Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Nasdaq is contorting its own index rules to court the IPOs of SpaceX et al, and @thekrazykobra brings the 🔥 https://t.co/ExpsatLZ6h https://t.co/VjWaHmMJYd
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
China’s strategy isn’t short term. It’s structural. Every dominant power in history controlled the seas. Trade routes determine power. Naval dominance determines the future. The Pacific is only the beginning. Understanding this shift is critical to understanding what comes next. Link in bio to learn more. #China...
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
WSJ: While the S&P 500 has wrenched up and down but gone pretty much nowhere this year, international, emerging-market, small stocks and value stocks have taken off. https://t.co/eRPZ3CVqAy
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Q0eHcVCvu2 #ukrainewar #geopolitics
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
COLUMN: Net zero by 2050 is effectively dead: Oil, natural gas and coal will remain crucial for meeting the world's energy needs. But that doesn't mean the end of renewable energy. Solar, in particular, is thriving, and will continue to...
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
“I recently spoke with experts at the International Monetary Fund, who put the problem bluntly: China is simply too big to keep exporting its way out of its own internal malaise.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/nsBIj0UbEq
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
