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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT TO DUMP THE SANCTIONS. https://t.co/A4hrDlFKmT
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
In the space of one week, we've gone from everyone saying oil prices would barely move to now everyone falling over themselves predicting $100 oil. Whatever. I don't think that's where the trade is. The trade is in the Dollar,...
In trade-weighted terms, the Yen is lower now than mid-2024 when Japan intervened to prop it up. Japan's high public debt is a terrible weakness. When unexpected shocks come along - like war in Iran - its hands are tied...
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
Singapore Airlines has cancelled all flights to and from Singapore-Dubai until 15 March 2026 due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless attacks originate from there, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says. What does this mean? — This could be the first sign of de-escalation in the one-week-old war. — Time will tell if Pezeshkian was actually speaking...
MASSIVE: Polymarket traders expect US forces to enter Iran before the end of the year. https://t.co/2rC7Fs38kh
🚨 WEEK 2 OF THE IRAN WAR — MARKET OUTLOOK Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social. No ceasefire. No off-ramp. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in futures trading HISTORY (+35%). And the...
Countries that have adopted electric vehicles the most aggressively will suffer the least from oil price spikes. The US, of course, is not one of those. [Corrected graph.] https://t.co/jl1blEELO0
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
Nvidia ties CEO Huang’s $4M bonus to FY2027 revenue milestones. Macro: AI-driven revenue surge. Key factors: record FY26 sales, China export limits, TSMC shift to Vera Rubin. Risk: geopolitical export curbs. Trading insight: accumulate NVDA on meaningful pullbacks. — Viktor...
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
There are measurement issues, and they go both ways. But what is really important for this lying hunk of shit is that whatever problems raise the measured rate of inflation now were also there UNDER Biden. Which means Trump got...
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot. The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing https://t.co/MX3qqP698c https://t.co/slvC9NEfqW
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH...
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
In the latest Fox News poll TRUMP IS TANKING. His disapproval rating on the cost of living is 67% and 63% disapprove of his tariff policies. THE TARIFF MAN = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/cPG2lx1syb
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, with a Muslim population of over 240 million, has suspended all discussions on the proposed Board of Peace. Leading Indonesian Muslim groups have called for an exit from the Board and an end to the...
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI...
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
China providing money to 168 ports in 90 countries. Add the very large Chinese Cosco shipping firm. China and control of global trade and international logistics. The silent trade war.
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
Another horrendous jobs report saved mortgage rates today. Had it come in hot, we'd likely have a 30-year fixed closer to 6.25% again during peak home buying season. Granted, w/o the conflict in Iran we'd probably be at 5.875% or lower...
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Certainly less of a "shit yourself due to volatility" vibe to the equity basket than the commodity so far. https://t.co/jjg4da39Sf
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
