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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
What if the job postings theme was more of a macro story than an AI one and now that the economy is re-accelerating so are job openings?
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
U.S. semiconductor manufacturers are feeling the pinch from Chinese restrictions on scandium exports, @Reuters reports, underscoring the importance of @SunriseMetals’ Syerston Scandium Project as an essential supplier to key U.S. industries. “U.S. chipmakers have experienced delays in receiving new scandium export licenses from...
Lower tariff by US on Chinese goods. What will it mean to import supply chains? And to logistics? Especially container lines? A lot? Or not? Given soft CNY. @Lingling_Wei
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Below is the AI-assisted summary of today's Spaces discussion on Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street and the wider questions it invites about the murky behind-the-scenes mechanics of how ETFs function. It also touches on the wider conflicts of interest that...
Foreign direct investment into Canada jumped Q4, pushing yearly inflows to the highest level in 18 years. FDI totaled C$25.1 billion Oct-Dec, Statistics Canada reported, bringing the yearly sum to C$96.8 billion, the highest since 2007. https://t.co/yORmpTnnkH
Is Russia exporting more oil now that it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war? Contrary to Western propaganda, the answer is YES. Russian crude export volumes are 6% above pre-invasion levels. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/pElmHdXmbQ
In 2025, global debt surged by almost $29 TRILLION. Who are the culprits? According to the Institute of International Finance, they are AI AND DEFENSE SPENDING. https://t.co/R4ISyieJwn
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
New CEPR paper looks at the economics of tariffs. Says "while tariffs can redistribute income between domestic winners and losers from trade, more efficient redistributive instruments typically exist." Not sure I agree, but I did like this chart. https://t.co/PCMMEJY9dc https://t.co/PWFT8xomhM
Big win for STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. After the Supreme Court ruled most of Trump's tariffs unlawful last Friday, the biggest “winners” were countries that NEVER SIGNED ANYTHING, like Brazil China and India. https://t.co/V1MJQK07Ip
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
Since the US session has opened : Gold : higher Oil : Higher Vix : Higher Indices : Lower Talks between Iranian & US officials are not going that well so far & markets are clearly reacting to that. I am short on SPX (small risk...
The hypocrisy of cutting off a Swiss Bank for facilitating payments to Iran and Russia, while the administration pardons CZ & family does business with Binance... https://t.co/p2PfBgrfDs
March 9 will be the 250th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations. How would Adam Smith judge our economy today? We discuss it with @Jesse_Norman, author of Adam Smith, Father of Economics, and British MP. https://t.co/Y5fN0vHIkk
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Yesterday, the US Treasury said it would authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. But it remains UNCLEAR how or will this work. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS. https://t.co/PLsrYShRGo
On February 3rd, I revised my gold forecast from $6,000 to $6,000-7,000 per ounce. JP Morgan just revised its end-of-year gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Hi3nzEv5w2
Those importers who sold their tariff claims to Lutnick’s sons were only paid 20-30 cents on the dollar. Getting into the trade early? Are real importers concerned about getting refunds? Why? Dragging it out?
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
Delighted to have a comprehensive discussion with @EUCouncil President António Costa @eucopresident in Brussels on global energy markets & European energy security – with a focus on the competitiveness of European industry & the importance of electricity affordability https://t.co/ixYMCcBHPY
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
Your dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power over the past 30 years. That’s not an anomaly. That’s the system. Inflation isn’t just a number - it’s a silent thief. Invest in real assets, or watch your money evaporate. https://t.co/vTylWHpPhj
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
If you are an importer, what % discount would you accept to get paid the full amount on your tariff refunds right now with 100% certainty and you keep the money even if there are no refunds.
In, South Africa, one in three people are OUT OF WORK. No wonder its economy has STAGNATED. https://t.co/8TbCpugNqS
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
There’s a lot of heated views about the Jane Street Terraform story. Those who say “nothing to see here” and no big market maker conspiracy. And those who think something very untoward has been happening for ages. I think both...
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
