China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
Eurozone Inflation Dovish, yet France‑Spain Surprises Challenge Doves
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...
China's True Trade Surplus Far Larger Than Reported
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
Strategic Lithium Reserve Needed to Stabilize Supply
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
US ITC to Study Impact of Stripping China’s Trade Status
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Korea Faces Speculative Bubbles Approximately Every Five Years
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj
Investment Hinges on Capital Cost, Not Cash Windfalls
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Nvidia Secures Limited H200 Chip License for China
Nvidia said it secured a license to ship a small number of its less advanced H200 chips to customers in China, inching forward in its bid to return to the world’s largest semiconductor market Small number? https://t.co/qcOey50mOL
Google's TPU Rental to Meta Fuels AI Chip Rivalry
Macro: AI compute demand surges. Google rents TPUs to Meta in a multibillion deal, sharpening TPU vs NVIDIA rivalry; AMD also supplies Meta. Risk: Google manufacturing limits. Trade: Buy GOOG. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Short‑term Gains Ignite the Citrini Doom Loop
This is precisely how the Citrini doom loop begins. The prospect of short term gains like this outweighs concerns over longer term externalities and negative feedback loops.
900 Companies Sue Over $100B Illegal Trump Tariffs
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
Economic Rebound Fuels Surge in Job Postings
What if the job postings theme was more of a macro story than an AI one and now that the economy is re-accelerating so are job openings?
Canada’s Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Chicago Fed Forecast Shows February Unemployment Near 4.3%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
US Chipmakers Turn to Sunrise Metals Amid Scandium Shortage
U.S. semiconductor manufacturers are feeling the pinch from Chinese restrictions on scandium exports, @Reuters reports, underscoring the importance of @SunriseMetals’ Syerston Scandium Project as an essential supplier to key U.S. industries. “U.S. chipmakers have experienced delays in receiving new scandium export licenses from...
US Tariff Cut Could Shift China Supply Chains
Lower tariff by US on Chinese goods. What will it mean to import supply chains? And to logistics? Especially container lines? A lot? Or not? Given soft CNY. @Lingling_Wei
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Terraform Lawsuit Exposes Hidden ETF Conflicts of Interest
Below is the AI-assisted summary of today's Spaces discussion on Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street and the wider questions it invites about the murky behind-the-scenes mechanics of how ETFs function. It also touches on the wider conflicts of interest that...
Canada’s FDI Hits 18‑year High at C$96.8B
Foreign direct investment into Canada jumped Q4, pushing yearly inflows to the highest level in 18 years. FDI totaled C$25.1 billion Oct-Dec, Statistics Canada reported, bringing the yearly sum to C$96.8 billion, the highest since 2007. https://t.co/yORmpTnnkH
Russian Oil Exports Up 6% Since Pre‑War
Is Russia exporting more oil now that it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war? Contrary to Western propaganda, the answer is YES. Russian crude export volumes are 6% above pre-invasion levels. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/pElmHdXmbQ
AI and Defense Spending Fuel $29 Trillion Debt Surge
In 2025, global debt surged by almost $29 TRILLION. Who are the culprits? According to the Institute of International Finance, they are AI AND DEFENSE SPENDING. https://t.co/R4ISyieJwn
Integrating Sentiment Surveys and Trends Into Market Analysis
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Tariffs Shift Income, Yet Better Redistribution Tools Exist
New CEPR paper looks at the economics of tariffs. Says "while tariffs can redistribute income between domestic winners and losers from trade, more efficient redistributive instruments typically exist." Not sure I agree, but I did like this chart. https://t.co/PCMMEJY9dc https://t.co/PWFT8xomhM
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Boosts Non‑Signatory Nations
Big win for STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. After the Supreme Court ruled most of Trump's tariffs unlawful last Friday, the biggest “winners” were countries that NEVER SIGNED ANYTHING, like Brazil China and India. https://t.co/V1MJQK07Ip
New Bill’s Stimulus Set to Boost Spending Soon
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
US‑Iran Tensions Push Gold, Oil up; Stocks
Since the US session has opened : Gold : higher Oil : Higher Vix : Higher Indices : Lower Talks between Iranian & US officials are not going that well so far & markets are clearly reacting to that. I am short on SPX (small risk...
Double Standards: Swiss Bank Targeted, Binance Pardoned
The hypocrisy of cutting off a Swiss Bank for facilitating payments to Iran and Russia, while the administration pardons CZ & family does business with Binance... https://t.co/p2PfBgrfDs
Adam Smith's Verdict on Today's Economy
March 9 will be the 250th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations. How would Adam Smith judge our economy today? We discuss it with @Jesse_Norman, author of Adam Smith, Father of Economics, and British MP. https://t.co/Y5fN0vHIkk
US Treasury OKs Venezuelan Oil Resale to Cuba, Details Murky
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Yesterday, the US Treasury said it would authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. But it remains UNCLEAR how or will this work. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS. https://t.co/PLsrYShRGo
Gold Forecast Rises to $6K‑$7K, JPMorgan at $6.3K
On February 3rd, I revised my gold forecast from $6,000 to $6,000-7,000 per ounce. JP Morgan just revised its end-of-year gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Hi3nzEv5w2
Importers Sold Claims for 20‑30¢,
Those importers who sold their tariff claims to Lutnick’s sons were only paid 20-30 cents on the dollar. Getting into the trade early? Are real importers concerned about getting refunds? Why? Dragging it out?
Thousands of Spanish Farmers Protest EU-Mercosur Trade Pact
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
Gold Prices Set to Remain High for Two Years
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
Policy Impact Seen Key in Youth Unemployment Surge
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
China's Duties Keep US Soybeans Off Its Market
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
TSMC Fuels Taiwan's $70B Quarterly Surplus, 33% GDP
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
EU Leaders Emphasize Energy Security and Affordable Power
Delighted to have a comprehensive discussion with @EUCouncil President António Costa @eucopresident in Brussels on global energy markets & European energy security – with a focus on the competitiveness of European industry & the importance of electricity affordability https://t.co/ixYMCcBHPY
Indonesia Likely to Miss US Farm Import Commitments
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
USDA Confirms 178k‑ton
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
Inflation Halved Dollar Value—Invest in Real Assets
Your dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power over the past 30 years. That’s not an anomaly. That’s the system. Inflation isn’t just a number - it’s a silent thief. Invest in real assets, or watch your money evaporate. https://t.co/vTylWHpPhj
US Export Sales Slump, Wheat Outsells Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5
Dollar Remains Dominant; No Viable Reserve Alternatives Yet
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
Brazil's Trade Surplus Ignored, Real Remains Undervalued
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
Dollar Hits Post‑Election Low, Signals Ongoing Debasement
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's January Trade Deficit Hits Near‑worst, Lira Tumbles
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
Brazil Real Rebounds to 4.50 as Dollar Weakens
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...