Iran's Economy Was Not Collapsing Before US‑Israeli Attack
One of the many lies about Iran that has been generated in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals is that, before the current US-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran's economy was in a state of collapse. NOT TRUE. JUST TAKE A GLANCE AT THE ACCOMPANYING CHART. https://t.co/Gx0CBRBG2C
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Dollarization Needed
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Iran’s Fragmented Leadership Clouds US Negotiation Prospects
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
Strait of Hormuz: Tiny Passage, Massive Oil Impact
I’m wondering if the news media can muster up an article or report about the Strait of Hormuz, how big it is at its narrowest point and why it’s such a critically strategic waterway to oil trade…. I haven’t heard...
Oil Market Reset: Billion-Barrel Loss Raises Prices Permanently
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
Floating Storage Delays Iranian Oil Sales, Relief Unlikely.
Despite some accounts on this app implying that all oil that Iran has shipped is already sold…that is not the case. Some oil is shipped and is floating storage…to then be sold later. This does not mean the USTs...
Iran War Triggers Global Inflation and Supply Chain Strain
Goldman Sachs: Brace for worldwide inflation surge. The supply shortages created with the Iran war. What will that do to demand, China & other exports, inventory, supply chains, and logistics? Especially the transportation modes.
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Post‑CNY Container Surge Set to Strain US Trucking
Ocean container imports are just starting to roll in from CNY. This index tracks container at the point of bookings, which take about 3 weeks from bookings date to hit US ports. It is updated daily. In coming weeks, we will...
Oil Shocks Fail to Stubbornly Raise Inflation Expectations
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
Commodity Price Surge to Add 0.35pp Core PCE by 2026Q
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Tariffs Inflate Costs, Threaten Jobs; Need Pro‑Growth Policies
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
Ceasefire Won’t Resolve Underlying Middle East Crisis
“Ending the War Doesn’t End the Crisis”: Middle East Ceasefire Risks | A... https://t.co/bDlWKuJTVz via @YouTube
U.S. Gains Most From Hormuz Crisis, Timing Crucial
No matter how you slice it, the United States stands to gain the most from the Hormuz crisis—but keep the timeframes separate, or the picture gets muddled fast. 👇👇👇
Dollar Reserve Growth Didn't Fund US Deficit
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Middle Eastern LNG Delayed to June, Oil Hoarding Risks Rise
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
BoE's MPC Scenario Guidance Will Become a Chaotic Puzzle
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
New 2026 Rate Outlook Recalibrated From Hormuz to DC
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
U.S. Relies on Canadian Manufacturing Amid NAFTA Talks
Leaving Canada high and dry could backfire, as the U.S. benefits greatly from Canadian manufacturing. We'll see how the strategy changes throughout these NAFTA negotiations. #NAFTA #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/G5bk8aSGAU
Europe and China Lead Global Imbalance Reassessment
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
Urea Shortage Threatens 87% of U.S. Corn Output
To give a scale of the sense of fertilizer disruption: The 13.5 Million tons of Urea behind Strait of Hormuz is 1/4th of global exports. This is the equivalent of 87% of U.S. corn production. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc https://t.co/a0azQFg63V
Poll: Predicting TradePolicy3.0's Future at WTO MC14
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? Not really sure what I mean? Click here first: https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb
A Simple Binary Framework for Choosing Trusted Experts
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
Iran Conflict Could Ripple Into CUSMA Review
What impacts might the war in Iran have on the CUSMA review? #canada🇨🇦 #trade #canada #tariffs #energy
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Iran's Control of Hormuz Threatens Global Trade
The Straits of Hormuz and maritime generally is THE story of the war with Iran. Iran cannot be left in charge of the Straits and choke the world. I recorded a special episode of Invested with @AmiDaniel1, founder & CEO...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Iran Conflict, Expect Sharp Correction
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Small Rise in Private Credit Defaults Cuts GDP 0.1%
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Short‑Term Inflation Peaks as Oil Prices Stall
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
VIX and Oil Dip, but Volatility Remains High
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
PMI Slump Signals Looming Stagflation Despite High Inflation
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Sachs: Iran Denies Talks, Trump’s Claim Questionable
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on Pres. Trump’s claim that the US is engaged in negotiations with Iran: “The Iranians have been saying very clearly that there are no negotiations... I think it raises questions about the President.” https://t.co/aM61cohaAc
Strong Dollar, High Oil Trigger Emerging Market Crisis
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
Interest Rate Hikes Pose Bigger Threat Than Oil Prices
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
1990 Fed Warned of Dollar Risk After Kuwait Invasion
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
Energy Crisis, AI Trade Shift, Rate‑Cut Uncertainty Discussed
The latest RiskReversal Podcast is out now with @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg🎙️ 🛢️ Is an Energy Crisis REALLY Priced In? 🤖 The End of the AI Trade As We Know It 🏦 Central Banks In Rate Cut Purgatory YouTube: https://t.co/qZocsifWUV Apple: https://t.co/8JgV8fbnuh Spotify: https://t.co/0G4Q2iLDO2
Markets Accept Persistent Middle East Conflict If Hormuz Flows
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
US‑China Trade War Threatens 2025 Economy; Cooperation Needed
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
Trump's Iran Claim Masks Indirect Talks via Allies
the devil is in the details. It's important for the Iranian regime's legitimacy & public face not to engage in diplomacy with the US. So Trump may say "we spoke with the Iranians" what actually happened in that Trumps ppl...
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Unclear US War Goals Fuel Market Volatility
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
Euro Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since Oct 2023
Euro Area consumer confidence plunged by 4 points from a month earlier to -16.3 in March 2026, the lowest since October 2023 @teconomics https://t.co/pdxVAqEF0L
Gulf Shut‑ins Could Cut 200 M Barrels in First Month
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
Trump’s Self‑negotiation Lost; China Won 2025 Standoff
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
Strait Closure Triggers Universal Refined‑petroleum Supply Shock
I spoke with @GaryBohm5 'Metals and Miners' about the closure of the Strait: "It will affect everything that's produced by refined petroleum: the chemical and plastics industry, fertilizer. This supply shock will ripple through everything. There's nothing that isn't touched." https://t.co/SPZ9A1UMhy