US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth #markets
Treasuries Prefer Higher Inflation Over Low Rates for Revenue
One of the under-reported stories in DM fiscal discourse is that for all the talk about how treasuries in the UK, US, France etc 'want' lower rates, they also want, and desperately, need high(er) inflation and the nominal tax revenue...
FX Steadies as JPY Slips on Weak Data
US and China's mainland markets are closed today. The FX market is calmer and most G10 currencies are little changed. $JPY is the notable exception as disappointing data weighs on it. See https://t.co/cyTShaySWO https://t.co/ZB9uMP7xUC
Oil Markets Now Price in Constant Tail‑risk
“Brent drops to $60 if Iran tension fades,” says SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. Sure — until the next mini-shock. That’s the point: this isn’t anomaly anymore It’s the baseline. Oil trades on recurring tail risk at the margin. https://t.co/qqfYS0QUG9 #oil #Brent #OPEC #Iran #geopolitics...
Bears Dominate Oil Market Narrative After Energy Week
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
Macro Risk Memo Extends Beyond Crypto After BTC Drop
In January, we outlined a late-cycle restrictive regime and leaned cautious on risk. Since then, BTC has declined materially and leadership has narrowed. The February Macro Risk Memo expands the framework beyond crypto into broader macro. Now live: https://t.co/QKQMRbbeKi https://t.co/b0h9q5CS5C
This Week's Macro Calendar Promises Major Market Volatility
🚨 KEY MACRO EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK: Monday – U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day Wednesday – December Durable Goods Orders release and FOMC Meeting Minutes. Friday – December PCE Inflation data is released and 15% of S&P 500 companies are reporting...
Institutional Cash at Historic Low Triggers Global Sell Signal
🚨Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' was triggered for the 7th month STRAIGHT: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets fell to 3.2% in January, the lowest EVER. Cash allocations at or below 4% indicate a SELL SIGNAL for world stocks.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-ended-the-week-mixed-after-a-powerful-rebound-on-friday-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-0
Sheinbaum Halts Cuba Oil to Evade Trump Tariffs
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
California's Gasoline Costs Rise From Bahamas Imports
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
FOMC Minutes May Spark Q1 Market Shift
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
Volatility Rises, Liquidity Dips, US Premium Deflates
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
Cuba's Power Generation Falls Below Half Demand.
ENERGY CRISIS IN CUBA: Granma, the mouthpiece of the Cuban regime, says that electricity generation in the island is covering less than half the expected demand. The island is suffering the largest energy shortages since the collapse of the Soviet...
Upcoming Week Packed with GDP, PCE, FOMC Insights
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
US Employment Costs Rise 0.7%, Lowest Since 2021
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
AI Hype Persists, yet Macro Data Shows No Productivity Boost
Three years after ChatGPT, AI is everywhere, except in macroeconomic data. If AI’s value is in productivity enhancement, it's still not showing up in the numbers. AI = LOTS OF HYPE. https://t.co/x96Abr0tD7
Tech Pressure Rises, Defensives Gain Amid Market Crossroads
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. 2. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. 3. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. 4. Private equity stocks are also coming under...
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
Lagarde: Incentives, Not Taxes, Keep Capital in Europe
ECB President Christine Lagarde says creating incentives for investments in Europe is a better approach to prevent capital outflows to other regions than imposing taxes https://t.co/ULSkU54mw5 via @Rauwald @mcnienaber https://t.co/KxLtLZqWrp
ECB Rate Hike Expected to Strengthen Euro, Says Capital Group
The ECB will raise interest rates at least once this year, significantly boosting the euro against the dollar, according to Capital Group, the $3.3 trillion asset manager https://t.co/CFxgbQlz0Q via @Sujata_markets https://t.co/6EBSHD6SYI
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
Core Services Inflation Stays Tame, No Overheating Signs
There's lots of commentary that US inflation will overheat, but there's no sign of that. My proxy for core services inflation was very well behaved in all of 2025 (purple) and the Jan. '26 data point (pink) was much more...
Hedgeye Nowcast Predicts Slowing Inflation, Yields Drop, Gold Rises
Hedgeye's Models vs. The Fed Reminder on the Hedgeye Nowcast for SLOWING US Inflation (which drove Bond Yields lower and Gold higher late this wk) Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a...
