Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
One‑off Shocks Keep Inflation Above 2% Target
The problem with dismissing all the shocks as "one-time things" is that they all have the same directional impact on inflation and underlying inflation was already running around 3%, which means that in practice you will never hit a 2%...
Wage Growth Slows, Services Inflation Remains Stubborn
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
Powell to Stay on Board Until Investigation Concludes
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Powell Stumped by Rising Services Inflation Amid Soft Job Market
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Powell Admits Uncertainty on Oil Shock’s Economic Impact
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Three Weeks of Strait Closure Sparks Ongoing Chaos
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
Powell Shifts From Labor Market Weakness to Downside Risk
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
Fed Holds Rates, Warns No Cut Without Inflation Progress
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Fed Should Treat Inflation Shocks Like Oil Companies
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
Fed Holds Steady, Awaits Middle East Clarity
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
Tariff‑induced Inflation Likely Not Just a Temporary Shock
There's not really any reason why we should think that tariff driven inflation shocks need to be seen to be proven they are temporary.
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
Services Inflation Accelerates Across Broad Range of Categories
Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories
Powell: Oil Price Spike Lifts Short‑term Inflation Expectations
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Powell Skips Service‑sector Disinflation Comment From January
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
Fed Says Supply Shock Shouldn't Trigger Rate Hikes
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
Trump’s Economic Metrics Plummet, TSLombard Shows
According to TSLombard, Trump’s numbers are horrible on just about everything, but on the economy it is looking really bad. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/Ro8tuPfMZk
Fed's Projections Remain Low, Ignoring CPI and P
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Fed Sees Optimism: Growth up, Jobs Down, Inflation Easing
Fed SEP shows a lot of optimism with GDP growth picking up, the unemployment rate coming down and inflation easing.
Core PCE Above Target, Fed Still Plans Rate Cut
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
Fed Sees Modest Iran‑driven Inflation, Limited Cuts Ahead
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Producer Prices Surge, Undermining Fed’s Rate‑Cut Gains
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Powell’s Inflation Focus May Push Oil Lower, Buy Near $88
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
Stagflation Traps Fed, Gold Becomes Safe Haven
We are in a stagflation environment and we are getting more deep into it. The FED is trapped already. If they hold for too long or consider hiking to control inflation —> they will make the already weak labor market even more...
US Indifference Threatens Europe’s Strait Reopening
What if the United States doesn’t care about reopening the strait for Europe? My latest gCaptain Op-Ed 👇
10% Oil Supply Cut Could Spike Prices $150
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
Israel's Strike Risks Iran Retaliation, Global Energy Fallout
Israel's reckless escalation in attacking Iran's South Pars gas facilities - hitting onshore processing facilities for Phases 3-6, gives Iran plausible excuse (if it needed it) to hit back against regional energy facilities Neutrals & world energy consumers will suffer https://t.co/Kx7MytxmEn
Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
Trump Likely to Block Russia's Oil Shipments to Cuba
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
SquirrelMacro Urges Trimming Stocks Amid Weak IPOs, Credit Cracks
OUT NOW - @SquirrelMacro loves owning stocks but keeps seeing reasons to lighten his bag, from: - mega IPO issuance of money-losing companies - cracks in software & private credit - U.S. consumer weakening Apple https://t.co/qZiDfSFK94 Spotify https://t.co/zqeGlNjrbb https://t.co/53hmkQuqqX
War Over Ships and Tariffs, Not Hormuz Opening
Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share...
Hormuz Disruption Forces IEA to Release 400M Barrels
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
2026's Oil Shock Rivals 1973‑79 Long‑run Impacts
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
Feb PCE Firm Yet Slightly Weaker Than Expected
Even though PPI in February printed high, the components that filter into PCE (including downward revisions for December) came in a bit lower than the sharp-pencils anticipated. February PCE is still expected to be firm, but a touch less so...
Middle East Tensions Push Brent Crude Past $110
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
Iran Conflict May Spark 10‑15% Market Correction
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
Understanding Oil Shock Shift: From Inflation to Demand Destruction
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
Russian Aide Brands US Iran War a Global Economic Tragedy
In some of Russia's harshest criticism of the US war in Iran, which Putin has tried not to say much on, top aide Nikolai Patrushev calls it a "tragedy" that will "set global trade and economics back years" and "has...
Taiwan Imports Surpass China, Undermining Trump’s Bilateral Focus
The Trump Administration makes way too much of the bilateral balance with China -- Monthly imports from Taiwan alone topped imports from China in the last quarter of data 1/2 https://t.co/IOKB3Ii1lH
Fed Should Stabilize Nominal Income Growth Amid Supply Shocks
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
China Covertly Sustains Iran with Oil and Rockets
How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive—From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support @austinramzy @RoryWSJ https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO