Fed Leadership Uncertain After Trump's Threat to Fire Powell
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts weighed in on. https://t.co/12tV1z45co
UK Braces for Food Shortages Amid Iran War, CO2 Crunch
UK prepares for food shortages caused by Iran war CO2 crunch https://t.co/qFnOtL67qw via @AlexJFMorales https://t.co/bHzHKpAe8F
Blockade Targets Iran's Oil Lifeline, Forces Negotiation
Great piece by @PatcohenNYT in today’s @nytimes on what the blockade means for Iran’s economy. Oil exports are the life blood of Iran’s economy, so choking those off is a good inducement for the mullahs to negotiate in earnest and...
Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
IMF Growth Forecasts Too Pessimistic, Revised Upward After Conflict
One year ago, the IMF put out its growth forecasts (blue) right after Liberation Day. Those forecasts were far too pessimistic and were revised up 6 months later (red). It's the same with this week's forecasts if the war -...
Trump Seeks to Turn Fed Win Into Prolonged Defeat
President Trump seems to be trying to find a way to turn an easy win on the Fed into a long slog of a loss. My latest column: https://t.co/K1glC171IN
U.S. Launches First Day of Iran Blockade
The blockade of Iran has officially begun. The first day was a bit slow, but this remains a monumental move by the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/IHDSzOzsGV #iranwar #straitofhormuz #geopolitics https://t.co/1fzk2tvwUx
Iran War Market Impact Mirrors April‑May 2020 Covid Shock
To the extent Covid is the analogy for the war in Iran’s impact on markets, it might be April-May 2020 rather than February 2020.
UK Growth Surged Pre‑Iran War, Highlighting Middle East Impact
The UK economy was expanding quickly in the weeks leading up to the outbreak of war in Iran, revealing the extent to which conflict in the Middle East has changed British fortunes https://t.co/98fS2AXHPL via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/UzfESDAIWx
Germany Faces Asymmetric Risks: Small AI Gains, Large Shock Losses
Good Morning from Germany, where the risk map is brutally asymmetric. Oxford Economics says an AI boom would add just 0.1ppts to annual growth over the next 3 years. A tech downturn would cut 0.6ppts, and a worst-case trade war...
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% Amid Tech Surge
China collapse fans will not be pleased.... China's Q1 2026 GDP just came in at 5.0% YoY — beating expectations, matching full-year 2025, fastest pace since Q2 2025. Services surging, semiconductors up 20.6%, industrial robots up 24.4%. Yes, property still a drag. Yes,...
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
China’s Renewable Growth Dwarfs World, Contradicting Trump’s Claim
At the World Economic Forum, Trump claimed China makes renewable equipment but doesn’t use it. Reality: Over the past few years, China’s growth in wind and solar usage has exceeded the rest of the world COMBINED. TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARELY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/SGRBqnFkj6
Investors See War Relief, Yet Market Remains Uncertain
While no one has a crystal ball to foresee the exact future outcome, investors seem to be starting to think that the worst of the US-Iran war is over. As evidenced by yesterday's S&P 500 closing price. That said, I...
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
Iran Conflict Undermines Gulf Oil Leaders' Stability
The Iran war complicates life for the custodians of the Gulf’s oil fortunes @TheEconomist https://t.co/VapxyZ5JLr
No Viable Alternative: $2 Trillion
There is no alternative (TINA). Or put it another way, where would you hide USD2trn? Not in HSI...
China's Q1 2026 Imports Surge 19.6%, Exports Rise
1/4 On Tuesday China reported that the total value of exports in the first three months of 2026 was RMB 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9% year on year, while the total value of imports was 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. https://t.co/5TDMdkLpCw
BOE’s Greene Confirms Traders Correctly Cut Rate Hike Bets
BOE’s Greene says traders were right to trim rate hike bets https://t.co/TDPziGklgr via @irinaanghel12 @flacqua https://t.co/UsKWcSk4T7
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
BOE Governor Bailey Says No Rush to Raise Rates
Bailey says the BOE is in no rush to raise interest rates https://t.co/sRlVcO2gnl via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/b3RMDYFimy
India Overtakes US for Second Spot in Solar Growth
Market Share: While China remains the undisputed leader (accounting for over 60% of global additions), India is set to secure the #2 spot for yearly growth, overtaking the United States.
