Labor Market Rebounds After Shutdown, Easing Temporary Layoffs
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned as well. Take the win one month at a time. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/january-2026-jobs-report.html
2027 AI Race: Align or Lose Human Relevance
🚨 From Agent-1 to Superintelligence: The AI 2027 Scenario The AI 2027 Report outlines one of the most thought-provoking trajectories for artificial intelligence: a rapid evolution from simple assistants (Agent-1) to autonomous, adversarially misaligned systems (Agent-4) and ultimately to Agent-5...
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops: GDP Gains Confirm Strength
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
Historical Cycles Link US Inequality, Deficits, and Global Populism
The changes in the US over the last decade — rising inequality, massive deficits, and a shifting global outlook — are not isolated events. They are all interconnected and part of a dynamic that has occurred many times before for...
Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Savings Claim Ignores Fixed-Rate Debt
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
NFPs Surge Past Forecasts, yet 2025 Revisions Cut Million
#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57
January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
President's Attempt to Manipulate Job Data Failed
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...
2025 Job Growth Halved by New BLS Revision
Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
Global Earnings Boom Ends S&P’s EAFE Uptrend
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
Manufacturing Payrolls Rise, Private Jobs Surge, Unemployment Falls
First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA
Strong Payrolls Fail to Boost Dollar, Correlation Shifts
Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
US Backs Coal Revival as Indonesia Slashes Output
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
One Sector Drives All US Job Growth, Others Lose
The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA
North Korea's Inflation Hits 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr
Strong Earnings, Modest Overvaluation—Boom, Not Bubble
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
Strong January Jobs, Lower Unemployment Boost USD Despite Cut Expectations
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.
Strong NFP Spurs Fed Pause, Dollar Gains, Market Pullback
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
January Jobs Surge: Payrolls +130k, Unemployment at 4.3%
Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...
BIS Chief Meets ECB to Discuss Current Economic Trends
Glad to welcome @BIS_org General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos back to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion on the latest economic developments. https://t.co/NiOrDgbMRV
Trump's Blockade Halts Cuba's Jet Fuel Exports
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump’s blockade, Cuba can no longer supply jet fuel to international airlines. Stay tuned. https://t.co/I5GxUM3wGq
Europe Trades Russian Gas for US LNG, Risks New Dependency
“I think Greenland was a wake-up call. There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another.” This is what I told the Wall Street Journal about Europe’s increasing dependence on US LNG following the end of Russian...
USD Soft, JPY Squeeze Persists, Oil Spikes on Iran Tension
$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...
Emerging Economies Drive 80% of Electricity Growth
A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw
NEC Director Predicts Slightly Lower Jobs, NFP May Miss Forecast
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...
Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
India Plans to Lift Bank FDI Cap, Boosting Lending
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO
Nigeria's Inflation Surge Linked to Excess Money Supply
Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf
Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
Detroit Bridge Owner Lobbies Hours Before Trump Critic
SCOOP: Detroit Billionaire Owner of Ambassador Bridge Lobbied Administration, Met With Howard Lutnick Monday, Hours Before Trump Lambasted New Detroit-Michigan Gordie Howe Bridge w/ @tylerpager #cdnpoli https://t.co/A1JpN7GgU0
Russia's Economy Outpaces UK Despite Sanctions
A dirty little secret that the Russiaphobes in London keep under the rug: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS OUTPACING THE UK’S. SANCTIONS = BACKFIRE = RARELY WORK. https://t.co/FLcUb0QXGw
US Political Will to Aid Venezuela Near Zero
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Professor Jeff Sachs on Venezuela: “The will to run Venezuela other than maybe in Marco Rubio's and Donald Trump's head is zero in the United States… a year from now, Venezuela is a forgotten issue in the United...
Climax Top Signals Bear Market for Precious Metals
OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
New BLS Commissioner Signals Positive Economic Outlook Amid Trump
I'm trying something new: Video essays exploring recent economic developments. There's... a lot to talk about these days. Here's the first one: Thoughts on Trump, the BLS, and the new BLS Commissioner. Spoiler: This is a good news story. https://t.co/M4NltoNXJR
U.S. Stocks Under Pressure as SPX/VEU Hits Near Two‑Year Low
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...
Unemployment Rises to 4.5%, Signaling Market Underperformance
"So what does the job market data say to you?" "It says that we're underperforming right now... The thing that matters most to people's lives is the unemployment rate. Can you find work? And that was as low as...
UAE’s GDP per Capita Fell, Saudi Arabia Modestly Rose
The headlines from the UAE always scream “Hot Growth.” But when compared to its arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, the UAE looks dreadful. Since 2008, the UAE’s GDP per capita shrank while the Kingdom’s grew modestly. https://t.co/aXuH6QU5nj
AI Threatens S&P's Analytics, Not Its Core Ratings
About 65% of $SPGI's (down >20% over past month) pre-tax earnings come from ratings & indices. The potential challenge that AI poses to S&P's analytics/consulting/intel business is something I get. But I don't understand AI's bear case for ratings & indices,...
Mexico's Inflation On Target, Money Supply Within Golden Growth
Mexico’s inflation rate is ON TARGET at 3.65%/yr Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 7.91%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent with Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/4w05Yr94Mz
Dollar Weakening as Diverging Policies Boost Global Assets
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
Weak Retail, Slowing Wages Hint at Poor NFP
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...
US Stocks Look Strong, Yet Lag Global Peers
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
Dollar Stabilizes, Still Strong vs G10; Yen Diverges
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
AI Cheapens Services, Cutting Vendor Profits, Boosting Productivity
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
Dollar Steadies, Yen Rebounds; US 10‑yr Dips Below
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Dollar vs EM Hits New Low, Signaling Further Weakness
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
Macron Urges EU to Adopt Eurobonds Now
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
Markets Could Slip If Data Undermines Fed Cut Hopes
Stock markets may sour if this week’s US economic data casts doubt on Fed rate cut speculation. #stockmarkets #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #USD #Macro #trading https://t.co/ZEfchApMC0
AI's Real Divide: Users vs Non‑users of Machines
AI anxiety often misses the key margin: it’s not “humans vs machines,” it’s “humans who use machines vs humans who don’t.” The tech shifts who’s productive—and who gets paid. Remember, you don't need to outrun the bear. https://t.co/jULdqTdCrU