Russian Tanker Heads to Iran as Only Regional Oil Exporter
A Russian VLCC crossed the Strait of Hormuz heading to Kharg Island to load Iranian oil. Here you have a war against Iran and Iran is currently the only country in the region actively exporting oil on a daily basis — and the only one receiving empty tankers to carry its oil. Trump has already lifted sanctions on Iranian oil on water and the tankers carrying it! 🤔 Map form @Kpler
Discussing Strait of Hormuz on CNN with Laura Coates
My appearance last night on @CNN with @thelauracoates talking about the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/8c9CNwMekq
Live at 11 Am: Inflation, Ceasefire, Gold Safe Haven
I'm doing my customary weekend livestream today at 11 am because I'm on the road tomorrow. I'll be talking about US inflation, the ceasefire and if it will hold and whether gold is still a safe haven asset. Come join...
Partnering with Iran Taints Business and Hinders Sanctions Relief
Ed makes the key point concerning tolls. Once you get in bed with Iran, you are doing business with a sanctioned government and whatever you do after is tainted. It will be difficult to conduct business with anyone else. This...
IMF Graphic Reveals Iran War’s Massive LNG Impact
😬Known info but still a stunning #IranWar #LNG graphic via the IMF's wider analysis of the war's impact. Link in next post. https://t.co/KokCb7gPBa
US Deals Useless if It Can’t Control Israel
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on the validity of any deal with the US: "If the US cannot control Israel, then what is the value of a deal with the US? Israel will restart the war and the...
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
Iran’s Pipeline Strike Turns Chokepoint Into Pricing Leverage
Iran didn’t just hit barrels—it hit the workaround. ~700K bpd knocked out of the Saudi bypass pipeline and ~600K bpd off production Both flow and supply are under pressure. That’s how chokepoints turn into pricing power. https://t.co/8MpkdDc8Q3 #Oil #Energy #Hormuz
Iran Ceasefire Won't Solve Global Energy Crisis
@Rory_Johnston explains why the Iran ceasefire hasn't ended the global energy crisis, and what likely comes next on Shift Key with @robinsonmeyer. https://t.co/XDyvPxc4wn
Final GDP Numbers Signal Troubling Economic Outlook
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
G10 FX Consolidates Amid US CPI, Canada Jobs, Geopolitical Tension
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
World Trade Organization, Globalization’s Cornerstone, Collapses
A cornerstone of modern globalization, the World Trade Organization (WTO), is collapsing. Following the Cold War, the post-WWII system needed a legal system to enforce trade rules, so the WTO was born. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/NyZga6gg0S https://t.co/o16DadJrPq
CBAM Targets Half of EU ETS Emissions
CBAM currently applies to sectors such as cement, steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen, and certain intermediate products. Together, these sectors account for approximately 50% of emissions covered under the EU Emissions Trading System https://t.co/qKRttXlmeE
Governments Reassess Corporate Taxes Amid Global Minimum Tax
Governments across the world are reconsidering corporate tax rates in the wake of the OECD’s global minimum tax agreement, fiscal pressures following the pandemic, and increasing concerns about tax avoidance and profit shifting. https://t.co/JGQwYAIYmC
EU and US Near Deal to Counter Chinese Mineral Dominance
EU and US near critical minerals deal to combat Chinese control https://t.co/9Sfd9SN3G1 via @AlbertoNardelli @JoeDeaux https://t.co/t2pPn5nVtw
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Seeking the Next China: High‑Upside Emerging Market ETFs
Hey @grok What emerging market or country ETF today feels like buying China in 2003 that most likely has a massive multi-year upside?
Iran's Economic Leverage Undermines US‑Israeli Tactical Wins
Iran controls the arteries of the global economy US-Israeli tactical wins haven’t translated into strategy. The regime stands, capabilities intact. Operational success without strategic gain is failure by another name. #Geopolitics #Energy #Strategy
Iran’s Economy Stable, Mirroring Australia’s Growth Despite Media Claims
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
Australia Steps in to Fill Singapore's LNG Gap
An example of how Australia is using its LNG cloud to secure fuel 👇 Singapore guaranteed fuel supplies, like diesel, to Australia during leaders summit Qatar was Singapore's top LNG supplier, but those shipments have stopped due to the war. Australia can...
