Iran War Prep, UK Drift, China Gains: US Crisis
Devastating frontpage for America. 1/ Iran preparing for prolonged war 2/ UK leaning away from US alliance 3/ strength in China's bond market due to the Iran war What a disaster. https://t.co/XMURlfO7uv
Iran Turns Hormuz Passage Into Paid ‘Peace’ Toll
Iran’s ‘Tollbooth’ Tightens Grip on Hormuz as Ships Offered Safe Passage—For a Price. Will this be the “peace” of the war? https://t.co/cD3EleDx1i
Erdoğan Warns War Extension Could Spark Regional Conflict
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned prolonging the war risks triggering a broader regional conflict, saying any new fronts would serve Israel’s “bloody strategy,” and vowed Turkey will act “without hesitation” to ensure peace. https://t.co/dy6Disl4Q7
Iran Risk Unpriced Despite Trump's Stone Age Threat
Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this: "Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Trump, last night. Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In https://t.co/pIYOLN90wD
Macron Calls Military Reopening of Hormuz Unrealistic, Urges Iran Dialogue
French President Emmanuel Macron says it is "unrealistic" to think the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened through military means. "We must be able to reopen this strait because it’s strategic [...] but it can only be done in consultation with...
Drone Attacks Force Unavoidable Russian Oil Output Cuts
Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7
China Poised to Benefit From Iran War Dynamics
In the days after the Iran war started, Erica Downs and I wrote @ForeignPolicy about why despite large oil and imports through the strait, China could be a counterintuitive winner. This week’s @TheEconomist captures the dynamic well, far beyond...
Caution Needed Before Declaring China Iran War’s Biggest Beneficiary
In this, some pushback against the view born of speculation or political prejudice that China is the biggest winner of the Iran war, innit? The args are warnings and poss serious but there is much to weigh b4 jumping to...
China Drives One‑Third of Global Growth Since 2000s
China has become a major engine of the global economy since joining the WTO in 2001, with its share of global production rising from 2% in 1995 to 16% in 2018 & as growing source of final demand. China accounted...
New Geopolitics & Markets Insight for Subscribers
April 2, 2026, 4:50 AM, website comment for subs on geopolitics and markets. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/tWw5e5VWPG
China Clamps Down on Consumer Lending, Forces Lower Rates
Interesting Caixin article on China’s intensifying crackdown on the consumer lending and loan-facilitation business, with regulators summoning major platforms for talks and pressing the industry to sharply curb borrowing costs. https://t.co/BIv3i5trGx
China to Top CNY400 Bn R&D Spend by 2026
Yicai: "Beijing's expenditure on science and technology is expected to break through CNY400 billion (USD58 billion) for the first time in 2026, with a greater emphasis on basic research, as the country ramps up funding to drive innovation and strengthen...
China's EV Surge Cushions Potential Hormuz Oil Shutdown
China imports the most oil via the Strait of Hormuz but is also one of the best placed to weather its closure. EVs are part of that story. Five years ago China targeted 20% of new vehicles in 2025. They...
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Global Strategy Drives Disruptive, Long-Term Geopolitical Conflict
This was never a local conflict. What looks regional is built on years of preparation, alignment, and strategy. Different actors. Shared objectives. Long-term planning. And the focus isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption at scale: energy flows, shipping routes, and global systems. That’s what makes this different. Not short. Not...
China's Solar Surge Powers the Next AI Race
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗔𝗜 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘁𝘁𝘀. And right now, one country is moving faster than everyone else. China is not just “going green.” It’s building scale most economies can’t match. What stands out to me is...
China Likely Remains Cautious on Iran Mediation, Not Catalyst
Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negotiations? That is a key question we tried to answer in our China Macro Watch report released yesterday. While markets and diplomats anticipate a more proactive Chinese role in mediating the Iran conflict,...
India's Emissions Plan Spurs Grid and Battery Investments
India’s new emissions-reduction plans offer significant investment opportunities in sectors related to grid upgrades and storage batteries, according to one of the country’s largest climate-focused funds https://t.co/JLBiDWCCaC
Gulf War Triggers Asian Price, Debt, Scarcity Crisis
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Hormuz Closure Amplifies Global Trade, Inflation, Financial Strain
Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance Latest @UNCTAD report on Hormuz 1⃣Energy corridor halted: The Strait of Hormuz remains “practically closed,” disrupting a critical share of global oil and gas flows. 2⃣Trade losing momentum: Global merchandise trade is...
Trump Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV
Iran Sees Conflict as Chance to Expel US Influence
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
Trump’s Slip Could Derail Xi Meeting’s Trade Agenda
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?
Beijing’s 2002 Strategy Exploited US’s War on Terror
Left: "Much of Beijing's current strategy toward the US was laid down in 2002, when the CCP concluded China faced an unprecedented 20-year 'period of strategic opportunity' [due to] the GWOT distracting US leaders." Right: Cover of this week's The Economist...
Yuan Replaces Dollars for Iran Strait Transit, Signaling Currency Clash
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Iran Offers Ceasefire for Strait Access, US Demands Opening
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
Oil Shocks Fade; Markets Typically Rebound Within Months
Military conflicts and oil shocks are nothing new. We’ve been through this many times. Yes, they create uncertainty and shake things up, but historically oil has come back down within a few months, and stocks often start moving higher not...
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
U.S. Must Rethink Oil‑Security Ties with Diversifying Gulf States
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
China Poised to Weather Hormuz Oil Shutdown
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
China Poised to Capture Market as Iran War Reshapes Trade
Iran war gives Chinese exporters chance to grab global market share Ample oil reserves and renewables growth make manufacturing sector more resilient than rivals https://t.co/Zm287YiQYa via @ft
Markets Hope for Middle East Peace, Expect Consolidation
The capital markets are being driven by hope that the Middle East war ends shortly. Markets are anticipatory. Still, they do not always get it right. Ahead of POTUS speech tonight, consolidation may be most likely scenario. https://t.co/6peh5F9uHH https://t.co/aae8efFiPO
South Sudan Blind Without Money Supply Data Since Oct 2024
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = FLYING BLIND https://t.co/nPGh0aY8rq
China Leverages Pakistan to Stabilize Hormuz, Bypassing U.S.
China is moving to stabilize Hormuz without the U.S.—using Pakistan as a diplomatic bridge. Power shifts to whoever restores the flows. https://t.co/3LW8TIyS65 #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #China
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
US‑aligned Control of Hormuz Signals Bullish Market Outlook
If usa friendly regime takes control of strait of Hormuz it will be very bullish., https://t.co/bpWTMUPjFa
Uneven Global Convergence: Asia Surges, Japan Declines
The divergence is striking. China’s GDP per capita grew more than 10x since 2000. India and Russia followed with strong gains. At the same time, Japan saw a decline. This isn’t just growth. It’s a redistribution of economic momentum. Some economies are accelerating rapidly. Others are stabilizing or stagnating. The...
US‑Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, but Europe’s Inflation Stays Modest
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
China Accelerates Local Debt Cleanup via Central Debt Swap
1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." https://t.co/Ru3dUFDjL5
China and India: BRICS’ Demographic and Economic Powerhouses
There are two elephants in the BRICS room, China and India. They not only have a combined population of over 2.8 BILLION, but economic firepower too. https://t.co/nrI5ZlnwBg
Rising Oil Prices Could Trim India's Growth Outlook
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s 7.0% - 7.4% growth outlook will be downgraded. Harvard Prof and former First Deputy Managing Director of IMF Gita Gopinath warns that if OIL AVERAGES $85-$100 PER BARREL, INDIA LOSES 0.5-1% OF GROWTH. MODI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
India Doubles Russian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g