US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly would come with risk of alienation and disapproval from Arab nations. The US needs its allies in the region and is not in a place where it can afford to lose a lot of goodwill with these countries.
Regulation Entrenches Incumbents, Stifling Innovation and Growth
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Danny Moses Show Returns: Economy, AI, Markets Forecast
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...
Markets Trade Transition as Central Banks Hold Steady
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
Explore 100+ Years of Industry Economic Geography Data
If you are interested in over 100 years of economic history and data on these geographic trends for this industry, I have some here for you: https://t.co/kayw0VoAML
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
Prometheus Macro Impresses; Aahan Delivers Real Quant Success
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
AI’s Growth Hinges on How Hard New Ideas Become to Discover
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
Americans Foot ~90% of Trump Tariff Costs
The New York Fed announced that US businesses and consumers paid NEARLY 90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/xEEfGxreUm
Bitcoin Beats Gold, Outperforms by 5% in Hours
Gold is "no longer actual gold," Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says. "Bitcoin outperformed gold by 5% in the first three hours of trading on Friday, Feb 13th" 😂
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
AI‑driven Spending Masked Recession; Recovery Now Emerging
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...
Netherlands' 36% Unrealized Gains Tax Slashes Decade‑Long Wealth Growth
A new 36% unrealized gains tax passed in the Netherlands. This means assets that have increased in value are now taxed, even if not sold. See the devastating impact on wealth growth over 10 years. #CryptoTax #Netherlands #IvanClips https://t.co/OMzGMofQhw
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
AI Hype Isn’t Boosting Profit Margins Across the Economy
If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
Political Gridlock Stalls $22B US EV Investment
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
Energy Power Plays Trump, Russia, China Militarize Oil
Trump talks "deals" with Iran while Russia & China talk about naval escorts of Iranian oil to Cuba, writes @TheMichaelEvery The US repeals carbon regs & hopes to restart Venezuelan oil output soon. Energy is being militarized Markets, sanctions & climate...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
EU's Unanimity Stalls Energy Policy, Ignoring Reality
Brussels is fixing process while ignoring physics. The EU 28th corporate regime finally admits that unanimity is incompatible with speed But until green plans are scaled back & some return to Russian oil & gas supply is discussed— everything else is...
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...