Amid Iran War Hype, Hidden Trade Opportunity Emerges
Markets are jumping from one Iran war headline to the next, but look through the noise and this trade seems to be hiding in plain sight. #IranWar #Macro #Dollar #Trading #Markets https://t.co/iAgNNxmpff
Tariffs Boost Prices Now, Promise Uncertain Future Benefits
Tariffs raise prices now and gamble on benefits later—if they come at all. Meanwhile, retaliation and supply chain shifts hurt U.S. businesses. That’s not a clear “benefit.” And corporations don’t price based on taxes alone—they price based on what they...
Europe Braces for Iran War Fuel Shortages
Europe will soon face the same kind of fuel supply disruptions as Asia due to the war in Iran, says Shell’s CEO 🇪🇺 ⚠️ “If you look through the slate, jet fuel is already being impacted. Diesel will be next...
Russia Earmarks Oil Windfall for Welfare Fund, Cuts Spending Reliance
Consider the source, etc, but the official line from Russian govt is that O&G revenue windfall will go straight into rebuilding the (depleted) national welfare fund. And longer-term plan is to reduce role of O&G revenues in day-to-day spending. https://t.co/5QfNPsBYtV
US Q4 Productivity Slumps, AI Hype Stalls
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...
Everyone Navigates Iran War Oil Market Differently
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Iran Prefers JD Vance over Witkoff, Kushner for Talks
The Telegraph reports Iran does not want to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, they prefer JD Vance. https://t.co/EM6pghSciP
Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Iran War Unravels Integrated Global Energy System
Global Energy Shocks Explained by Top Economist Prof Severin Borenstein, UCBerkeley, about how a deeply integrated global energy system is being disrupted by the Iran war. #IranWar https://youtu.be/nB4mn1FG644
Global Unity Needed: Conflict Ends, Markets Rebound
You know what I would tell people on the street? To keep calm and remain optimistic. You have to keep in mind that EVERY NATION has stake in the game, whether it’s the Middle East, the US, China, Japan, it...
U.S. Pushes Month-Long Ceasefire for 15-Point Deal
The Times of Israel reports US administration working on a monthlong ceasefire period to negotiate a 15-point agreement. https://t.co/E2EyihE4Gt
Aluminum Prices Surge 12‑40% Amid US‑Israel Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm
Chaos in Middle East Markets Creates Trading Edge
The Middle East is on a KNIFE'S EDGE 🔪 Ceasefire talks. Marines steaming toward Hormuz. Saudis sharpening their knives. Oil dumping on every headline 🛢️💥 Markets are an absolute WARZONE right now But here's the cold hard truth... CHAOS = EDGE for those who...
Inflation, ECB Hikes, and Gold Dip Buying Explored
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
Trump's Iran Strategy: Seize Oil Infrastructure, Risk Escalation
trump wants a win in iran. one option? take the oil infrastructure and hold it. that would be a massive escalation. @gzeromedia
Markets Surge as Israel Fears Trump’s Quick Iran Deal
After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are...
Iran's Strait Fees Prompt Calls for Counter-Embargo
We go to war and end up getting embargoed by Iran, which is now charging protection fees for oil tankers to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That's nuts. If Iran can embargo us with a couple of drones, we...
Iran Holds Leverage; Trump Appears Forced Into Ceasefire
Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the Strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that to even get off the ground Iran would need...
Oil Surplus Dwarfed by Massive Asian Capital Excess
Three big picture observations about the oil surplus (petrodollars/ petroeuros/ petroequities are all downstream of this) pre Hormuz A) The oil surplus is modest relative to the surplus in Asia. Chinese state banks and offshore deposits of Chinese exporters are...
