is the global economy. If you couldn’t secure oil flows, you had no business starting a war that could put the world here. No aspirations. Just hard reality.
Iran War Erases $12 Trillion, Surpassing Three Major Economies
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Bosai's Indonesia Smelter Signals China's Overseas Capacity Surge
Bosai plans an Indonesia aluminium smelting project in East Java, highlighting China’s accelerating overseas capacity strategy. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/bosai-indonesia-aluminium-smelting.html
Xi's Push for Intensive Growth Faces Execution Hurdles
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Supply Chains
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...