Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in power... https://t.co/7shtWiTjXb https://t.co/p3EFaGD7ut
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
Interesting on many levels. Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ... https://t.co/7m06uOU5eQ
when you get involved in some random chinese stock you are exposing yourself to risk of coordinated manipulation. this is why for years we have cautioned our traders to not be short illiquid chinese stocks. the scale of coordination⬇️⬇️⬇️
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Cheap Chinese EVs are boon, until the company goes bust. "Neta Auto’s parent company filed for bankruptcy last year after failing to pay wages, stranding customers in Thailand without after-sales support. Singulato, Aiways, Byton, and Levdeo have all shut down." https://restofworld.org/2026/china-ev-exports-competition-price/
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal, as per the SC, and he's going to have to work with Congress and subject to the law now to sustain the tariff regime in various other ways. Or go back to court. China and...
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW
Trump is his own China desk (and his own USTR) Brilliant reporting from @dimi of the FT (Strikes me as a very fair summary of the inside DC debate on China) 1/ https://t.co/SYfGL5iROn
China signals looser policy and faster green transition for 2026, supporting steel and non-ferrous demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/china-2026-economic-policy-direction.html
Kyle Chan: "China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts." https://t.co/1Z2o8dcRWq
Reuters: "German businesses warned of what they called destabilising and unfair global business practices by China, accusing Beijing of driving overcapacity, massive subsidies, distortive foreign-exchange policies and politically motivated export controls. https://t.co/701kYKGi2T
SCMP: "High-speed rail services are already accessible in 97 per cent of Chinese cities with populations of more than 500,000, the State Council said in December." https://t.co/bD3P6HUata
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
According to the China Global South Project, in 2025, trade between China and Africa reached $348 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa rose 25.8% to $225 billion, while African exports to China rose 5.4% to $123 billion. https://t.co/RFFOLMKVsP
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Asia as global manufacturing hub, shown by the ILO. More sources featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/bpfQbXlbHK
So does the US have a balance of payments deficit for purposes of section 122 of the trade law (and thus the basis for imposing a 15% tariff). It is an interesting question 1/ many https://t.co/JidbJk37vw
When it comes to Trump's tariff threats on China, it's clear that chairman Xi holds all the cards. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/ACGdxKxjr0
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
Thank you to President @LulaOficial, Minister @asilveiramg & Minister Vieira for their request for 🇧🇷 to become an @IEA Member Very happy IEA Members unanimously decided at our Ministerial to start the process for 🇧🇷’s full membership in a major step for...
🔴 IRAN WAR RISK IS ESCALATING FAST Military buildup. Failing diplomacy. Rising oil volatility. Subscribers have been tracking the escalation path and the market consequences before the headlines. Know what comes next. ⚠️Subscribe now on website⚠️ #Iran #Geopolitics #WarRisk #Oil #GlobalRisk
Thursday, Indonesia’s Pres. Prabowo signed a one-sided US-Indonesia trade deal. Indonesia was slammed with a 19% tariff, while nearly all IDN tariffs on the US were eliminated. In contrast, P.M. Modi has wisely not signed a U.S.–India deal. INDIA LEAVES INDONESIA IN...
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth find at Minamitorishima sounds like a game-changer. And on paper, it is. The 50-50 mix of light and heavy rare earths is impressive, especially since heavy elements are the truly scarce ones. The bad news is it’s...
