Kazakhstan Central Bank to Deploy $350M Into Crypto‑Linked Funds
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
Euro‑area Growth Revised Down From Year‑end Estimate
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
US Temporarily Relaxes Russian Oil Sanctions for India
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
Korea's Rare Mix: Booming Stocks, Huge Surplus, Weak Won
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
US Pushes Formal Venezuelan Critical Minerals Value Chain
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
Swedish Central Bank Urges Cash Hoarding Amid Payment Risks
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Low Volatility Seeds Future Turbulence; Powell‑Trained Models Miss Warsh
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
China Lithium Prices Plunge Amid Weak EV Demand, War Uncertainty
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
US Blocks India’s Currency Advantage, Mirrors China Policy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
78% Fear Inflation, Making Affordability Crisis Trump’s Weakness
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
US Grants India Waiver for Russian Oil Loaded by March 5
There is a caveat to the Russia oil waiver for India — “loaded on vessels as of March 5”. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Russia-related General License 133, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale...
Dollar Index May Hit Record as Other Currencies Collapse
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
US Grants India 30‑Day Waiver for Stranded Russian Oil
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
Mortgage Rates Set for Volatile Swings Amid Global Uncertainty
My biggest takeaway right now regarding mortgage rates is to expect heightened volatility. They will likely bounce around a lot more than normal thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The good news is 30-year fixed rates remain near ~3-year...
Shipping Rates Surge, Yet Hormuz Crisis Looms
Container Shipping Rates Rise as Asian Factories Reopen—But Hormuz Crisis Threatens New Shock. Is it time to stop talking about rates? Instead cite the metrics for container lines and for supply chains? Rethink a new reality of increasing disruption? ...
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Median-Income Americans Can Afford Only Modest Homes
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
Three Paths for a New Fed‑Treasury Accord
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Weak Job Market Affects All Young Workers, Not Just Grads
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
Oil Spike Highlights Renewables' Growing Competitive Edge
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 28%, Ranks 6th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
No Ships in Hormuz Strait: Explained Why
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
Coal Demand Splits; Warrior Met Poised for Rebound
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
War's Ripple: Beyond Russia-Ukraine, Global Complexity Unfolds
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Erdoğan Faces US‑backed Kurdish Arms Amid PKK Talks
While the CIA arms Iranian Kurds in Iraq, Turkey is in the middle of disarmament talks with the PKK. I wonder what Erdoğan thinks about the latest US entanglement with the Kurds? https://t.co/iaq2Xp2XeS
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Political Risk Soars: Trim Govt Comms Supplier Exposure
Macro: political risk rises after $220M DHS ad probe. Key: high-profile Noem campaign, bipartisan scrutiny. Risks: reputational, budget cuts. Trade insight: trim exposure to govt comms suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rigid European Labor Markets Hinder Demand Shock Response
Why are Europe’s rigid labor markets so bad? They turn a flow into a stock, which generates not great reactions to demand shocks. https://t.co/TqgDgtU9nj
Iran War Exposes Fossil Fuel’s Hidden Global Costs
On The Climate Brink, my latest post is on what the war in Iran tells us about the hidden costs of fossil fuels https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-war-in-iran-shows-us-another
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Strait Closure Ripple Effects Threaten Sulphur, Copper, Global Markets
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
War in Iran and Inflation Push Mortgage Rates Near 6%
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
Iran War Sends Global Ripples Through Container Shipping
The impact of the Iran war on container shipping is reaching well beyond the Persian Gulf, creating ripple effects upstream at ports around the world. 1/ 🧵