Iran's Toll Booth Threat Could Shut Global Trade
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran’s “Toll Booth” Plan Threatens Global Trade This is a big one, folks. Prof Rob Huebert, @UCalgary, discusses international maritime law and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://youtu.be/nPQMTWEySvE
BOE Chief Warns Against Delaying Action on UK Inflation
BOE Chief Economist Pill warns against delay in tackling the UK price surge https://t.co/n95GeLSJkw via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/tsXgjiGiAe
Rising Gas Prices Hurt 55% of Americans, Undermining Trump
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
Iran War Drives Up Gas, Food, Housing Costs
The war in Iran may seem like 7,000 miles away, but it’s arrived here- showing up at the pump, in your grocery bill, and in a housing market that’s only getting harder to afford. More in my newsletter, ‘This War...
German Growth Drag Stems From Both Imports and Exports
Is the big drag from net exports on German growth from imports or from exports? It is of course from both. This is the data for nominal trade with China for the full euro area (no...
Trump's Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher Longer
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe Chart
Oil Expert Claims Hormuz Strait Unnecessary, Misreads Market
Guy who clearly understands how oil markets work: "see, we never needed the Strait of Hormuz 😏"
Polymarket Predicts 55% Chance of US Invading Iran
According to @Polymarket, there is a 55% chance US forces enter Iran by the end of April. Forget Trump’s talk of the art of the deal. He takes his orders from Jerusalem. https://t.co/GgrtwQc8kz
Rising Mortgage Rates Threaten Struggling Canadian Housing Market
If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising What Happens To The Canadian Housing Market? We have seen some Fixed Mortgage Rates rise nearly 20% since the Middle East War began: depends on which Bank & length of term Important: the War could end Friday...
S&P Nears Selling Climax Amid Deep Valuation Drop
In the table below, we see that the drawdown in the S&P 500 has now reached 7.6%, with breadth reaching moderately oversold levels. That drawdown masks a far bigger decline in valuations, with the trailing P/E down 20%. The MSCI EAFE and...
US Launches $1T Pax Silica Fund to Secure Supply Chains
The New "Pax Silica" Fund The Trump Administration is establishing a Supply Chain Fund. The "Pax Silica" fund will support energy, semiconductor, and critical materials. The US will commit $250M, and partners will include Singapore, the UAE, Qatar, and Sweden. The...
Sulphur Prices Surge 40% Amid Existing Deficit
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Short ZAR/USD as Strong Dollar Presses South African Rand
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
Explaining This Week’s Mortgage, Oil, and Bond Turmoil
@housingwire @sarahteresa6 We try to explain the madness if this week with #mortgagerates #oil and #bonds with this conflict. #economics #chartdaddy
Closing the Strait Threatens Demand, Requires Immediate Action
This is how you begin to destroy demand. Much more will be necessary if the Strait doesn't reopen soon.
DXY‑Oil Pair Hides Slow Margin Tax
$DXY firm + oil firm is the combo nobody wants to model. It’s a slow tax on margins that shows up AFTER the ‘soft landing’ victory lap. https://t.co/ocSH3ICv0N
Exports Decline Since 2022 Breaks Trade Symmetry
Exports have been falling since 2022. In normal times, one would expect symmetric growth in exports and imports, (offsetting contributions). The recent decline in exports is thus unusual https://t.co/KYVDyKfsJI
Supply Pressure Keeps Rates Elevated Amid Fed Pause
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
Finnish Unemployment Rises Amid Persistent Economic Slump
Finnish jobless rate continues to climb as the economy stays subdued https://t.co/kdTQxPFb9w via @KirsiHeikel https://t.co/R0C84aG7pw
EU Delays Announcement of Russian Oil Phase‑out Timeline
BRUSSELS, March 24 (Reuters) - The European Union does not have a new date to communicate regarding its plan to fully phase out Russian oil, previously scheduled for April 15, Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said on Tuesday.
Hormuz Closure Threatens 15 Million‑
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
Dollar’s Global Dominance Fuels US Deficit Persistence
Joseph Gagnon: "The most persistent driver of US deficits is the attractiveness of US financial assets to foreign investors owing to the central role of the dollar in international transactions and to the perceived safety and creativity of US financial...
Market Rally Fueled by Hype, Iran Risk Remains Unpriced
Fake News Saved The Market My morning rant Monday. Strong opinions held strongly.🙃 The short-covering bounce driven by headlines & algos, not fundamentals, doesn't change the fact: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN. $SPX $6666 –6718 as $DXY falls won't save us as yields...