Weak Loan Demand Drives Repo Rate to Three-Year Low
Bloomberg reports that weak loan demand has driven the overnight repo rate to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBoC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The spread suggests that banks are flush with...
Spain’s PM Pushes Chinese Firms to Share Tech Expertise
1/3 Bloomberg: "Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations." https://t.co/rdKXynb2L7
Tariffs Push Inflation Up, Cut Fiscal Revenues
Remember tariffs? They are the main reason inflation remains above target, having added 0.8% to goods inflation. They are fuelling fragmentation and supply chain pressure. Oh, and fiscal revenues are running 25% below projections, and falling. Other than that, tariffs are great....
Iran Now Controls Hormuz, Disaster Looming
Hate to beat a dead horse but Iran didn’t control Hormuz on February 27 but they do now. This is a disaster of epic proportions with no apparent end in sight and the worst effects yet to come
Oil Shock Exposes Fragile Global Fiscal Buffers, Says IMF Chief
IMF chief says the oil shock tests a world with little fiscal buffer https://t.co/AVPFNRJb5I via @jdorosario https://t.co/bV6T4JCGWB
Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Germany's Social Burden Swells, Memorial Day Delayed
Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term...
Rising Energy Prices Trigger Systemic Cost‑of‑Living Surge
This isn’t just about oil. It’s a shift in the entire system. Energy → food → cost of living When energy moves structurally higher, everything built on top of it follows. That means: Higher food prices More pressure on households Less margin for error And a move away...
Sánchez to Demand China's Tech Secrets in Beijing
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
China's Sulphuric Acid Export Ban Boosts Copper Prices
Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported will be able...
Pakistan's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Rate, Fueling Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
Oil Prices Jump $1 as Hormuz Traffic Stalls
Oil Prices Rise $1 Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices advanced by $1 per barrel as traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains nearly halted, impacting global oil supply chains.
Global Rates Climb After Latest Trump Shock
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
Goldman: 10% Gas Price Rise Boosts Inflation
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
Gold Overtakes Treasuries in Central Bank Reserves
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
ECB Cuts QE by Half, Sheds €66B in March
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
Six‑Month Core PCE Inflation Hits Biggest Rise Since June
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
China’s Lending Prioritizes Short‑Term Demand Over Viability
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
China Touts Domestic Demand, yet Auto Sales Slump
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9
China Fills Infrastructure Gap, yet Cuts Sovereign Loans
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
Middle East Energy Shock Ends China’s Deflation, Prices Rise
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak—Factory-gate prices rise in China for the first time in over three years @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5 https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5
Trump Claims Oil Will Flow Quickly, with or without Iran
Oil will start flowing "very quickly" with or without the help of Iran, says Trump. Surely, that means within the ceasefire period? If yes, it has to be WITH the help of Iran. https://t.co/zTuohSKNV8
Stocks Rise on War De‑escalation Hopes Amid Rising Inflation
Stocks are rallying on the bet the war will cool off. But inflation was already heating up before the conflict started, and now there's an energy shock on top of tariffs. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/68iJ07VMQU
Iran's Tollbooth Threatens War Resolution, Gulf Balks
“I don’t think this war can end if Iran is still running the ‘tollbooth’,” said Ellen R. Wald, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre... She said that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and other...
U.S. Shifts From Trump’s China Hardline to Conciliatory Policy
Trump Once Talked Tough With China. Now He’s Playing Nice. The administration has quietly scrapped its previous playbook, adopting a more conciliatory approach to Beijing @heathersomervil @alexbward @GavinBade https://t.co/9teV50Qwnb https://t.co/9teV50Qwnb
Tariffs Account for Full Core Goods Inflation, Adding 0.8%
Will just say, this is about 3x the 0.3pp estimate that some Fed officials, including Gov Waller, had in the summer of 2025.
Renewables Shift, Not Eliminate, Energy Risk
Renewables don’t solve oil shocks, says @JasonBordoff They rewire the dependencies. Less oil means more minerals—and supply chains that run through China. And the economy's heavy lifting—mining & global transport—runs on fossil fuels not electricity You don't escape energy risk
Energy Shock Drives Rapid Borrowing Cost Surge in Africa, Asia
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...