Rising Diesel Prices Threaten New Inflationary Spiral
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
Drone Strikes Threaten Russian Oil, Global Market Stability
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Global Oil Shockwave Across Time
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Oil Shortage Anywhere Hits All Nations Equally
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
World Still Faces 6M‑Barrel Daily Oil Shortfall
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
Policy Interventions Boost Export Growth in Vehicles, Batteries
Interesting "Consistent with these channels, Figure 3 shows that sectors with more policy interventions experienced faster export growth over the 2017 to 2024 period. The relationship is especially pronounced in motor vehicles and battery-related products" 1/
Trump Claims Productive Talks, Iran Denies; Market Rally Fades
Trump said US-Iran talks were "productive" and markets rallied over 1% on Monday. Iran's parliament speaker then responded: "No negotiations have been held with the US." Today the rally is already fading. The trend is down we’re making lower lows.
Treasury Declares U.S. Insolvent, Media Overlooks Crisis
Do what you do best. The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it https://t.co/8cCbpiK9a8
Russia's Oil Profits Surge; Carmakers Forced to Source Russian Aluminum
Russia is earning the most from its oil exports since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. https://t.co/71t01Q9mI9 Meanwhile some carmakers are considering buying aluminum from Russia. “We don’t really want to take supplies from Russia but we have no choice” https://t.co/fzAXIO4N0x
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
Markets Ignore Trump, Await Iran Signal
Trump is trying HARD But little to no reaction in the markets. It's clear , it doesn't matter if it's Oil , yields , Gold , Silver or Indices ; Everyone is looking for a signal directly from Iran. They are not trusting...
Iran Conflict Could Shut Strait, Disrupt Global Supply Chains
Planning for two-three weeks more of Iran war. What does Iran do? Are we teaching a tipping point of how long the Strait will be closed or have few ships transiting? Then what? Maritime? Supply chains. Global economy?
Dollar Rally Stalls at 100, Bulls at Crossroads
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Rally Fails at 100 – Bulls Face Decision Point https://t.co/0qMDRVx9to $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/fcyIgceNQF
EM Rally and Strong Dollar: Unsustainable, Breaks Quickly
EM rallying while the dollar firms is a tough combo to sustain. If it breaks, it breaks fast. Where does the pressure show up first when this snaps? em
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage Ensures Persistent Economic Power
“Iran holds a lot of cards with the Strait Of Hormuz.” That’s the quote to remember. Geography can be economic power, and “that vulnerability remains pretty much forever.” https://t.co/OoCOYi8LMc
Understanding Persistent Foreign Private Demand for U.S. Treasuries
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
Service Input Costs Hit May High; Manufacturers at Seven‑month Peak
"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO
White House Misapplies Oil Price in Iran Conflict
The White House Is Using the Wrong Oil Price for the Iran War. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/DQwqJc87ve
DXY Volatility Hits 9‑Month High, Range Contracts
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
Official Iran Inflation Rate Underestimates True 67%
Iran's the Statistical Center of Iran reports that Iran's yearly inflation was 47.5%/yr. WRONG. Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at 67%/yr. I am the only accurate source of inflation measurements for Iran. https://t.co/mSpK5W3YvR
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Freight Data Reveals Unprecedented Manufacturing Surge Since COVID
The freight data doesn't lie... It has been signaling incredibly strong manufacturing conditions for months. I am seeing some of the strongest freight volume charts tied to industrial activity I've seen since COVID. https://t.co/jJXPO8D1OQ
2‑Year Treasury Auction Weakest Since May 2024
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Iran's Transit Fee Hikes Oil, LNG, and Shipping Prices
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
New Book Offers Fresh Insight on Inflation Expectations
Perfect timing for a new book on inflation expectations. https://t.co/CpPzlHzxxf by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko https://t.co/Cy5qOH9CED
Current Crisis Lies at Geopolitics‑Economic Collapse Intersection
I am an economist, not a political commentator. But what is happening right now sits at the exact intersection of geopolitics and economic collapse that I have spent my career studying.
Dollar Reserves Stalled This Decade After Prior Surge
The thing is -- There has been NO dollar reserve accumulation in aggregate over the last ten years. And there was a ton of dollar reserve accumulation during the preceding 10ys (way more than needed for precautionary purposes) https://t.co/GGry0kCOk2
Japanese Automakers Turn to Russian Aluminum Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Japanese carmakers are looking to BUY ALUMINUM from RUSSIA. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR. https://t.co/JIiV9xOkFp