Europe's Dependence Makes US Alliance Politically Unsustainable
Meloni can't be reelected if she sees USA as an ally. I think most European politicians faces the same reality. Therefore the break between USA and Europa is probably a done deal. However Europe can't defend itself, is reliant on energy, commodities and technology from USA, China and Russia.
BEA's Next Move: Legal Services CPI Drop vs PPI
There was a large fall in CPI legal services. Now the question is whether BEA will use this in the PCE, where it would cut about-3.5bps from the core rate, or whether they will use the PPI (which they prob...
Horm
VIDEO COLUMN (2): The Hormuz question. What's happening in the world's most important oil and LNG chokepoint? Let me explain the situation in the strait, and how its shipping lines (and status) are changing, perhaps for ever. @Opinion #Hormuz #IranWar ...
War Data Reveals Soaring Inflation, Explained in Two Minutes
We just got the first hard economic data showing the effects of the war, and it shows inflation surging. Lemme take two minutes to explain what it all means while talking into a baby koala's butt. https://t.co/uYzeWmSssj
High Oil Prices Boost Colombian Peso, Brazilian Real
We've now reached the point where commodity exporters in Latin America are up from before the start of the war with Iran. We're getting a ceasefire, but oil prices will stay elevated for a long time. That lifts the ...
Ghalibaf Demands Lebanon Ceasefire, Frozen Iranian Assets Release
Ghalibaf says two conditions must be fulfilled before negotiations with the US begin: 1. A ceasefire in Lebanon 2. The release of Iran's blocked assets The blocked assets refer to tens of billions in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks under...
Tariffs and Rising Oil Prices Fuel Dual Inflation Surge
A careful look at goods prices from RBC: "beneath the surface, the ramifications of tariffs are building, and spiking oil prices will add to pre-existing tariff price pressures with both core and headline inflation rising in tandem" https://t.co/s3UBEqwL6N https://t.co/3ATUrAvoZg
Simplified Mankiw‑Reis Shows Rate Hikes Cut Future Inflation
A slightly simplified version of Mankiw-Reis makes it trivial to compute analytic solutions, and solves one of the main problems of monetary economics, how higher interest rates lower inflation going forward https://t.co/SmAZBHBBhR
Asian Q1 Trade Surplus Rises as Chip Exports Soar
Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter. Weak oil and gas import volumes in March, but mostly surging chip exports https://t.co/LP5kTo4Nfs
CPI Hits 3.3% Confirming Inflation’s Stubborn Rise
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4%/yr in February to 3.3%/yr in March. That didn't surprise me. The three-month annualized CPI back in February was precisely 3.3%/yr. As I've been saying, the Fed is not going to be able to put...
AI Chip War Sparks Investor Risks in US-China Trade
AI Chips Are A Looming Battlefield In U.S.-China Trade. What Investors Should Know. https://t.co/FcrSZnqDwz $TSMC $AMSL $INTC $MU $NVDA $TSLA
Now Is the Worst Time for Inflation and Recession
Not sure I would choose this moment for higher inflation, a recession, or worse, a combination of the two... https://t.co/KWuFPa4buE
Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis
weeks away. even if normal traffic resumes through the strait of hormuz today, this won't provide relief.
Stagnant Wages Can't Keep Pace with Rising Prices
The reason it feels hard to get ahead right now is because it's hard to get ahead right now. Wages are barely keeping up with prices, and prices are just starting to heat up. https://t.co/Lb4BnQl6Un
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
Gulf Shut‑ins Suggest Negative Prices, Futures Mislead
Here's something to think about and chew on: The mass production shut-ins across the Gulf (~13 MMbpd) imply effectively negative crude prices West of Hormuz—otherwise they could and would still be selling to someone. But futures markets are "implying" (as far as...
Every Trump Policy Proves Inflationary, Says Analyst
Dog-walking and Kernenfreude aside, all of Trump's policies have been--to one degree or another--inflationary. War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary Trump cheerleaders will mumble something about the deregulation fairy and the productivity fairy...
