Allies Resist Trump's Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv
Weak Currency and Deregulation Amplify Philippines' Oil Price Pain
Here’s why high oil prices are hitting places like the Philippines a lot harder than others (net energy importer, deregulated, very weak currency, relatively low income) 🔉on https://t.co/qMgihHYgGD
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Trump Claims U.S. Requested Delay of Xi Summit
Trump Says U.S. Has Asked to Delay Summit With China’s Xi—President Trump said the U.S. had asked to delay a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that had been expected to begin later this month in Beijing. @KThomasDC https://t.co/RIlqe39hUE
Iran’s Victory Could Collapse Petrodollar, End US Era
If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991)...
Rising Income, Oil, Deficits Make Rate Cuts Tough
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
Drones Strike Majnoon Field, Iraq Faces Escalating Threat
Lots of attention on the GCC - but as drones hit the Majnoon field, what does the war mean for Iraq? A very dangerous time ahead https://t.co/nO2Yr3HQde @ColumbiaUEnergy
AIS‑active Ships Signal Genuine Reopening Underway
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
Trump’s Iran Gambit Ignites a Raging, Unintended Inferno
My view of Trump's grasp of reality: "Trump foolishly thought he was going to easily put out a little brush fire in Iran. Instead, he poked a stick into a hornet's nest. It's fueled a raging inferno that's generating massive collateral...
Amanpour Interview: Iran, Oil
The link to this afternoon’s conversation with Christiane Amanpour. Thanks so much, Christiane, for having me on your show. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/tv/video/amanpour-el-erian-trump-iran-hormuz-economy #economy @cnn #middleeastwar #oil #inflation #growth @pbs @camanpour
Navarro's Iran “Terror Premium” Claim Sparks Expert Backlash
Energi Media Expert Incurs Wrath of White House Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro claims Iran created a "terror premium" of $5-$15/b for decades. Nonsense, said Ed Hirs, it doesn't exist. Then the sparks flew. #trumptariffchaos #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/Fn3qWrIpsOI
Germany Declares Hormuz Conflict Not Its War
The Chancellor of Germany has responded to President Trump’s request for help in opening the Strait of Hormuz… In simple English he said: “That war is not our war and we won’t be involved.” Germany is the LARGEST & RICHEST...
Global Economic Uncertainty Now Nearly Double Pandemic Levels
Global economic uncertainty is nearly twice as high now as it was during the pandemic.
US‑China Trade Board Unprecedented; Washington Must Prepare
A new US-China “Board of Trade”? The world has never before seen an attempt to manage trade at this scale. If the US government wants to do this seriously, it really has to do its homework. by @AnaSwanson https://t.co/ooAO5hs8Jv
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
Cuba Opens Doors for Diaspora Investment to Boost Economy
#Cuba is moving to allow more investment from Cubans living abroad as part of a larger effort to bolster the state-dominated economy amid increased pressure from the US. https://t.co/uhnTdxoWpo
War‑driven Inflation Fuels Liquidity‑to‑solvency Crises
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
Iran's First Direct Strike on Oil/Gas Field
I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks). (Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely...
Jobs Stagnant Since Sep 2024, Business Apps Surge
No New Jobs have been created since September 2024 but new business applications have been surging
OPEC+ Shutdown Nears 8.5 MMbpd Amid Iran Conflict
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
US and Global Tax Reforms Boost Irish Corporate Tax Revenue
On the eve of St. Paddy's day I raise a glass to my Irish friends -- offer a toast their international tax wizardry. Every international tax initiative, and every US tax reform, somehow ends up increasing the Irish corporate tax...
Iran Controls Key Chokepoint, US Planners Overlooked It
It is clear that Iran is in control of one of the world's greatest choke points. Apparently, the US military planners failed to see what is CLEAR AS A NOSE ON YOUR FACE. https://t.co/mGgjrf1ZGW
Seizing Kharg Island Would Checkmate Iran’s Oil Revenue
Taking Kharg Island (variety of ways) "kind of checkmate" - General (ret) Jack Keane, Chairman @TheStudyofWar , on @FoxNews "The Straits of Hormuz eventually will be a problem that will be solved, but not immediately. Kharg Island; Kharg Island,...
