AI Hype Fails to Boost Productivity, Says Fortune
My take on AI productivity in @FortuneMagazine: “Forget the AI bubble. Productivity was weak, and if AI had delivered, productivity would be way up. The Silicon Valley guys say GDP is going to 5% or 6%, but it’s just not happening.” SO MUCH FOR THE AI HYPE. https://t.co/HduiBu4aqe
China’s Oil Intensity Exceeds U.S., Despite PPP Claims
China uses more oil per unit of GDP than the U.S. (roughly 20–30% higher) Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) can achieve the 40% claim but that seems dubious. The USA produces lots of oil (with Canada) which China doesn’t have so it...
CBP's Phase One I
CBP just announced its IEEPA duty refund process. Phase One targets ~63% of eligible entries via ACE with a ~45-day processing goal. But no formal timeline on when money actually hits accounts. Key exclusions from this first phase: liquidated entries,...
Hong Kong Enables Iran's Hidden Billions, Weakening U.S. Sanctions
How Hong Kong Helps the Flow of Iran’s Hidden Billions—U.S. sanctions lose their bite in a Chinese city where setting up a company and moving money is easy @austinramzy https://t.co/LUrgqUohBe https://t.co/LUrgqUohBe
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Blamed on Trump’s Tariffs
According to @UMich, the April U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index has plunged to a RECORD LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/UwrnBpKdKP
Bypassing Sanctions Mirrors Abandoning the Dollar System
Blood in the water attracts sharks. Bypassing US sanctions to buy oil directly from Iran is akin to bypassing the USD system all together. Will Trump renig on foreign payments too? #TradeDeficit #FiscalDeficit
Easter Week Triggers Broad Energy Price Collapse
Third Gulf War — energy impact: (week-on-week; Apr 2 to Apr 9 due to Easter) Dated Brent oil: ⬇️ -10.9% (physical,no futures) WTI crude oil: ⬇️ -13.4% TTF EU nat gas: ...
Molly Jong-Fast Unpacks Trump Economy, Trade War, Truth Crisis
Today's pod: The brilliant @mollyjongfast had me on Fast Politics to discuss the Trump economy, the trade war, the war war, and the war on truth. https://youtu.be/-2poUJZP_fQ?si=VtfGr80vGj_Xa7JA
Tariffs Promised Jobs, Delivered 150,000 Job Losses
Trump said his tariffs would bring blue-collar jobs BACK TO THE US. Instead, it’s raised costs and DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS. The US LOST 150,000 manufacturing and construction jobs last year. https://t.co/A9EMjCoeP3
SK's Memory Supply Vulnerable: 97% Israeli Bromine
Any Korean semis analysts out there pricing in a Korea/Israel diplomatic crisis. @zephyr_z9 @jukan05? SK relies heavily on Israeli bromine for memory I think 97% comes from them. https://t.co/Q4NeUSDrp8
Hidden Debt Transfers Burden, Distorts National Income Distribution
The East is Read has translated a very interesting paper by Wang Xiaolu. Speaking about "debt burdens the borrower could not service", he notes that "debt may be written off on paper, but the loss is ultimately shifted, through various...
US‑Iran Talks Set for Pakistan Tonight or Tomorrow
Another round of negotiations between the US and Iran will be held tonight or tomorrow in Pakistan, per Iranian state affiliated media.
India Boosts Russian Oil Imports as Sanctions Loosen
With sanctions on Russia being temporarily lifted, India is importing Russian oil at the highest level since June 2023. One of the few benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran is that the ill-founded international sanctions regime is coming unglued. GREAT. https://t.co/AvoKEQsvds
Markets Price 65% Chance of June Rate Cut
S&P 500 just had its best week of 2026 +3.6% for the week. Nasdaq +4.7%. What triggered it: - Trump's 90-day tariff pause - Oil down on Iran de-escalation - Markets now pricing 65% June rate cut Here's the thing nobody's saying 👇
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates About 1% Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.39%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.08% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
From Occupation to $1 Trillion: Norway’s Wealth Revolution
In 1945, Norway emerged from 5 years of brutal Nazi occupation. War-torn. Bankrupt. Dependent on foreign aid. Today: A $1+ trillion sovereign fund making every citizen wealthy. How they built the world's ultimate money machine:
IMF Graph Misstates 1960s Defense Spending Share
Unless I am seeing things, there is something wrong with this graph in @IMFNews WEO Chp2 2026. World defense spending did no halve as a share of global gdp in the mid 1960s! Can anyone explain. Ive checked...
Poor Must Trek Days Just to Send Money Home
My maternal grandfather was a house servant in Mumbai. Every time he had to send money back home to my grandmother and kids, he had to walk 3-4 km to reach the nearest post office. Home was a small village...
