Europe Swapped Russian Gas for LNG, Still Vulnerable
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand - not switching suppliers. https://t.co/n8CWDRJYQ4
FOMC Cheat Code: Trade, Spot Hawk/Dove, Decode Powell
FOMC CHEAT CODE. Covering : - How to trade FOMC - How to spot a hawk or dove in FOMC - How to breakdown Powell's words in FOMC - How to know if FOMC is bullish or bearish See the comments to watch.
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Export Bans Threaten Philippines' Fuel and Food Security
Products matter as we don’t consume crude but the by products. The Philippines is vulnerable to export bans of not just diesel and gas but also eventually food should the conflict endures.
75% of World Bleeds $1
One has to be out of their mind to buy a petrol car - or bus, or scooter, or heater - today if they're even remotely cognizant of the reality around them ➡️New @EmberClimate report shows 75% of the world is...
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
Rosatom Shifts Hafnium Exports From Europe to Asia
MOSCOW, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom, the country's sole producer of hafnium used in high-tech industries, said on Tuesday it had redirected its supplies of the metal from European to Asian markets.
China’s Strong Start Hides Uneven Growth Amid External Risks
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
Economic Warfare Shifts Pain: $150 vs $100
FT says the economy is worse off because of economic warfare @TheMichaelEvery says that misses the point It’s not about prices on screens anymore. It’s about who pays $150 and who pays $100. Same shock. Different pain. That’s the strategy. https://t.co/sGABAdh3EV #Oil #Geopolitics #Statecraft #Energy
Middle East Conflict Fuels South African Petrol Shortage Fears
South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
China's Central Asian Influence Extends Beyond Extractive Industries
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
FOMC Chaos: 5‑Year Inflation‑Killing Plan Revealed
The FOMC is a mess. I have been writing about the original sin, the false flag of 2019, and a workable plan to kill inflation for 5 years. Here is Sundays client only DSR. I'm making it...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Seventh Oil Shock Arrives, Yet Recession Uncertain
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
Urgent: US Multinationals' Massive Tax Avoidance Demands Attention
Trying to get the folks who matter to care about industrial scale tax avoidance by US multinationals ...
Iran Hints at Post‑War Strait of Hormuz Deal
Iranian FM Araghchi is talking of a new "post-war arrangement" for the Strait of Hormuz. Would be interesting to see what other details emerge. Right now, the markets are more focused on what kind of "war arrangement" might fall into place, if...
Trump Announces Xi Summit in Five to Six Weeks
Trump Says Meeting With Xi Taking Place in Five to Six Weeks—President Trump said his planned summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place in about five or six weeks. @KThomasDC https://t.co/8gdFGagYZb
Geopolitical Risk Spikes to 21st‑century Worst Levels
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Fed Rate Call Sets Direction for Stocks and Dollar
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
US Blocks Cuban Oil Shipments, Keeps Rubio in Dark
No one told Rubio that the United States is blocking oil shipments to Cuba. Trump wants to keep in the dark on this.
Oil Risks Spark Inflation, Reviving Short‑Gold, Long‑Bitcoin Play
War, oil, and crypto collide with Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins 🛢️ Why elevated oil risks flipping markets into an inflationary regime 📉 Deleveraging everywhere ₿ "Short gold, long Bitcoin" trade is back on the desk 🎲 Prediction markets...
Oil at $150/Barrel Could Push Inflation to 6% Q2
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
Post‑Fed, Iran War’s Hidden Employment and Income Risks Emerge
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
Allies' Oil Shortage Fuels US Strait Standoff
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Next Month
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Crude Oil's Market Ripple Effects Discussed on Podcast
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
Market Predicts Near‑Certain No Rate Cut at FOMC
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
Russian Shadow Fleet Set to Vanish, Shipping Shortage Looms
There's a good chance that the entire Russian shadow fleet could be dismantled within months. Beyond the impacts on Russian, Iranian, and other oil supplies, global shipping could be shifting towards a shortage as the vessels are retired. #crude #crudeoil #geopolitics...
Trump Admin to Loosen Venezuela Oil Sanctions Amid Price Surge
SCOOP: The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on #Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production as the #Iran war sends prices surging, sources tell me @GaripPatricia @peterbmillard @zerpius. https://t.co/aefUIb9tHJ
Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting: Most Critical Decision Yet
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Australia Raises Rates Again, 25 Bps to 4.10%
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
Brazil Sends Delegation to China Over Soybean Sanitary Dispute
🇧🇷🇨🇳 Brazilian officials will head to China next week to discuss the ongoing sanitary issues with soybean exports. Brazil's minister said they have stepped up inspection efforts, yet he also said there has been no change in protocol. https://t.co/RrTP0clcZT
Only Two of Three Oil, Fed, Inflation Scenarios Can Occur
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
US May Abandon Hormuz, Destroy Iran’s Oil Infrastructure
Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
Warflation: Unnamed Economic Threat Looms Ahead
The word warflation does not appear in any economics textbook. But it is the most accurate word for what is coming.
Airlines Face $400M March Fuel Surge, Higher Fares
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Closing Hormuz Guarantees Outcome; Only Duration Matters
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Higher Oil Prices Trigger Demand Collapse, Recession, Fed Cuts
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil Hitting $125 Could Reshape Global Economy
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
Stocks Held Until Oil Surge Triggered 2022 Inflation Sell‑off
The equity market was "resilient" at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as well...it took five weeks of high oil prices before stocks started to capitulate to inflation pressures in 2022. https://t.co/CXaKnBXbHv
Reliable Iran War Sources Still Hold Up After Two Weeks
My list of accounts to follow for quality information about the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz holds up two weeks later… 👇👇
Expect Tomorrow's EZ Inflation Forecasts to Surprise Markets
Have sense that the floodgates will open on EZ inflation forecasts tomorrow. We have been updating daily since last week with the final HICPs from the individual countries, and I still think we're behind the curve ahead of the numbers...
China Adopts US‑style Economic Coercion as America Wanes
China learned economic coercion from the best, as I wrote with Adam Szubin in this coauthored 2023 essay in @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/fsxpb7Zusb
Pakistan Faces Highest Energy Risk if Hormuz Closes
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Greece, Eurogroup Discuss Energy Shock’s Economic Impact
Very good meeting with Greece's Minister of Economy & Finance Kyriakos @Pierrakakis, the President of the Eurogroup, at IEA HQ in Paris We discussed recent developments in energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the potential economic implications...
German Investor Confidence Crashes Amid Iran War
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
Markets Ignore FOMC; Dot Plot and Language Drive Moves
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
LA Rebounds as Post‑CNY Port Volumes Surge
LA is coming back strong from weak conditions earlier this year. As port volumes return from Chinese New Year, we could see a resurgence of momentum.
China‑US Summit Delayed, Soy Market Hopes Stall
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...