USD Coils Near Key Levels, Breakout Imminent
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
Russia's Pipeline Strike Sparks Absurd Diesel Bans
Russia: bombs Ukraine, damages an oil pipeline to Europe. The collaborator regimes in Hungary and Slovakia: banning diesel shipments to Ukraine because Russia damaged the pipeline. The level of inhuman grotesque borders on stupid comedy.
Critical Minerals and Energy Drive Global Economic Competitiveness
Very good meeting with 🇺🇸 US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy & Business Affairs @CalebOrr__ We discussed developments in global energy markets, the importance of critical minerals for energy & economic security and energy’s role in boosting competitiveness https://t.co/Z4YDq3jEJG
Dollar Holds Firm Despite Weak Conviction and Recent Lows
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
Upcoming UST Auctions May Cool Rally, Create Opportunity
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
China Quietly Amasses Dollar Reserves Despite Official Narrative
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
USD Rebounds but Short‑term Conviction Remains Weak
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
Markets Surge Higher After V‑Shape Recovery—Implications Ahead
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Aging Populations Strain Southern Europe; ECB Must Relinquish Yield Caps
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
US Energy Chief Declares Net‑Zero 2050 Impossible
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
Egypt's M3 Surge Drives Inflation Beyond Target
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
China Delays Auto Sales Data, Signaling Weakening Market
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
Shift to Equal‑weight, Financials, and Cyclical Assets
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
Global Indices Inch Higher as India VIX Plunges
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +50.50 (0.20%) 25,760.50 DowJones +32.26 (+0.07%) 49,533.19 Nasdaq +31.71 (+0.14%) 22,578.38 India Vix -0.6600 (-4.95%) 12.6700 S&P 500 +7.05 (+0.10%) 6,843.22
Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
Iran Opts for Limited Concessions, Postpones Real Deal Until Post‑midterms
Tehran will trade limited, face-saving concessions because it thinks it can survive bombs better than it can survive a domestic revolt. There will be a “bridge deal” that kicks the can. The real deal comes after US mid-term elections.' https://t.co/8UhDWkB5al #Iran #Israel #US #MiddleEast...
Saudi Crude Shipments to China Hit Multi-Year High
Saudi Arabia’s projected March crude oil shipments to China are set to reach a multi-year high. When it comes to commodities, China is always the elephant in the room. Maybe this is a bullish sign? Stay tuned. https://t.co/d55SdnfvJv
Chinese Capital Sneaks Into Bitcoin via Offshore IBIT Vehicle
Something caught my eye in the latest 13F filings. The biggest new entrant into IBIT, from a brand new entity, is something called Laurore Ltd. No website. No press. No footprint. The only public information is that the filer's name is...
Ford Pays Millions in Tariffs After Supplier Fire
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
Central Banks Amass Record Gold, China Adds 357 Tonnes
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
UK Unemployment Peaks Since COVID, Youth Jobless at 16%
#UKWatch🇬🇧: UK unemployment levels have reached their HIGHEST LEVEL since COVID. Youth unemployment ROSE TO 16.1%. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER’S GOVERNMENT IS FLOUNDERING. https://t.co/4jk4KQ1Q5I
Iranian Rial Crashes as US‑Iran Nuclear Talks Begin
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
Labor Market Dynamism Drives Real Competitive Advantage
Labor market dynamism is the real differentiator. I make sure to stress it in my public talks https://t.co/jO6lNyPm8W
Fed Says AI Boom Won’t Prompt Rate Cuts
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
Sanctions Spawn Shadow Fleet, Aging Tankers Scrapped in India
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 59M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
Iran Shuts Hormuz for Drills Amid US Nuclear Talks
"Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz as it held more indirect talks with the US." https://t.co/Ek0ckZEw6N Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuzon Tuesday for live fire drills in a rare show of force as its...
Oil Markets See Trump’s Hawkish Talk as Theater
Iran says it has “understanding on principles” with the US That was always the most likely outcome. Trump won't risk higher oil prices into an election cycle, writes @Ole_S_Hansen The oil market correctly judges his hawkish rhetoric as theater. #oil #Brent #Iran #geopolitics...
Third-Generation Auto Bailouts: How Long Until They're Considered?
How many years away are we from the third generation of auto bailouts being on the table?
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Business Inflation Expectations Return to Pre‑Pandemic Levels
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
U.S. Corn Inspections Surpass Expectations, Soy Exports to China Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Mistaking Short‑Term Labor Shortage for Full Employment Undermines Jobs
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Swiss Market Hits Record High as US Stocks Slide
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
SPY Poised to Break November Range Amid Key Data
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
Chinese AI Firms Double, Hitting $35B—West Should Follow
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
EURUSD Retreats to Fib Level as Longs Surge
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
Fed Rarely Cuts Rates During >8% Nominal Growth
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
Trump's Shadow Stalls Power Investment, Creating AI Bottleneck
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
Dalio Warns CBDCs Erase Privacy, Enable Political Control
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
Critical Days Ahead: Watch Core Risk Signals
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z