Fed Meeting’s Dot Plot Will Steer Markets This Summer
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set direction for every asset class through summer.
New Lens on Marginal Consumer Spending Hits Spot‑On
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
Fed's Inflation View to Steer Near‑term Rate Path
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Live: Economic Fallout of Middle East Conflict
Coming up in 1 hour LIVE @TheNationalNews Discussion of economic impact of Mideast warfare With @ManusCranny https://t.co/1QprixfNpq
Refinancing Wall: An Ever-Present Market Reality
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil, China Still Receives It
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
Rising Tanker Traffic Could Shrink Brent's War‑driven Risk Premium
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
Traders Bet Fed Dovish; Stocks Rise, Dollar Falls
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Private Credit Defaults Surge to 9.2%, Outpacing 2008
Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch. When exits close, panic starts. https://t.co/PTz3djlLMl
Trump’s Missteps Reveal Diplomacy’s Critical Role
Trumps learns the hard way the importance of diplomacy and soft power… GeopoliticalGuy | Substack https://bit.ly/4rAmIyw #Geopolitics #Iran #NATO #Hormuz #Trump
EU's Kallas Rejects Belgium's Push to Normalize Moscow Ties
BRUSSELS, March 17 (Reuters) - European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on Tuesday against a call by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to normalise relations with Moscow and regain access to cheap Russian energy.
Germany Declines Hormuz Escort; High Oil Prices Reflect Policy
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Global LNG Market Visualized in New Interactive Map
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Fed Hikes Driven by Macro Policy, Not Oil Spikes
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
China’s Fuel Ban Strains Regional Supply, Sparks Contract Disputes
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Trump Pivots to Dealmaking, Seeks Delayed US‑China Summit
Trump Shifts U.S.-China Strategy on Trade to Dealmaking—Plus, President Trump has asked Beijing to delay his summit with Xi and some have signaled renewed openness to bilateral investment @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
Empires Crumble when Power Replaces Ideology
“When a hegemon abandons the legitimating ideas that built its empire and operates on naked power alone, it has already begun to fall.” @Noneotherthanwe
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Fed Shouldn't React to Oil Supply Shocks
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
Summit Delay Minor; IEEPA Tariff Relief Drives Trade Gains
“Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on...
Sweden Seizes First Shadow Fleet Vessel, Signaling Global Crackdown
Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy
Iran's VIP Checkpoint Makes Hormuz Transit Politically Controlled
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
RBA Hike Ahead,
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
Geopolitics and Inflation Now Top Tail Risks
"...geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Record US Private Credit Defaults Drive Gold, Silver Rally
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
War’s End Won’t Instantly Revive Commodity Output
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
Rising Real Rates Threaten Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal
Have developed world interest rates hit their nadir - courtesy of energy prices? Perhaps one point of key implication is the possible pivot is the gold. Already eschewing its safe haven roots, a turn higher in real rates will be...
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
New Analysis Finally Explains China’s Economy‑stock Market Split
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
AI Turns Into Geopolitical Infrastructure, Shaping Global Alliances
AI is quickly becoming geopolitical infrastructure. An Nvidia-backed startup plans to spend billions on a data center in South Korea, as the U.S. increasingly uses AI chips and models to strengthen alliances and counter China. The AI race is no longer just...
RBA Hike Hints at Tighter Path for Single‑mandate Banks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
RBA Raises Rates to 4.1% as BOJ Stalls
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
RBA Leads Rate Hikes, Others Remain Silent
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Chip Supply Chain
Iran war chokepoints begin to cast doubt on global chip supply https://t.co/oHuurB7rl9 via @debbywuintaipei @ckyrious https://t.co/EFKkB6ppV0
Reducing Hormuz Shipping Threat Demands Resources, Political Resolve
I write for the @Telegraph on the military challenges in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. BLUF: the threat to shipping can be reduced but eliminating it is very resource intensive and can only be made permanent through politics: https://t.co/N9pN5Z9XmD
US Unveils Section 301 Trade Action Against 16 Nations
The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp
Fuel Price Hikes Act as Hidden Interest Rate Rise
Rising cost of fuel already an interest‑rate rise on households and businesses Higher Aus interest rates don’t fix inflation from rising oil prices, nor tax oil companies gaining a windfall. Who in Aus pays the price? Those who can least afford it https://t.co/6qbQujyqgg
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
Markets Shrug as China Disruptions Echo 2020
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
Iranian-Linked Tankers Still Dominate Hormuz Despite Attacks
India- and Pakistan-owned ships transit Strait of Hormuz ▶️Iranian-linked tonnage still dominates Hormuz transits ▶️Attacks on shipping are succeeding in halting crossings ▶️Eastbound transits prevail westbound journeys ▶️US ‘fine’ with Iranian tankers sailing through Hormuz to ‘supply’ the rest of the...
China-Linked Hormuz Traffic Plummets, VLCCs Shift to Red Sea
China-linked Hormuz transits retreat to shipping’s opaque fringes ▶️China-linked traffic through Hormuz has slowed sharply after recent attacks, with transits largely confined to an opaque bulker and one sanctioned VLCC ▶️Mainstream Chinese state-owned tanker fleets continue to stay out, citing safety, insurance...
Supply Shocks Could Trigger Crises Bigger Than COVID
If a meaningful fraction of the analyses I’m seeing on major supply disruptions to global energy, food and pharmaceutical inputs is real, the humanitarian crises and government responses that are about to unfold will make COVID mayhem feel quaint.
S&P 500 Fell
The S&P 500 dropped only 5% during a Middle East war that shut down oil transit routes. A 10-15% correction was expected. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7hi7kivw1h
Trade FOMC: Align Timing, Levels, and Liquidity
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Drone Strike Threatens Fertilizer Supply, Endangering Global Harvest
Drone strikes fuel truck at Dubai airport. What is happening is more than the Strait of Hormuz and oil. Supply and supply chains. A key product not moving is fertilizer as planting season is arriving. The impact on crop output...
Macro Monday Market Update with CryptoLandy
Market Update with Landy: Macro Monday 03/16/2026 Brought to you by @davidgokhshtein @gokhshtein and hosted by @CryptoLandy. https://t.co/hUnE1k6tKY
3,200 Ships Stuck West of Hormuz, Emergency Meeting Called
UN Shipping Agency Says 3,200 Ships Trapped West of Hormuz as Emergency Council Meeting Called https://t.co/JURA89iBEy