Volatility Controllers Push Rates Down, New Acronyms Loom
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Middle East Conflict Will Drive Long-Term Energy Price Surge
Why the war in the Middle East will have long term impacts on energy prices and our energy security. I talked to TRT World last night. https://t.co/Tia1QYZDBJ
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Iran Blocks Strait, Traps 25 Million Barrels of Iraqi Oil
About 25 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude are trapped on tankers in the Gulf. Iran claims control of the passage — so why is it blocking Iraq’s oil? Does Iran want the Iraqi government to go bancrupt? العراق: نحو...
Australia, EU Finalize Trade Pact Amid US Tariff Pressure
"Australia and EU seal sensitive trade deal" https://t.co/SVt8r09Man "With U.S. President Donald Trump slamming tariffs on allies globally, Brussels and Canberra rekindled their negotiations last year." https://t.co/0jxir9qjN2
France Aids Farmers Affected by Iran War Fuel Surge
France moves to support farmers hurt by Iran war fuel spike https://t.co/LXQyz0tCcx via @nayrazz https://t.co/bjA6oRzKXS
Americans Despise Inflation yet Embrace Its Causes
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Tightening Finance Fuels Hard Asset Appeal Amid Rate Hikes
Hard assets, Oil and Gas in a multipolar world. Financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since the regional bank panic of 2023, rate hikes impact already happening, the opposite of White House wants. Join us @MorningsMaria in 5....
ECB Must Stay Alert to Emerging Stagflation Risks
ECB must be vigilant in face of stagflation risks, Vujcic says https://t.co/TJxut9isTf via @jaskuzmanovic https://t.co/HQiDucuNdh
Supreme Court Declares Trump's Tariffs Illegal, Enforces Proper Section 301
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs were illegal, forcing the administration to do things...the right way. Welcome to Section 301 investigations. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/clLUiPPPhq #tariffs #trump #economy https://t.co/En6Bk5ulRD
ECB Launches New Scrutiny of Banks' Private Credit Exposure
You can run, but you can't hide: ECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks’ Exposure to Private Credit https://t.co/nEqJE6yYDf
Germany Seeks Global Gas Suppliers Beyond the US
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is pushing gas companies to diversify beyond the US 🇩🇪 🚢 Reiche said Germany is also pursuing agreements with Angola, Mexico, Canada and other suppliers worldwide https://t.co/YsSeBtLmvB https://t.co/RPngivFPz4
Trump's Iran Conflict Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets
From Indian films to Italian wine, Trump’s Iran war ripples through the world economy https://t.co/nN8qmnNvwV via @Swatisays @LouKCurtis @mniquette https://t.co/oUjyH8kZ9O
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets 98% Below Normal
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
Trump’s Hormuz Remarks Threaten Petrodollar‑reserve Currency Pact
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
Navigating War, AI, and Central Bank Independence
Great conversation with Nicolai Tangen on the In Good Company podcast. From the uncertainty created by the war in the Middle East to the impact of AI and the importance of central bank independence, we covered a lot of ground. Listen...
African Metal Bans Threaten Chinese Battery Supply Investments
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Trump's Brand Expands Across GCC Amid Iran Tensions
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
Upcoming March EZ PMIs May Signal Three Rate Hikes
% min until the first EZ PMIs start to trickle in for March, with ERZ6 pricing in three hikes for this year. Let's see whether the latter holds. Remember,that the PMIs will tend to import this shock as "strength" via...
Unexpected Small Nations Accelerate Global Economic Convergence
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Pakistan Faces Energy Crunch as Qatar LNG Supply Dries
Almost 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year. Now, PAK import terminals are close to shutting down. Pakistan may be forced to turn to more EXPENSIVE and DIRTIER furnace oil to generate power. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
Chinese Automakers Outsell Japanese Rivals Globally for First Time
Xinhua: "Chinese automakers have surpassed their Japanese counterparts in global vehicle sales for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global automotive industry." https://t.co/PtNMiJISii
US Lifts Iran Sanctions, Hides Oil Shock Miscalculations
The US never thought through the possibility of an oil shock before its attacks, says @BarakRavid That's why it's lifting sanctions on Iran's oil That's not strategy That's trying to hide your mistakes And Iran still gets value from those barrels one way...
Third Manipulation Spike Pushes Brent to $104
Now, after the third incident of price manipulation, oil prices are rising again. Bent is about $104/b.
China Slashes Hi‑Tech Metal Shipments to Japan, Boosts Magnet Exports
China cuts some hi-tech metals sent to Japan – but magnet exports rise. Why? https://t.co/7TeFEq0KsX
Japan's Oil Imports Mostly Middle East, Review Ordered
"Takaichi Orders Review of Entire Supply Chain for Oil Products" I suspect the review will find that about 90-95% of #Japan’s oil imports come from Middle Eastern countries... https://t.co/hjPmFeOPov