US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
China's December Short‑term US Deposits Signal Backdoor Intervention
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
December Goods Deficit Rebounds to Fall‑2024 Levels
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
FTSE100 Hits Record Highs Amid Earnings and Rate‑Cut Hopes
Another great discussion with @MrMBrown where we look at more record highs for the FTSE100, against a backdrop of decent earnings, and the prospect of a March rate cut from the BOE https://t.co/1QJd0kOMS5 via @PepperstoneFX @GoodMoneyGuide
Minor Rate Shift Not Truly Hawkish
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
Rates Dip to 2022 Lows, Sales Still Lagging
Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater: “Mortgage rates dropped again this week, now down to their lowest level since September of 2022.” The 30-year fixed averaged 6.01% this week, down from 6.09% last week. Meanwhile, pending home sales are DOWN after existing...
EUR/USD Tests Yearly Open Support, Decision Ahead
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time https://t.co/SHnGwyQMrX $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/2Uu9a1yink
Walmart CEO: Tariffs Gone, Wages Drive Pricing
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
Jobless Claims Stay Low, Equilibrium Unchanged
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
30‑Year TIPS Auction Pressures Long‑End Breakevens
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Miran Says Stronger Labor, Goods Inflation May Raise 2026 Dot
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
Iran Strike Could Spike Oil Above $90, Duration Key
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Iran's Infrastructure Attacks Raise Oil Risk Beyond Market Assumptions
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
Venezuela's Oil Revival Is Overhyped, Still Decayed
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut
The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
German ECB Critics Exit Over Fiscal‑Support Shift
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
Bipartisan Push for 3% GDP Deficit Cap Gains Momentum
I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget...
Bears Outnumber Bulls as Jobless Claims Hit Year Low
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
Redistribution Has Actually Grown, Contrary to Stingy Myths
One of the responses I got to my AI and the human touch piece was to claim it was absurd to imagine the government would redistribute more in the event of worse outcomes for some because the US is so...
Weaponizing Tariffs Invites Expectations to Weaponize Energy
This is what happens when you weaponize tariffs and international alliances: people will assume you would also weaponize energy exports.
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Sudan's Pound Plummets 27%, Ranks 6th Worst
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
China’s Growth Model Shift Faces Deep Structural Hurdles
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
India Bypasses US, Secures 114 French Rafale Jets
India isn’t waiting on Washington. It just signed a deal for 114 Rafale jets from France. This is more evidence that India is pivoting away from Trump’s threats from the US. https://t.co/kHtF1xgjEs
China’s Hidden Subsidies Dwarf IMF’s 4% Estimate
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
Trump Mulls Dropping Canada for Mexico Trade Deal
In our story today about Trump considering ditching Canada and doing trade deal with Mexico alone, we have exclusive reporting about the motivations behind the bridge debacle right at the top of the story. Gift link https://t.co/Al8Cm6RllY
Dollar Climbs vs G10, Stays Weak vs EM
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
North America Leads Dollar Decline, Europe Holds Firm
FX Market Awaits North American Leadership: The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific…...
Equity Futures Slip, Yields Rise Slightly Ahead of Jobless Claims
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
Mixed Currency Moves Amid Rising Iran War Risk
Hello Traders 📉 Stock futures🔻Iran war risk grows, Russia complains about Cuba oil blockade 🇺🇸 USD 🔄 mixed ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed & trade 🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 despite stronger current account 🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ supported by higher oil prices 🇬🇧 GBP 🔻 slides...
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
Trump Mulls US‑Canada‑Mexico Trade Deal Excluding Canada
Trump Mulls a North American Trade Pact Without Canada Exclusive reporting together with @AnaSwanson & @tylerpager on how we may be on our way to a USM and a USCA - if that. #cdnpoli #usmca https://t.co/Al8Cm6RllY via @NYTimes
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
India's Exports Surge Despite Higher US Tariffs
From the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects: Indian merchandise exports rose despite higher US tariffs. MODI’S ON A ROLL. https://t.co/yxKowcoHyv
Bitcoin Nears Longest Loss Streak Since 2022
🚨BITCOIN IS CLOSING IN ON IT’S LONGEST LOSING STREAK SINCE 2022 Bitcoin is approaching its longest losing streak in years as geopolitical tensions rise and shake up risk assets. Rising crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar are adding extra...
European Spies Say Russia Isn’t Seeking Peace, Talks Futile
“European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia's war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump's assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal ‘reasonably close’. The heads of five...
Takeovers and Venue Shifts Hollow Out UK Market
Not much News again. All these Takeovers and changes of Listing Venue have really hollowed out the UK market.
Three Multinationals Generate Half of Ireland's 2024 Tax Revenue
Ireland’s corporation tax receipts have become increasingly concentrated with just three multinational companies accounting for almost half of all of the revenue stream in 2024, watchdog warns https://t.co/of9w2dPPpV via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/iNNIyP8iwQ
Fuel Subsidy Masks Real Service Cost Surge
1.6% is a statistical illusion for the urban middle class While headline inflation is stable, the "unprotected" service sector is aggressive: Personal Care & Misc. → 6.6% Education → 3.2% Cause→Effect: Subsidized fuel (-0.7%) masks the reality of rising service labor costs. If you...
India's 6.5% Growth Beats China, Fastest Major Economy
As the World Bank notes, India is the fastest-growing major economy. India's growth rate of 6.5% is even outpacing China's. https://t.co/3S7a6Z6LbT
Nikkei Rises; Buy Nikkei ETF Amid FX Risks
Nikkei +0.71%; real estate, banks, textiles led; VIX-Nikkei 27.89. Leaders: Yokohama Rubber, Omron. Risks: FX (USD/JPY 155.11), commodity shocks. Trade: buy Nikkei ETF. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India Drives South Asia's 6‑7% Growth; Rest Lags
According to the World Bank, South Asia growth stays near 6-7%. Strip out India, and the region slows sharply. India is the growth story. https://t.co/Q8e7g9b1j3
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
Indonesia Leads Malaysia in Palm Oil and Economic Growth
What do Indonesia and Malaysia have in common? They are the two biggest palm oil exporters in the world. Since 2008, Indonesia’s economy has outperformed Malaysia’s. https://t.co/mTUct95oZv
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...