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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
China warns about US trade probe. And tariffs. Will there be another trade war? And what then for supply chains?
I imagine no one in Ottawa is in a great rush given the tariff chaos post Supreme Court ruling and the great deal Canada is getting right now -literally the lowest effective tariff rate in the world (possibly by accident...
USTR: Courts will tell about tariff refunds. US collected the tariffs. Why are they not stepping up on refunds?
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
After the Tariff Blizzard, Are You Ready for the Next Storm? - https://t.co/syg5yLFZmi @joinindago #TrumpTariffs #IEEPA #SupremeCourt #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics #tradecompliance
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
I can't remember--who was the president 10 years ago? That Administration's decision to grant permits for LNG exports was a boon for the domestic O&G industry while also helping U.S. and European security by reducing dependence on Russian energy exports.
Also, it's nice to see the Treasury Secretary openly admit the new Section 301 investigations will be reverse-engineered to justify new tariffs. Not even a hint that the investigation might go negative. It's all just a pretext. https://t.co/HDwm3f4gpE https://t.co/U1olE8kLdE
The US has 3,960 data centers, more than the next 14 countries COMBINED. MASSIVE capital buildout. MASSIVE electricity demand. https://t.co/2CnR0GW60v
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by over 50% against the USD in the past year. KIM JONG UN'S ANTICS = CURRENCY CATASTROPHE. https://t.co/mODtL8ocdu
I wrote a short blog on the future of the UK’s Single Trade Window on the back of last week’s FT article co-authored by @pmdfoster /1 https://t.co/b4rmt3AXzu
The 2026 Gold Rush Risks a 2025 Bitcoin-Like Bust - At almost 3x, gold has never sustained a greater stretch vs. its 120-month moving average with inflation so low. The graphic highlights a historic oxymoron for the traditional haven: its...
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
The Yen is heading back to where it was before the "rate check" from the NY Fed. Intervention doesn't work, especially when the underlying issue is a massive debt overhang and politicians who prefer denial to taking hard, but needed...
Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs: The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn...
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
The main development today is the reaction to the two dovish nominations to the BOJ board. The yen and JGBs have been sold, while Japanese stocks raced to record highs. Note there are many large option FX...
"Mine is bigger than yours" "Mine is better than yours" "My Central Bank appointee is more dovish than yours" says Japan PM #Takaichi to #Trump after she picked 2 #reflationist candidates #forex $USDJPY #USDJPY
Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her term ends, paving the way for Klaas Knot to succeed her as president, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/rjUbI1zZMG via @jrandow https://t.co/aOgFWMclPG
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T
so Japanese markets suffered deflation for decades at the hands of a dovish BoJ... and the markets have had a historic rally on the back of rising rates and yet somehow the market thinks dovish BoJ nominations is bullish... got it
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
U.S. shale + SPR barrels & China’s vast stockpiles will offset Iran oil disruptions, writes @ronbousso1 But shale doesn't surge on command & stockpiles are a short-lived buffer The most likely shock absorbers are a limited Iran conflict & China stepping...
The history of home prices when rates ranged from 2.75% to 18% during this period. https://t.co/I0aE7X40Jt
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
From which countries did the US import solar panels in 2025? #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/50iShtuhwp
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
