Turkey's January Trade Deficit Hits Near‑worst, Lira Tumbles
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This is why Lira is falling. https://t.co/7shtWiTjXb https://t.co/fY3kQMplD2
Brazil Real Rebounds to 4.50 as Dollar Weakens
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
U.S. Sends 100 Advisors to Train Nigeria Post‑Airstrike
Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
UBS Predicts 20% Chinese Stock Rally on Inflation
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
Trump's Pressure Pushes Modi to Diversify India’s Trade Partners
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
China’s Role: Minor Export Market, Major Input Supplier, CNY Undervalued
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Nuanced Take: BoP Deficit Matters,
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
Decoding Congress's 1975 Balance‑of‑Payments Language
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
China’s Long‑Term Naval Strategy Redefines Global Power
China’s strategy isn’t short term. It’s structural. Every dominant power in history controlled the seas. Trade routes determine power. Naval dominance determines the future. The Pacific is only the beginning. Understanding this shift is critical to understanding what comes next. Link in bio to learn more. #China...
Germany Urges China to Let RMB Appreciate, Reversing Stance
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
EM Currencies Surge, Yet Turkish Lira Slides Amid High Carry
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
Rial Depreciates as US Threats Loom Over Iran
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
Dollar Slides vs EM, Brazil's Real Hits Two-Year High
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
South Sudan Lacks Reliable Money Data, Undermining Accountability
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Tech Exports Drive 5% GDP, 7% Jobs in India
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
China’s 5-Year Plan Boosts Energy Security, Regional Self‑Reliance
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
S&P Stagnates as Global, Small‑Cap, Value Stocks Surge
WSJ: While the S&P 500 has wrenched up and down but gone pretty much nowhere this year, international, emerging-market, small stocks and value stocks have taken off. https://t.co/eRPZ3CVqAy
Yen Rebounds, Forint Climbs, Yuan Rallies Onward
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
Indonesian-Chinese Shift Assets to Singapore, I’d Follow
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Turkey's Reserve Losses Signal Strong Depreciation Pressure
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
Starlink Blackout Isolates Russian Troops, Fuels Ukrainian Gains
Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Q0eHcVCvu2 #ukrainewar #geopolitics
China’s Scale‑Subsidy Strategy Decimates Global Industries
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
Ramadan Continues Amid Libya’s 56% Annual Inflation.
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
Net‑Zero 2050 Dead, Fossil Fuels Essential, Solar Booms
COLUMN: Net zero by 2050 is effectively dead: Oil, natural gas and coal will remain crucial for meeting the world's energy needs. But that doesn't mean the end of renewable energy. Solar, in particular, is thriving, and will continue to...
Shanghai Loosens Homebuying Rules to Combat Property Slump
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Yuan Deposits Rise, Household Growth Slows, Non‑bank Surge Persists
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
Spring Festival 2026 Consumer Sales Jump 13.7% YoY
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
WSJ Dismisses Balance of Payments, Sparks Skepticism
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Vaca Muerta's Promise Stalls Behind Fiscal and Infrastructure Hurdles
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Eli Lilly's 2025 Irish Tax Bill Doubles U.S.
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
France Revives Interventionist
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
PBOC Buying $100B Monthly to Curb Yuan Surge
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
Five Probable Paths to End Ukraine War
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Venezuela Leads Global Inflation Surge, Followed by NK, Iran
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
US Government Fails to Push Firms Toward Supply‑Chain Security
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Europe Must Block Chinese‑Made Cars From Flooding Market
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
Investing Strategies Aligned with the Big Cycle
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
IMF: China Too Big to Export Out Its Malaise
“I recently spoke with experts at the International Monetary Fund, who put the problem bluntly: China is simply too big to keep exporting its way out of its own internal malaise.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/nsBIj0UbEq
Chinese Banks Pivot From US Treasuries to Diversified Reserves
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
Turkey's Core Current Account Deficit Surpasses Pre‑2018 Levels
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm