US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more oil from us so it will be easier to choke out both China & Russia?" 🤦♂️ https://t.co/ScdU561M1A
US ISR Support to Ukraine Raises Escalation Risks
Last March, the New York Times wrote that the US was supplying detailed ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) to Ukraine so that Ukraine could more effectively kill Russian targets (with US-made weapons.) We appear to be approaching dangerous territory. https://t.co/aBoGhQCU2x
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Jakarta Stock Exchange Posts 5% Canary Signal
One market that has shown a recent 5% canary signal with confirmation is Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange. https://t.co/dls4RSmwO4
S&P and Dow Hit Record Tightest Yearly Range
“This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896.” *Which way will it break? https://t.co/DQuNzpgPKG
US Pressures Ukraine to Spare Russian Energy Assets
The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/XGHjzTaHH8 #ukrainewar #militarystrike #geopolitics https://t.co/lB8qnpN0Kx
FPIs Net Buy 22,000 Cr Equity In
FPIs bought 22,000 cr in equity in Feb. (And uhem, they sold 17K cr. on Monday + Wednesday) https://t.co/bmXFAXJ1aZ
Govt Prioritizes Stability, Market Unimpressed by Incremental Targets
This is a useful table, and shows the revealed preference by the govt for stability, and to keep the current policy structure essentially on track. I don’t think many or any thought different. That said, there are a few things...
India VIX Shows Iran War Risk Already Priced In
Have we discounted the IRAN war risk in markets? Using the India VIX to consider the idea that the worst of our fears may already be in the market https://t.co/LzpXAJuIYv https://t.co/H4WBbxWV2k
Asia Faces Modest Growth, Rising Defense, Soaring Energy Costs
On @CNBC in an hour to discuss Asia (China and India). China growth target is soft but same as many expected which is 4.5% to 5%. Defence spending rises officially +7% but many say real spending increase higher. The headlines are really about...
China Sets Historic Low Growth Target, Signaling Slower Era
China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth—Beijing sets historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5% @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu @ByXiaoXiao https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw
Israel, U.S. Target Iran's Leadership, Undermining Negotiations
Israel and the U.S. are steadily eliminating Iran’s top leadership, including figures capable of negotiating an end to the conflict... Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to watch the full video ➡️ https://t.co/R47Ca3Pp6h #iranwar #military #geopolitics https://t.co/HS9nDRCPcB
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
History Shows Most Nations Experience Mass Displacement—Stay Mobile
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Emerging Markets Strength Offers Pullback Opportunity for Late Investors
investors who've missed the emerging markets $EEM absolute + relative strength are offered a (relative) pullback against... https://t.co/SjnvdgBiKB
South Asian Fertilizer Output Slips Amid Qatar LNG Outage
Fertilizer manufacturers in South Asia are beginning to cut output due to an outage at Qatar’s LNG export plant ⚠️ 🇮🇳 Some Indian manufacturers started reducing production at urea plans 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s gas distributor declared FM on to fertiliser plants https://t.co/LUjKJcUg25
Markets Consolidate Amid APAC Slide, Japan Threatens Intervention
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
Thailand, South Korea Lead Asia’s Oil‑Shock Market Turmoil
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...
Retail‑Heavy Korean Market Crashes, Triggers Circuit Breaker
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
Venezuela Leads, Five Nations Face Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
Iran's Inflation Hits 87.2%, World’s Third‑Highest Rate
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
Bitcoin Isn't for Everyone, Says Stafford Masie
The first 15 seconds are a major truth bomb: Bitcoin isn't for YOU... Don't miss this incredible interview with Stafford Masie : https://lnkd.in/gv-p2v8M
Gulf Interceptor Shortage Forces Costly Missile Reliance
The Gulf states are rapidly running out of interceptors. They have already burned through more than half their stockpile trying to stop low-cost Shahed drones, and soon they may have to ignore drones entirely to conserve missiles for ballistic threats. That...
Geopolitics Decoded: Investment Insights Ahead of Headlines
Thoughts? Follow @tallguytycoon - I break down geopolitical events and how they impact investments before the news does.
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
State Department Urges All Americans to Exit MENA Region
US Department of State instructs all American civilians to leave the Middle East North Africa region.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
Undervalued Sector Becomes Top Global Equity Hedge
The sector no one wanted… …is now the best pure global Equity hedge: *Diversification wins again? https://t.co/MveBoNSYU0
AI-Driven Market Dispersion Hits Multi-Decade Highs
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
Yuan Gains Return Real Exchange Rate to 2024 Levels
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Low Tariffs Make New Trade Deals Marginal; Boost Domestic Demand
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
War Undermines Plans, Makes Predictions Fragile
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Sulphur, Hikes African Copper Leaching Costs
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
Iran’s Missiles Wane, Drones Persist; Energy Targets Spark Crisis
Day 3 of the Iran War has seen Iran's missile launches declining, while drone attacks remain steady. Energy infrastructure is now being targeted, so an energy crisis is on everyone's mind. #crude #crudeoil #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/Y2ccPnnB22
US Haven Status Threatened, yet Likely to Fade
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the S&P
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 14 months later: South Korea +204%, Peru +143%, South Africa +108% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/2Lpruh2h0i
Dollar Rally Hits All EM; Oil Ties Soon Diverge
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
China’s Two Sessions Reveal Economic Outlook Amid High Stakes
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy—Beijing’s target-setting takes place against a high-stakes backdrop https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV
Japanese Investment in China Jumps 55% Amid Tensions
“At a time when Tokyo and Beijing appear to be drifting further apart politically, Japanese capital is moving in the opposite direction…Japanese foreign direct investment into China surged by 55.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025.” https://t.co/osyTCAOqOp
Iran Conflict Spurs Oil, Markets, Crypto, Uranium Opportunities
Thoughts? The Iran war and oil crisis affect your money across four key areas: oil prices and inflation, stock market volatility, cryptocurrency movements, and overlooked opportunities in uranium and energy security stocks.