PMI Spike Signals End of Bear Market, Favor Equities, Crypto
Quite good actually; The recent read on PMI gave a big outlier: 57.7 The highest read since May '22. It doesn't say that we immediately need to pump with #Bitcoin or whatsoever, although it gives an indication of where the economy and markets are going to. The good side, and the end of the bearish business cycle. Another argument to heavily accumulate equities & #Crypto at these regions and to lower the allocation towards Gold and Silver.
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Geopolitical Crises Cause Short-Term Pain, 5% Median Rebound.
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
No Market Dip After Iran Crisis Hints Bitcoin Surge
If this is the day that Khamenei is killed, Iran is being attacked by the U.S. And the markets aren't down at all. Then there's not really any argument left for uncertainty anymore and I would expect #Bitcoin to turn upwards. https://t.co/5S5RfEOLqd
Strait of Hormuz Status Threatens Shipping and Consumers
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
Bank Credit Surge Signals Inflation Pressure Ahead
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
IRGC Threatens Hormuz Closure, Risking Oil Price Surge
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly warned that no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade of the channel, which carries ~20% of global oil, threatens massive energy price spikes and severe, immediate disruptions...
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Near Dubai's Burj Khalifa, Evacuations Ordered
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
Energy Fundamentals Outweigh Geopolitics as US Capex Plummets
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
One Year of Hyperscaler Capex Stuns With Massive Scale
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
18 Industries Set to Generate $48T by 2040
Where will the next wave of global growth come from? 🌊 @McKinsey_MGI breaks down the 18 industries, from AI to healthcare, set to drive up to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040. These 🔟 charts visualize the future of competition: https://t.co/MURdZJwPdW...
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
US-Israel Strikes Trigger Global Market Volatility
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
Canadian Universities Face New Business Model Without Indian Students
The quiet part here is that Canadian universities will get a business development opportunity without Indian students coming to Canada and seeking to work & stay, as they had under Trudeau policies which saw their numbers grow exponentially.
Canada Shifts Toward US-Led Regime Change Policy
It is notable that PM Carney has put Canada behind regime change by US force in Venezuela & in Iran. I believe this is a departure from the traditional position Canada takes on the global stage, but eager to hear...
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets Rebound Fast After Geopolitical Shocks—Buy the Dip
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
Mainstream Economists Overlook Private Debt, Miss Recession
1/8 I predicted the Great Recession 3 years before it happened. It might sound ridiculous, but mainstream economists have convinced themselves that private debt does not matter. They only monitor government debt. EconomicTheory
Iran Bans Hormuz Traffic, yet Tankers Still Sail
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
EU Extends GSP Benefits to Special Economic Zones
News feed cleanse and the nerdiest post you'll see all weekend. The EU's new Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) rules will also apply to goods manufactured in special economic zones and export processing zones. Which is pretty cool.
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Trump’s Iran Threats Spark Retaliation, Oil Surge, Prolonged Conflict
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
Gold +22%, Silver +31% Amid Global Chaos
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
Community Buzzes Over 5‑Minute Macro Pro Q&A Clip
Our community is buzzin' about this 5 min clip from this week's Macro Pro Q&A Show https://t.co/MxH68qpK7Y
March Markets Driven by Existing Forces, No Policy Shifts
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
Qatar Airways Halts Cargo Amid Iran Strikes, Freight Costs Surge
Qatar Airlines is pausing cargo operations as the Iran strikes play out. Prices and transit times on Asia to Europe air freight spiking.
Iran Strike May Push Oil to $73.90 Resistance.
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next...
Record US Crude Exports Threaten Brent Price Rally
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
Germany's Factories Run Below Average Amid Green Sanctions Pressure
Germany’s manufacturing capacity utilization is only running at 77.5% in January. Its long-term average since 1991 is 83.2%. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE A DEADLY ONE - TWO PUNCH. https://t.co/S87Xs4GTJY
Predict the Next Global Shift with Real‑Time Intelligence
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Are Tariffs Still Viable for US 2026 BOP?
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Tariffs and "International Payments Problems" https://t.co/A8fIZJSUSB It has long been accepted that tariffs (eg Section 122) are an acceptable tool for managing BOP issues. The real question is whether they would be useful for the U.S. in 2026. https://t.co/CDdBRF2zxx
Druckenmiller Bets on Higher Rates, Cuts AI, Values Sizing
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
India Poised to Gain From U.S. Tariff Shift
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
BTC Below $67k: Stay Short Until $70k
Macro: BTC $70k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Lithium Demand Rebounds 25% as Low‑cost Supply Tightens Price Gap
Lithium bottom: demand +25% as EV/ESS rebound; SQM+Codelco JV raises low-cost supply, tightens cost curve; prices ≈70% below 2022 — overweight low-cost lithium producers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump Praises Pakistan, Signaling Shift From India
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Trump on intervention in Afghanistan–Pakistan: “I would, but I get along very well with Pakistan—great PM, great general, leaders that I respect. Pakistan is doing terrifically well.” More evidence of Trump’s PIVOT away from India towards Pakistan. https://t.co/aEvLxL5Ygh
China’s Gold Hoard Surges, Likely Underreported
🔥We are probably not bullish on gold enough: China's official gold holdings are now worth a record $370 BILLION, doubling in just 1.5 years. The value has more than TRIPLED since 2022. China is buying 10 TIMES more gold than it officially reports👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Global Debt Hits Record High, Driven by China, US
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Global Growth Cools, Central Banks Pause; Short EUR/USD
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Brent Contango Signals Market Downplays Iran Disruption Risk
Brent DFL rolling into contango suggests the market is fading the Iran oil disruption risk @Rory_Johnston A US strike will probably still happen But traders aren’t pricing sustained barrels off the market. #Oil #Brent #Iran #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics
US‑Iran Tensions Heighten Rare Earth Supply Scrutiny
The potential U.S. conflict with Iran will create an interesting dilemma regarding weapons re-arming and supply chains. Rare earth elements will come under even greater scrutiny, especially given the already strained trade relationship with China.
Malaysia’s Economy Faces Geopolitical Shock and Record IPO
Major news to track on February 27, 2026: 1. The Friday Power-Play: Malaysia's Economy in the Crosshairs A critical convergence of geopolitics and capital is reshaping Malaysia’s financial landscape this morning. From high-stakes Cabinet decisions on US tariffs to the largest...
EU Targets Pre‑consumer Scrap in CBAM to Stop Evasion
EU proposes CBAM treatment for pre-consumer aluminium and steel scrap to curb circumvention and boost traceability. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/eu-cbam-pre-consumer-scrap-proposal.html
February: Metals and Energy Surge While Stocks and Crypto Dive
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
New Global PMI Upswing Expected Through 2027
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
Cuba’s 49% Inflation Ranks Fifth Worldwide
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8
Gold Hits Record 8-Month Streak as S&P Falters
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
Next Week’s Trading Outlook: Key Markets, Themes, Risks
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