Venezuela Inflation Hits 651.5% Under U.S. Management
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Under Uncle Sam's management, Venezuela's economy continues to CRUMBLE. Today, I measure Venezuela’s inflation at 651.5%/yr. I REMAIN THE ONLY SOURCE OF ACCURATE INFLATION MEASUREMENTS FOR VENEZUELA. https://t.co/MpUeEa9s1S
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...
Yen Poised for New 2025 Lows Amid
The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in 2025 and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling...
Global Data Week: FOMC Minutes to RBA Jobs
Buckle up! Its going to be a VERY Busy Data Week ahead👇 🇺🇸 US -FOMC Minutes -Q4 GDP -Empire State & Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -IP -ZEW -PMIs 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -Retail Sales -CPI -PMIs 🇯🇵 JP CPI & GDP 🇨🇦 CA -CPI -Retail Sales -Trade 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PSI -PPI 🇦🇺 AU -RBA MINUTES -JOBS -PMIS
Modi Leveraged Trump Tariff Threat to Advance Free Trade
My take on PM Modi's clever move to reduce India's punishing tariffs and non-tariff barriers: "Modi used the tariff threat from Trump as cover to push for free trade between India and other countries." MODI = SMARTER THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/aTUbO8em04
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
Warsh Fed Expected to Slash Rates 100bps, Dollar Falls
My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by 100 bps in the 4 meetings after he takes over (June, July, September, October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction, but still price only 63...
Markets Discount Fed Cuts Amid Japan Election, Tariff Uncertainty
Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision on Tariffs? 8 Fed Officials Speak as the Market Discounts almost 65 bp of Cuts this Year: Last week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the...
Dollar Decouples: US Growth Rises as USD Falls
Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed, positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But...
Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chains Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Thanks @bmwfoundation for partnering w @ColumbiaUEnergy on such a substantive & productive session @MunSecConf on how to enhance critical mineral & energy supply chain security amid fragmenting geopolitics. Great insights from DOE’s @AlexFitzDC, @dan_brouillette & so many others. https://t.co/D1xRKHu7gO
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...
Big Shocks Make Firms Change Prices Faster, Speeding Inflation
Recent inflation surge has subsided in most advanced economies, but effects may linger in unexpected ways. Inflation responds much more rapidly to large shocks than standard models predict, because firms adjust prices more frequently when shocks are large https://t.co/Lrr7d9eevX
Import‑Dependent Nations Face Greater Food Insecurity, Regardless of Wealth
Countries that rely on staple imports to feed their population tend to report higher levels of food insecurity. This holds even after controlling for income per capita, suggesting that exposure to international markets is independent of development level https://t.co/2tzjysif3u
Wars Trigger Persistent Democratic Decline in Specific Contexts
Data covering 115 conflicts & 145 countries over past 75 years show wars cause large & persistent declines in democratic institutions. Not inevitable. It appears only in specific settings –first-time conflicts, internal wars, conflicts that governments win https://t.co/Lq6ORZiquj
EU Trade Surplus Shrinks as Tariffs and China Pressure
1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." https://t.co/91sJO2nGjP
Provincial Revenues Forecast 2‑3% Growth, Lagging Economy
1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." https://t.co/HwyAPw042O
UK Growth Stalls at 0.1% Amid Rising Taxes
The U.K.'s GDP grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025 and an ANEMIC 1.3% for the entire year. Under RUSSOPHOBE Keir Starmer, taxes are up, productivity is flat, and consumers are feeling squeezed. https://t.co/WDyleJsH6n
China Cracks Down on Hidden Corporate IOU Market
1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." https://t.co/FIJywKAtIX
Swiss Inflation Near Zero as Money Growth Slows
Switzerland’s inflation rate is on the low end of its TARGET RANGE at 0.03%/yr. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) has been growing below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.40%-6.40%/yr since 2020 & is now only at 4.58%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
China's January Financing Jumps 2.4% Year‑over‑year, Beating Forecasts
1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual...
South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year,...
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
China's Cheap Middle East Oil Squeezes West African Sellers
China is pulling more cheap oil from the Middle East. That leaves W. African oil struggling to find buyers until it gets cheap enough to move again, writes @JuneGoh_Sparta In this tight market, the Middle East has the upper hand. Sorry oil...
Politicized Asset Stewardship Spurs Lease Cancellations, REIT Shorts
Macro: politicized stewardship of public assets rising; Key: Interior canceled NLT lease; Risk: litigation & environmental hurdles delay projects; Trade: short park‑adjacent REITs. ⚖️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
OPEC+ Plans April Production Hikes Amid Sanctions
OPEC+ may restart April hikes to catch peak summer and regain share as sanctions bite Russia/Iran. https://t.co/cILwlUi7h2 #OPECplus #Oil #IEA #SaudiArabia #UAE #Iran #Russia
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
China and US Slowdown Drag Global EV Sales
Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January "Global EV registrations, a proxy for sales, fell by 3% year-on-year to almost 1.2 million units in January, according to the data, which includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They were down...
Trump's Tariff Push Backfires, Approval Slips Sharply
Trump's tariff blitz BACKFIRES. Approval ratings are tanking. 52% of Americans say Trump’s economic policies have made things worse. Now the White House is scrambling to put a positive spin on the US economy. https://t.co/a1JUyOz6LJ
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
Evolving Energy Security Toolkit Amid Fragmented Order, EU‑US Distrust
Energy security is high on the @MunSecConf agenda. I’ve been discussing how the toolkit to deliver it must evolve—amid a fragmenting global order, the need to accelerate the clean transition, and a far deeper level of European distrust toward the...
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
NYT Overlooks Money Growth, the Real Inflation Driver
The NYT credits cooling inflation to tariffs, housing, airfare, energy, & labor markets. But ignores money. Money growth has averaged 4%/yr over 2025 — far below the 6.3%/yr Golden Growth Rate, consistent with hitting the US's 2%/yr inflation target. https://t.co/tk42l7TVVZ
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
Trump Tariffs Add $1,300 Hidden Tax per Household
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Key Differences Between OFAC's New GL
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)