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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Today is March 9th. Do you remember March 9th, 2009. That day the equity markets bottomed out after the Global Financial Crisis. Happy Anniversary.
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
China Consumer Inflation Beats Expectations on Holiday Boost—The consumer-price index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in February https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
The only question that matters in the next few weeks is whether Beijing concludes that the Iran escalation cutting off 40% of Chinese oil imports was deliberate and therefore demands a strategic response, or concludes that it was reckless and...
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
If you want to understand global oil trade think of this as the world's circulatory system. Pinching the Strait of Hormuz is like closing a major artery. It will cause damage the longer it is closed and if not careful, you either...
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Beyond market dynamics. Financial stress and the way forward in a war stricken economy. https://t.co/LIopIEO6s7 https://t.co/BjcTLG016G
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
A sophisticated man like Bessent “unsanctioning” Russian oil as Russia is… 1. Openly supporting Iran 2. Reportedly helping Iran target US assets 3. Still fighting Ukraine …strongly suggests the Trump Admin knows these oil disruptions are going to be longer than expected.
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...
On Liberation Day, we created a Long/Short basket (dollar neutral) meant to capitalize on any fears of stagflation due to Tariffs. That wasn’t our expectation, however. We wrote “The likely result…the administration declares victory, and most tariffs eventually come down...
Trump on oil prices above $100 a barrel: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a small price to pay.” https://t.co/jdsCvB0BtP
Voters are already anxious about the economic impact of AI, and the effects will surely grow in the coming months and years. Yasmin Khorram and Cheyenne Haslett explain what's happening, with some data from our Canaries in the Coal Mine...
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva,” of the Strait of Hormuz. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” https://t.co/x0YxXLfMu6
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
The President is aware and addressing it. How heavy will be the expectation for an offramp on Iran so that he can stabilize the markets?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
NQ drops 200 points on the open with a wide gap WTI above $100 for first time since 2022 24,000 will likley tested as sentiment sours over expanding conflict in Iran Prepare to hear doomsday all day long on talking head TV
How the US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Oil, Gas, and US Stocks | Anas Alhajj... https://t.co/ZnJKFSYWCr via @YouTube
In theory, this looks like they are trying to let gold be a release valve of the coming oil inflation. If so, this would be smart IMO, because if gold goes to $7,000, nothing happens…but if oil goes to $130, all...
YARDENI: “.. We can’t rule out a bear market if investors start to anticipate a Stagflating 1970s Redux scenario. .. We are lowering the ‘Meltup’ scenario from 20% to 5% and increasing the ‘Meltdown’ scenario (which now includes a 1970s-style...
There is also the argument that China is prepared and better positioned than many expect. #Hormuz #Iran
Zillow just updated their 2026-27 rental market forecast. They're projecting single-family rent growth at only +1.1% in 2026, and +0.5% in 2027. With multifamily rents dropping -0.2% and -1.5%. They also project CPI rent growth to fall to ~1.0% by early 2027, which...
Pretty much agree with everything @abcampbell wrote in this. He articulates things very well. 1. Long oil and gas equities who stand to benefit from higher for longer futures curves https://t.co/OpqxY05aWo 2. Economic growth will be tested and small cap longs behind...
America's northern neighbors have gone negative on the Good Old USA. A STUNNING 74% of Canadians view the US in an unfavorable light. TRUMP TARIFF THREATS = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO CREATE ENEMIES. https://t.co/NrtlXSevsb
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
Happy International Women’s Day. Best way to boost growth and stimulate economies globally- is more female inclusion. The stats from the World Bank are stunning https://t.co/qbI4nWksqf
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
If you thought oil and energy was the only thing impacted by the Gulf War, hang on to your containers.
“It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.” #AdamSmith’s advocacy of #freetrade remains relevant today—though you wouldn’t think so from...
American support for international trade is at an all-time high (and, no, not just among Democrats) https://t.co/QayxCkWNFn
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