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
ECB Officials Likely to Keep Rates Steady in April
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward an April rate hold https://t.co/EdJESl5bdm via @jrandow https://t.co/68cFQ4Gs2V
China Threatens Vague Retaliation on Foreign Firms Before Trump Summit
China Sharpens Retaliatory Tools Against U.S. Ahead of Trump Summit—Beijing responds to Washington’s trade pressure with broad but vague threats aimed at foreign businesses @ByChunHan @yoyominnie https://t.co/itS181EOEe https://t.co/itS181EOEe
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
China's Food Security Policy Fuels Global Fertilizer Scarcity
China is prioritizing food security over producer profitability That keeps fertilizer cheap at home while exporting scarcity to global markets. China has a strategy The US hauls Bessent into a WH press conference to make false promises about $3 gas by September
Taiwan Emerges as Global Economic Powerhouse
Three facts worth storing in memory: -Taiwan’s stock market is now bigger than the UK’s -Taiwan is on track to be a larger source of US imports than China. -Eight of the world’s ten largest companies rely on Taiwanese (#9 & #10...
US Threats to Chinese Banks Irrelevant as Iran War Persists
US letters threatening Chinese banks supporting Iran are irrelevant Unless the war with Iran drags on. That tells you all you need to know. The war with Iran is not ending soon. That has dire consequences for the global economy #Geopolitics #Iran #China #Sanctions #OilMarkets
IRS Cuts Act as Tax Breaks for the Hidden Wealthy
Here’s the thing—especially on April 15: cutting the IRS isn't some abstract budget trim. It's a tax cut delivered through weaker enforcement. And it mostly goes to people with the most scope to hide income. https://t.co/HAu6RDag6P
Hormuz Crisis Drives 3‑5% Rise in Indian Luxury Construction
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Threatens Luxury Housing in India. Developers are worried about delayed imports of key materials like aluminium, steel, Italian marble, and tiles. This is causing higher costs and possible delays in construction. Prices of these imported materials have already...
China's Q1 GDP Masks Weak Consumer and Investment Demand
China Q1 2026 real GDP is STRONG at 5%, but details show that consumption and investment are very weak. Nominal retail sales are soft at 1.7% for March and for the quarter it's only growing 2.4% nominally, which means REAL RETAIL...
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
US Says Blockade Stopped Chinese Iranian Oil Purchases
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.
Trump Pushes “Trade over Aid” Policy, Prioritizing Self‑interest
Make America A Selfish Piece Of Shit Again Trump administration pushes nations to sign ‘trade over aid’ declaration https://t.co/2U3JCiFXDd
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
Taiwan's Market Cap Overtakes UK at $4.14 Trillion
Taiwan’s stock market total market cap just hit $4.14 trillion - now exceeding that of the UK
Australian Fuel Crunch Deepens After Refinery Fire
Australia's fuel crunch is set to get worse 🇦🇺🚨 A major fire at one of Australia’s only two oil refineries will shut some of its production. The refinery supplies 10% of domestic demand Australia’s petroleum product supplies were already really tight due...
Inflation Stems From Tight Supply, Capex Still Low
This chart gets to the heart of today’s inflation problem: Constrained supply. The only real solution starts with a surge in capital investment from commodity producers. With capex still near cycle lows, there’s little chance of meaningful new supply hitting the market...
Politician Urged to Hear Small Businesses Hit by Tariffs
Yeah, and he should talk to all the American small businesses crushed by tariffs whether they're "unfelt," too.
Discussing US‑Iran Dueling Blockades on BBC
Just hoped on with @BBC to discuss dueling blockades between the US and Iran. https://t.co/9xarJfOGbr
FDI
Anyone else surprised at the relative slopes in the FDI graphs between 2005-2015 vs 2015-2025. https://t.co/tlWbOdmfMF
China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions
Most of China's industrial policy is in the form of bank loans, not subsidies. Yes, you can lend to 100 companies, and 2 survive, and then you have 2 national champions. But you also have a mountain of bad debt on...
EU Law Threatens British Car Makers, $94bn Trade
The EU should urgently adjust a proposed law that will discriminate against British automobile manufacturers and undermine $94 billion of annual trade, according to a trade group https://t.co/XnG2unYGQg
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
Mearsheimer: Israel Prioritizes Iran Destruction Over Peace Deal
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Israel's REAL priority: “The Israelis have no interest in a deal... they want us to destroy Iran or produce regime change.” https://t.co/233nZvjiPA