Europe Doubts US LNG Reliability Despite Past Optimism
A decade ago, I wrote an essay @ForeignAffairs about rise of US LNG w subhead "The benign energy superpower." https://t.co/P9r14hfb11 This week @MunSecConf, the Q I got most was whether Europe can trust US LNG to be reliable. And privately, senior...
China’s Renewable Surge Fueled by Coal, Not Climate
Your green cheerleading misses the power politics @dominictsz China’s solar and wind boom is built on COAL, backed by COAL, and financed by COAL. It’s the world’s LARGEST CARBON EMITTER — and it’s not chasing climate virtue, it’s chasing energy...
Speculators Turn to Oil for Stability Amid Market Turmoil
Speculative money is leaning back into oil as traders look for stability in a volatile world writes @Ole_S_Hansen Oil is becoming the preferred risk exposure in an otherwise uncertain macro landscape. Relative calm in crude contrasts with violent reversals in precious...
US Controls Slow China, Ignite Homegrown Chip Drive
NYT: "While Washington’s export controls have slowed China’s chip development, they have added fuel to Beijing’s decade-long push to make strategic technologies like semiconductors and A.I. entirely at home." https://t.co/OcHRXob06N
WTO Warns China's $1.2T Surplus Unsustainable, Urges Model Shift
1/2 AFP: "WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Friday urged China to change its growth model, arguing that its soaring trade surplus risked sparking new trade barriers. “The $1.2 trillion trade surplus is not sustainable because the rest of the world cannot... https://t.co/fvOrE6LYBH
BOE Holds Rate Decision Pending Crucial UK Inflation Data
BOE on knife edge over interest rates awaits pivotal UK inflation data https://t.co/xROceOBQ9W via @PhilAldrick @CraigStirling https://t.co/H5s8yIIXBQ
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: Key Trends Unveiled
Deep dive into Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/Yc09wNGpPK
Buffett’s Japanese Bond Move: Short Yen, Long Equities
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
RUB Strengthens as Oil Stabilizes, Gold Surges
Macro: MOEX flat as oil steadies and gold spikes; RUB strengthens (USD/RUB 76.65). Key drivers: commodity moves, stable RVI (24.9). Risks: commodity volatility, sanctions. Trade: buy selective energy exporters on RUB resilience. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Russia's Inflation Spike Tied to Excess Money Supply
Russia’s inflation comes in at 6.0%/yr in January. That's ABOVE RU's 4%/yr target. RU's M2 money supply is growing at 10.6%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
US Ramps up Pressure, Threatens Chinese Oil Imports
Maximum Pressure 2: More max, more pressure, another round of threatening Chinese sanctioned oil imports. https://t.co/UNNBJOFLTx
Venezuela Faces 651% Inflation, Cost of Living Crisis
The FT reports that the cost of living is Venezuelan's top concern. NO SURPISE. Today, I measure Venezuela’s inflation at a 651.5%/yr. Venezuela is the WORLD’S TOP INFLATOR. https://t.co/P4FBBSNdqk
USD Poised to Rise if Congress Regains Tariff Control
Wouldn’t that be something: $NVDA earnings 25th with SCOTUS decision on tariffs anytime after 20th… #IEEPA USD bullish in the short term if they hand back tariff control to Congress 🎰 $VIX
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
US Job Market Cooler than Washington’s Hype
Don't let first appearances fool you. The US job market is NOT as hot as the Spinmeisters in Washington DC crack it up to be. https://t.co/lKCBOl0rdi
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Global Money Supply Peaks, Crypto Braces for QT
US M2 is at ATH. Japan M2 is at ATH. EU M2 is at ATH. China M2 is at ATH. And the crypto market is acting like every major central bank is about to start QT. https://t.co/3tGwlu87Yb
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
Bank CEOs Earn $41M, Dwarfed by Tech Wealth
"Six Wall Street bank chiefs bring in combined pay of $250mn in 2025" On the one hand this is shocking. On the other hand $41m each pa is a marker of quite how far banks have been eclipsed by private...
Shell Forecasts Global GDP to Double by 2050
Shell base case assumes sustained 3.3% global growth GDP nearly doubles by 2050 #GlobalGDP #EconomicGrowth #EnergyScenarios #Shell #Macroeconomics #GrowthAssumptions #LongTermForecasts https://t.co/meXF1PuaVe