Pomp Dismisses CPI Data, Demands Immediate Fed Cut
CPI drops one tenth of 1% Pomp: Tariffs work, deflation is happening, the Fed needs to immediately cut to 0. CPI rises 6 tenths of a %. Pomp: 'The CPI is fake' https://t.co/xH6v2pB7Kh
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
March CPI Reveals Direct Cost of Trump's War
The March CPI gives us the first direct measure of the cost of Trump's war https://t.co/ffGoUMp3S3
Russia Gains Strategic Advantage From US‑Israeli Conflict
As I’ve been saying since Day One of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/yPgEDa0caP
Quants, Commodities and Long Vol Outperformed Amid Macro Reversal
This week: March showed how fast macro can turn. Crowded trades unraveled, discretionary funds were hit and the winners came from a very different mix: quants, commodities and long vol https://t.co/mab8WrSfpa via @LinkedIn
Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage, Economic Risk
Europe is running out of jet fuel Shortages loom in weeks if Hormuz stays constrained Diesel is the hemoglobin of the economy so Europe will be on economic life support soon https://t.co/52nJDPZ2vH #Energy #OilMarkets #Aviation #Geopolitics
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
Hassett Predicts Two‑month Strait Reopening, Supply Chain Implications Questioned
Hassett: Strait can be opened in two months. Really. Based on what? Is the Strait back to open transit? Or controlled by Iran? The impact on supply chains of even this time frame?
U.S. Hormuz Setback Signals Shift to Asymmetric Disruption
The U.S. failure to secure Hormuz is a turning point in American hegemony, argues @StevenErlanger Maybe But he frames the outcome as POLICY FAILURE when it’s really a SYSTEM CONSTRAINT The real turning point is the shift from conventional dominance to asymmetric...
USTR Calls Chinese Vehicle Data Ban Short‑sighted, Unnecessary
USTR's Greer sees no changes in data rules that bar Chinese vehicles from US A short-sighted policy not driven by actual data security concerns, all of which are manageable... https://t.co/wyITSMvYtq
OPEC+ Supply Chains Crippled, US Fuels Global Allies
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
Brazil Real Surges as Markets Sense Ukraine De‑escalation
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
US Tariffs Redefined Trade Landscape After One Year
"One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape" https://t.co/F70zDJrgV9 Good review from RBC: https://t.co/fdH0ifQhk3
Fed Fooled World Into Ignoring 4% Inflation
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
Oil Price Dip Signals Early Global Economic Slowdown
Given the world's dependence on fossil fuels, I would encourage you to look at this as the heart-rate monitor for the global economy, pulled forward by a few weeks. https://t.co/Q4PWG7rSWB
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
Trump Pushes Hormuz Reopening Before US‑Iran Peace Talks
Trump Demands Reopening of Hormuz Ahead of US-Iran Peace Talks. Demands and threats by the two key parties vs resolution. https://t.co/oul6jwCk4x
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
Bullish Outlook: Positioning vs Seven-Day S&P Rally
When I ask others for the bull case from here in stocks, by far the most common answer is positioning and CTA buying. I have trouble squaring that idea with the fact that the S&P 500 is up 7 days in...
March CPI Spikes to 3.3%, Fed Cut Odds Zero
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
US Core Inflation Jumps to 3.3% Amid Iran War
Latest. Inflasi Mac 2026 US: Spiked to 3.3%, tertinggi hampir 2 tahun (Feb: 2.4%). Kenaikkan di sebab perang US-Iran driving up energy cost. Possibly no rate cut US in 2026 jika trend crude oil dan perang berterusan. “Figures came in line...
Core Inflation Stable, Yet Energy Shock Drives Airfare Surge
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for...
Energy Spikes Lift CPI 0.9%; Core Steadies at 0.2%
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
Fuel Oil Soars 44%, Used Cars Slip 3%
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
EU Delays China Strategy Amid Iran Crisis Urgency
China sidelined: EU shelves rare strategy debate as Iran crisis takes priority Taken together, officials say, the risk is that Europe confronts China’s industrial challenge with fragmented tools, without political alignment needed to act. Board of Trade? https://t.co/XG9G3bzpxw
Control of Hormuz Strait Determines Global Power Balance
Already both the U.S. and Iran are claiming to have won the war and are negotiating about the negotiations. As explained in my recent note, it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which will have big implications...
India Postpones Coal Plant Upkeep Amid LNG Shortage
India is delaying maintenance on its coal power plants because of a gas supply crunch 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India’s LNG imports have dropped because of the war in the Middle East And with hot summer weather coming fast, India needs more coal...
March Inflation Hits 3.3% as Energy Prices Surge
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
UK Solar Startup Attracts China, US Interest
The British Solar Startup Being Courted by Both China and the U.S. - WSJ https://t.co/sX60BYn0kE
Trump Abandons Aggressive China Playbook, White House Reverses
Trump Quietly Scraps His Own Playbook on China The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, in a dramatic reversal Times change, leverage changes... https://t.co/emValbLeko via @WSJ