ISM only Matters when Bitcoin Moves Opposite Direction
No one cared about the ISM when it was dropping for years while BTC went up. Now that BTC is going down and the ISM has gone up, it’s suddenly the indicator everyone cares about
PPI Stays Elevated at 2.9% Amid Fed QE Shift
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH
Orbán Deploys Troops, Labels Ukraine Threat to Energy
PM Viktor Orbán has deployed troops & police to protect Hungary’s critical energy infrastructure. Orbán cites an alleged "oil blockade" & "blackmail" from Ukraine. It’s as clear as the nose on your face that Hungary, a member of NATO, views Ukraine as...
U.S. Critical Mineral Imports Surge, Few Nations Dominate
America’s net import reliance for critical minerals in 2025, along with the primary countries supplying them between 2021 and 2024 https://t.co/89QwEHKe16 via @visualcap
Opaque Private Debt Markets Reveal Growing Financial Fragility
Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more...
Global Investors Turning Bearish, Urging “Sell America”
A theme that @myers_nyc is seeing amongst investors globally? "Sell America." "I've never seen sentiment this bearish toward the United States." https://t.co/iJAlPoLTTE
US Ignores China AI Threat to Corporate Profits
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
Global Rotation From US Assets to Rest of World Begins
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
Druzhba Pipeline Remains Vital Amid Disputed Repairs
The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil & 86% of Hungary's oil, remains FRONT & CENTER. Hungarian PM Orban & Slovak PM Fico have both asserted that the pipeline is functional, while Ukraine asserts that the pipeline has not...
Weekly Chartbook Offers 50+ Slides for Forward Guidance
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
Tariff Refunds Spark Unexpected Market Reaction
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
Data‑driven Debate, Not Magical Thinking, Drives Solutions
A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi. https://t.co/wtjQL4ly9p
AI-Driven Recession Threatens Benefits of Lower Mortgage Rates
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
Hot PPI Fails to Dent Fed Cut Expectations
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
Trump Tariffs Drive Canada to Diversify Global Trade Partners
Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Canada is looking for new partners everywhere. Carney has already visited China, departed for India today, and will head next to Australia and Japan. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE US. https://t.co/UHsis6akCV
PBOC Allowing Gradual RMB Appreciation, Not Stopping It
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
AI Job Losses Could Spark Credit and Debt Crisis Soon
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...
Foreign Markets Surge Amid Global Extensions
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: February 27, 2026 - Global Extensions..." Foreign markets remain on fire... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/VFNIukbgod https://t.co/jRyXRjyXsc
Policies Need Time; False Optimism or Doom Is Gaslighting
It is gaslighting to say things are rosy; it is gaslighting to say things are terrible. Some govt policies will take months/years to bear fruit -depending on implementation and follow-through which are far from guaranteed.
Canada’s Q4 GDP Dips as Inventories Plunge
The Canadian economy ended the year on a softer note as a sharp decline in business inventories drove down real gross domestic product by an annualized 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The decline was partially offset by increased household spending,...
IMF’s No‑Bailout Stance Pushes China, Ecuador Back to Markets
Striking that China has taken $2 billion off the table since 2021 while the IMF put $2 billion in ... Talk about not using IMF funds to bailout China back during the pandemic turned out to be just that, talk. You...
Core Wholesale Prices Jump 0.8% in January, Outpacing Forecasts
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
Spanish Analyst Warns Gibraltar Shift Would Harm Spain, Morocco
The Blind Spot's resident Spaniard says Brits shouldn't worry about Gibraltar turning Spanish. Were that the case, it would set off a series of dominoes that could devastate both Spain and Morocco. https://t.co/gFok91QaFp
Low Treasury Yields Revive MMT Enthusiasm Flood
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Strong Current Accounts Can't Stop Taiwan, Korea Currency Weakness
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
Sticky PPI Keeps Rates High, Drives Yield Decline
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
Thin Retail Margins Force Sellers to Pass Tariffs
"Many sellers simply don’t have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. 'At a certain point—because retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin business—if people’s costs go up by 10%, there aren’t...
Fed's Massive Balance Sheet, Not Warsh, Needs Trimming
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
Producer Prices Surge, Profit Margins Hit Record Highs
🔥 My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger has updated the producer price index data released today. The index showed the largest increase in core goods (wx food and energy) prices since early 2022; profit margins soared to their highest on record, with...
AI's Asset Demand Shifts Money From Tech to Commodities
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples...
China's Central Bank Eases Dollar Purchases to Curb Yuan Rally
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
Trump Trade Anger Boosts Canadian Domestic Spending and Tourism
Trade is among people, and retaliation can be too: "Anger over President Trump’s trade policy has fueled a notable increase in Canadian spending on domestic products and local tourism, according to research from the Bank of Canada." https://t.co/Nmzo5Yn2ay
Expect Multiple Severe Bear Markets in Your Investing Career
Bear markets happen more often than many realize, and most people will have to navigate multiple severe downturns during their investing years. https://t.co/3M4SDMlWOY
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Bullish Equity Outlook
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
PPI Spikes 0.8%, Ending Rate‑cut Hopes
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
Post‑July Tariff Uncertainty May Stall Business Investments
"Meanwhile, new questions about what the tariff regime will look like after July, when Trump’s new global duties expire, could again put many business investments on hold, limiting the productive effect of any more immediate influx of cash." https://t.co/PeFBYyWQqH https://t.co/0oVZHlSMF9
Norwegian Krone Leads Safe‑Haven Surge Amid Debt Monetization
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
Bloomberg Overlooks Key Current Vs. Financial Account Split
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
US Producer Prices Surge Past Expectations in January
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Governments Will Counter AI-Driven Deflation Pressure
AI will not materialize into prolonged deflation as governments will be forced to act. A few weeks ago in my weekly Scouting the Tape piece I wrote the below. Give my presentation from last summer's Monetarium event a watch. https://t.co/FFulg5I5cg https://t.co/opgAb1hH2N
Tariff Payments Show Voters, Not Foreigners, Foot the Bill
The process and legal fights over paying back import taxes will help shove tariffs back into voters’ minds, as well as provide them an excruciatingly detailed civics lesson in who literally pays the levies. (Hint: it’s not foreign governments.) https://t.co/N8dOe6rapr
Yuan
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
Give Citizens Equity, They'll Protect Against Nationalization
If you want American citizens to defend your company from nationalization, you probably want to let them own a piece of it. Just my two cents.
Metals May Lift Commodities, Yet Risks Favor Decline
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
PBOC Eases FX Forwards, Stalls Yuan Rally Amid USD Consolidation
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
China Faces Capital Shortage, World's Least Crowded Trade
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.