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
EU Savings Union Could Launch This Year, Says Harris
EU savings union can be ready this year, Ireland’s Harris says https://t.co/ncveXVZHvW via @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/9gb3pbnbBC
Rare Unsanctioned Russian LNG Heads to Southeast Asia
This is a rare Russian LNG shipment going through the Red Sea to Southeast Asia. Why is it rare? Because neither the LNG nor the carrier is sanctioned, and most likely it is not going to China. All previous...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
LNG Shutdown Threatens 1.8 B in Three Poorest Nations
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...
Fed Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged at Upcoming Meeting
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
US Growth Slows to Third‑Slowest in 14 Years
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
Rate Cuts and Easing Inflation Mask Everyday Cost Pressures
We've had six cuts to interest rates in a row since the general election, and the markets expect inflation to be back on track this year, but the cost of living at home and the unrest abroad means that it...
Capital Gains Outpace Labor, Concentrating Wealth and Power
Take a look at these two charts together. One is income concentration (Top 10% share of consumption v Bottom 80%), the other is equity market concentration (S&P 500 Growth vs Value weight). In the last 15 years, surplus flowed to capital,...
War Costs Americans at Pump and Grocery
Pres. Trump and PM Netanyahu's war is TAXING Americans at the pump and at the grocery store. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/l1tQlYx8aS
War’s End Won’t End Oil Crisis, LNG Recovery Lags
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. We have countries that literally shut down production because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For [liquified natural gas] in particular, it takes a very...
Trump’s $50 Oil Goal Risks Global Recession
President Trump will get his $50 oil price wish before the elections— but only after triggering a global recession. Or: End the war this week and keep flooding the market with SPR releases in the coming months.
U.S. Soybean Exports Beat Forecast, 57% to China
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections land near the top of trade expectations and soybeans surpass them. 57% of the week's bean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/ttZsn3agHO
DXY Bears Inside Day, Mirrors VIX Retreat
The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for a bearish 'inside day' from a technical analysis perspective. Happens to align to the $VIX retreat - though the 10-day correlation is waning. Is the Dollar more aligned as a safe haven,...
Tariffs and Midterms Threaten President's Political Capital
Tariffs and elections are historically a toxic mix for US presidents. Are we about to see history repeat itself in this year's midterms? My latest for @BW & @business: https://t.co/46jYYRwocA
First Non‑Iranian Tanker Sails Hormuz Amid Quiet Approvals
Did Iran just negotiate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz? The Aframax tanker KARACHI just became the first non-Iranian cargo ship to transit the strait with AIS on since attacks on shipping escalated—raising questions about whether certain vessels are...
US Clears Iranian Tankers Through Hormuz as Oil Prices Spike
U.S. Allows Iranian Tankers to Transit Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge and Select Ships Begin Crossing Strait https://t.co/7Cu9sdFEOi
Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Supply Chains
Strait of Hormuz. Global supply chain risk. Across product and market sectors. Oil. Fertilizer. Sulfur. Aluminum. Natural gas. From logistics to agriculture. And more. Chaos. https://t.co/bI5EP6euSD
Input Cost Surge Won’t Halt Cycle Until 2027
I get why people fear that the input cost spike that we have seen over the past month will end the business cycle, but it is probably more of a 2027 story.. There is a whole "time-line" that we need...
Biden Transforms US Asian Alliances Into Latticework
Nice graphic illustrating the Biden-era shift in the US alliance system in Asia from hub and spokes to latticework. One thought was that it might be “Trump-proof”. This and more on the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/5rn87BajVq
Hormuz: Vital Energy Artery Threatened by Geopolitical Tension
The Strait Of Hormuz: Energy Lifeline Or Global Time Bomb? | 4K Documentary https://t.co/t6N6hRSPrD via @YouTube
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......