Yen Rebounds While RMB Gains Accelerate in FX Consolidation
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
Importers Weigh Discount for Guaranteed Immediate Tariff Refunds
If you are an importer, what % discount would you accept to get paid the full amount on your tariff refunds right now with 100% certainty and you keep the money even if there are no refunds.
One‑Third of South Africans Unemployed, Economy Stagnates
In, South Africa, one in three people are OUT OF WORK. No wonder its economy has STAGNATED. https://t.co/8TbCpugNqS
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Inside How Liquidity Providers Power ETFs and Markets
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
Debate Needed: Jane Street's Role in Bitcoin Liquidity
There’s a lot of heated views about the Jane Street Terraform story. Those who say “nothing to see here” and no big market maker conspiracy. And those who think something very untoward has been happening for ages. I think both...
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
UBS Predicts 20% Chinese Stock Rally on Inflation
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
China's Rare Earth Export Curbs Still Limit US Supply
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
Trump's Pressure Pushes Modi to Diversify India’s Trade Partners
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
China’s Role: Minor Export Market, Major Input Supplier, CNY Undervalued
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Japan and Korea Hit Record Highs on Nvidia Rally
Asia stocks rally: Japan & S.Korea hit records as Nvidia lifts chipmakers; China/HK mixed, BOJ inflation data a risk. Trade: buy Korean memory names on pullbacks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Amazon's $50B AI Bet Boosts NVDA Play
Macro: Big-ticket cloud/AI capital flows concentrate. Key: Amazon pledges $15bn now, $35bn tied to IPO/AGI. Risks: valuation/tech execution. Trading insight: Buy NVDA on AI infra demand. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nuanced Take: BoP Deficit Matters,
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
Global Equities Rise as India Volatility Falls
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +53.00 (0.21%) 25,672.50 DowJones +307.77 (+0.63%) 49,482.27 Nasdaq +288.40 (+1.26%) 23,152.08 India Vix -0.6875 (-4.86%) 13.4625 S&P 500 +56.07 (+0.81%) 6,946.14
Trump’s IEA Threat Spurs Canada to Build Own Data
Trump's Bullying of IEA a Wake-up Call for Canada Energy Sec Chris Wright: Stop promoting net-zero or US will pull out of iea. Canada needs data, modelling for trade negotiations, policy. Where will Mark Carney Carney get it? Our own economists. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/DhE1Gfoh-yY
Tariff Hikes Boost Inflation Expectations, Curb Durable Purchases
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Nvidia News Set to Shake Global Markets Amid KOSPI Slump
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
Economy Shifts From K-Shape to Emerging “E” Shape
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Sky‑high Prices Strain Americans, Exposing Trump's Affordability Flaw
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
Decoding Congress's 1975 Balance‑of‑Payments Language
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
Germany Urges China to Let RMB Appreciate, Reversing Stance
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Fiscal Policy Dragged Q4 Growth, Boosts Q1
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
EM Currencies Surge, Yet Turkish Lira Slides Amid High Carry
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
Rial Depreciates as US Threats Loom Over Iran
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
Bostic Warns Fed Independence Faces Real, Uncertain Threat
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
Dollar Slides vs EM, Brazil's Real Hits Two-Year High
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
Iranian Rial Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST CURRENCY. The rial has depreciated by 43% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = IN REAL BIG TROUBLE. https://t.co/FmVN6Cuf8I
Excessive Household Debt Dampens Consumer Spending, BIS Finds
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
South Sudan Lacks Reliable Money Data, Undermining Accountability
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
Iran's Inflation Soars to 82%, World’s Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today I measure Iran’s inflation at a SKY-HIGH 82.0%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/rjjYgxSo4g
Populism's Anti‑competition Myth Fuels Immigration Misunderstanding
There is a core idea underlying a lot of populism: nobody should have to compete anymore. The problem is, reducing competition is a zero (or even negative) sum game. This misunderstanding drives a lot of confusion about high skilled immigration. https://t.co/sYvbZRJAXJ
Europe's Anti‑Russia Stance Fails: Oil Still Bought
Are the RUSSOPHOBES in Europe still buying Russian oil? The answer is YES. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/EGIEz4CjE2
Trump Claims Right to Ignore Law, Destroy Nations
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Trump’s world view: “[Trump] says ‘I will not be constrained by law or by convention or by any of the international institutions’… ‘I have the right to destroy countries.’ ” https://t.co/Bs2ZRsJMLL
Gold Surge Signals Safety; Crypto Remains Risky
Gold and silver pumping tells us money is moving to safety. That’s simply the current appetite of investors. Crypto still trades like is a risk asset. Long-term I’m bullish. Short-term, you need to start respecting where we’re at in the cycle.
Current Stance:
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
China's Gold Reserves Jump 260% Since 2022
Since October 2022, China’s gold reserves have SURGED by 260%. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/ot9Q5fMQ8n
Trump Quiet on $2,000 Tariff Rebate Checks
EVERCORE: “.. Trump has not emphasized the $2,000 ‘tariff rebate’ checks since earlier this year, suggesting that at least for now this has fallen off the agenda ..” 😔 https://t.co/EN0kaph84R
Solar Boom Fueled by Debt, Not True Cost Savings
I don't think the world is ready for the reality that the great solar boom wasn't as cost-efficient as everyone thought. And actually, in a round-about way, was probably predominantly subsidised by growing Western indebtedness, at the cost of middle-class...
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Higher Real Wages Benefit Workers as Consumers
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Tech Exports Drive 5% GDP, 7% Jobs in India
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
OPEC+ Poised for Cautious Supply Hikes Amid Y2K‑style Glut
OPEC+ likely to restart supply hikes The oil glut is looking more like Y2K Still, OPEC+ increases will probably be cautious. https://t.co/XT9I0sGhYp #Oil #OPECPlus #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Shale
Cintrini Resorts to Zandi’s Stats Amid Worsening
Just when you think it can’t get worse we got Cintrini appealing to Zandi “stats”
Factor National Interests, Avoid Becoming Market Victim
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
Fed Moves Needn't Dictate Other Central Banks' Actions
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...