Global Trade Faces Redirection Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
From Liberation Day thru the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and its supply chains being redefined, redirected, and reduced? And by how much? Supply chain risk mitigation or kicking the can down the road? And logistics? https://t.co/3oxe5s4MVA
US Agrees to Release Iranian Frozen Assets, Dismantling Sanctions
Reuters reports that Iranian sources have indicated that the US has agreed to release Iranian frozen assets. The ill-advised, counter-productive international sanctions regime is being DISMANTLED. IT'S ABOUT TIME. https://t.co/AMcZpe0Vwr
China’s Bureaucracy Embraces Export Controls, Unseen Impacts Loom
China’s bureaucracy has discovered export controls and likes them, we haven’t seen all the effects yet
Fed Studies Tariffs' Impact on Goods Inflation
The Fed has been putting out research reports trying to assess how much goods inflation can be attributed to the tariffs. https://t.co/F4ND6acO1f https://t.co/a0LGrXd9pw
China’s Power Surge Outpaces US, Boosting Geopolitical Clout
China added 1,514 GW of power capacity in 4 years. The US added just 161 GW. ENERGY CAPACITY = GEOPOLITICAL POWER. https://t.co/mIUmWJOAqL
US Destroyer Turns Back After Iran Threat via Pakistan
https://t.co/BrBdceeoER Interesting take by Bloomberg: A US destroyer was seen moving from Fujairah toward the waterway, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said separately. Iran’s armed forces monitored it and conveyed this to the US via Pakistani mediators, the news agency said. The US vessel...
Trump’s Oil Exports Could Spike U.S. Gas Prices
I wonder what Trump will do when he realizes that selling U.S. oil overseas raises gas prices here. I assume no one will ever tell him.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Chaos and Contradiction
What Does This Ceasefire Actually Mean? Once again, we've found ourselves in a chaotic and contradictory situation. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is shaping up to be one big cluster. #iranwar #geopolitics
Supply Chains Face New Test: Hormuz Free Passage or Toll?
Dating back to the pandemic, the world is again learning of supply chains. But the lessons/takeaways if and when the Strait of Hormuz is opened? As free passage or a toll for Iran.
Government Claims 21% Health Insurance Cost Decline Over Five Years
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 21% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/YUTqN8BlGp
Gold Peaks Signal Potential 25% S&P Decline
When Parabolic Gold Peaks, Stocks Typically Drop The stock market tends to decline when gold peaks from high-velocity rallies. Will it be different this time? My graphic highlights the metal rolling over from its greatest premium to the 20-quarter moving average...
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Reduced Odds Trump Would Enforce Oil Export Ban
Let’s look on the bright side—all else equal, this probably reduced the odds Trump imposed an oil export ban.
Hormuz Crisis: Shipping Stalled, Energy Flows Disrupted
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t “closed.” It’s worse than that. Shipping isn’t returning. Energy flows are broken. Confidence is gone. Dispatch 107 - Hormuz Reality Check, is out now. Exclusive to gCaptain Club Members: https://t.co/k7iXw2TSrB
Fed Denies Error While Abandoning Public‑Interest Monetary Policy
Evidence @federalreserve denies to go down in history as greatest policy error in history. To defend a political assault, they’ve abdicated a sworn duty to make monetary policy in the “public interest.” Perhaps a fuller explanation is warranted followed by doing...
Energy Self‑sufficiency Shifts Oil Shock Costs to Consumers
We’ve seen this movie before, but not on the same technology. In the 1970s, an oil shock made America poorer overall. Today we’re far more energy self-sufficient, so the big story is less national collapse and more who gets stuck...
EPL Athletes Generate £2.1bn Tax, Then Flee
Capital flight of the Athlete class is something Ive spoken about. £2.1bn from EPL alone in tax receipts from a very small number of people.
Ceasefire Hope Boosts Risk Appetite, Rallies Equities
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal: Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell...
Growth Slows, Inflation Sticks: Cut Treasuries, Buy Cyclicals
Macro: growth cools; inflation sticky. Key: Fed, CPI, earnings. Risks: stagfllation, liquidity shock. Trade: shorten duration (cut long Treasuries). Outlook: volatile; favor cyclicals on dips. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Energy Prices Surge, Sparking Crises Across Europe and Developing Nations
This reporting from The Guardian gives us a feel for the growing pressures in Europe as energy prices remain high. The situation is worse in some developing countries, where physical shortages are already occurring. #economy #MiddleEastWar #oil #energy @guardian
Monthly Inflation Nowcast Predicts CPI Acceleration 90% Accurate
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built...
U.S. Oil Production Increases Vulnerability to Price Shocks
Being a top producer doesn’t insulate the U.S. from oil shocks It amplifies exposure. Oil is priced globally, and the U.S. economy is more oil-intensive than its peers, so higher prices hit harder. Those who think the US is less affected are...
Financialization Fuels Collapse: Bankers Win, Workers Lose
my BOOK OF THE SUMMER: 'The bankers did well, workers did not...' 242 devastating pages by @B_Eichengreen. on what money says about society. it is profound how from BCE to BDCs our collapse is 'financialized'. minimal math; maximum depth and...
Most Stock Returns Driven by Market, Not Picking
“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity...
Ceasefire News Drops Oil Futures, Defying Shortage Expectations
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
Dollar Poised for Further 5% Decline Amid Widening G10 Gap
The Dollar has a lot further to fall. Look at the gap that's opened up between the Dollar versus the G10 (blue) and the corresponding interest rate differential (black). We're talking about another 5% drop as negotiations continue and war...
Ceasefire Confirmed, US‑Iran Talks Push Dollar Lower
Earlier this week, I predicted we'd get a ceasefire. We did. The US and Iran are negotiating, a big step forward. Lots of details to iron out, but the war is ending, which is hugely risk positive. As a result,...
Energy‑GDP Link Means Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Economy
Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the...
GDP per Capita Can Be Inflated by Tax‑driven Accounting
And just to give one example of why GDP per capita is a useless metric: Look at Ireland here. Do you really think that Ireland is so much wealthier than the US and all its European counterparts? Ireland has made a business...
Macron Demands Concrete Action on Global Imbalances
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Iran War Shock
US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/0Xr3HV1riR