OPEC+ Poised to Lift Quotas as Hormuz Reopens
OPEC+ eight members meet tomorrow, with an unprecedented situation in the oil market. They will likely consider a quota increase that would signal readiness to raise output once tankers are able to transit the Strait of Hormuz sources say. https://t.co/ppX8SdbsiJ
Asian Nations Revert to Coal as LNG Prices Soar
Asian economies are abandoning Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and PIVOTING BACK to coal. Since Feb. 28, the FT reports gas prices are up 60%, while coal prices are only up by 17%. https://t.co/FefK5JR7MN
ECB's Next Meeting: Possible Rate Hike or Hold
Sleijpen says next ECB discussion will be a rate hike or hold https://t.co/nsySCHZ2Ld via @patrickreports https://t.co/QVU1clfZB5
Iran's Industrial Self‑sufficiency Targeted by US‑Israel Bombings
The Gulf states ruled by family dictatorships are mostly Gas Stations… their economies are heavily reliant on oil/gas. Iran is HEAVILY industrialised & self sufficient in most things. The US-Israel are bombing the industrial hubs in Iran… Cruel.. https://t.co/3vRM1Nt7XG
Iran Declares Iraq Exempt From Hormuz Restrictions
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
Mearsheimer: Trump's Advisers Prioritize Israel over Iran Peace
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Trump's foreign emissaries: "Trump's principal advisers are both ardent Zionists. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are deeply committed to Israel. They were not interested in working out a deal with the Iranians to avoid a...
Iran’s Island Chain Secures Strait of Hormuz Dominance
"The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz." Good analysis @WSJ https://t.co/Bq6iyg2c3C
Jones Act Tankers Shield Gas Prices From Market Volatility
Example #1 why the JONES ACT worke by providing long-term fixed rate tankers on dedicated service. What would gas prices be today if 55 Jones Act tankers were not in service but we had to compete for MR tankers on...
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
California Gas Prices Surge, Hitting Coastal Residents Hard
If this gives us sticker shock here — and it does — we have to spare a thought for those on the California coast. #energy #gas #inflation #economy #markets
Trump’s Bold Claims Ignored by Iran’s Actual Strike
Just a few weeks before a US aircraft was shot down in Iran, President Trump had this to say: “We literally have planes flying over Tehran... They [Iran] can't do a thing about it." TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARLEY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/UVqGJAzX2e
Delayed Sanctions Squandered Cooperation, Worsened War Costs
In a war of choice, these dynamics were foreseeable. With enough preparation ahead of time, the admin could have at least mitigated the costs and tradeoffs for other countries (and get more cooperation as a result). Instead, they’ve lifted sanctions during...
Pakistan to Settle $2 B UAE Loan by Month‑end
Pakistan will repay a $2 billion loan to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by the end of this month, a media report said on Friday.
Services Now Claim 70% of Consumer Spending
Since 1959, consumption of services has grown from 45% of total spend to 69% today; the share of spending related to nondurable goods has been more than halved, from 41% to 20% today. https://t.co/3ZxEaKRIB5
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports Amid Tight Supply
This is a major signal shift: India a top global importer is openly buying Iranian oil again When supply tightens, politics gives way to reality. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Geopolitics
Shipping Squeeze: Tanker Rates Surge Amid Iran War
OUT NOW - @ed_fin on historic squeeze in shipping: -Why tanker rates soar 2-10x+ on Iran War🛢️ -Strait re-opening = "feeding frenzy"; if not "crisis"⚓️ -Routes/vessels/stocks best poised 🚢 Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 https://t.co/3ZLXMZR8p2
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
March Jobs Report Hides Drop in Total Hours
An overlooked aspect of the March jobs report: total hours worked actually fell in the month https://t.co/ZdEGUdFNjX
EU‑US Alliance Crumbling Before Our Eyes
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Meloni Heads to Doha to Secure Gulf Energy Ties
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Doha Saturday as part of a 2-day diplomatic charm offensive meant to shore up ties with the Gulf and bolster energy supplies hit by the war in Iran https://t.co/qFF0IY3avN via @donatopmancini @ssirletti https://t.co/r8GavWDRH6
Trump Misreads Oil Markets: Global Pricing Overrides Independence
Trump thinks US energy independence protects Americans from Gulf shocks. But he FAILS TO SEE that global markets are pricing all barrels the same. TRUMP = CLEARLY DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS FOR OIL. https://t.co/tp5LhHAisM
Europe Sees No Military Fix for Hormuz Crisis
Europe sees no military fix for Hormuz, says @BBC “No upside” to joining the war. The Gulf wants it to continue—until flows resume. Same crisis. Completely different incentives. #Oil #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis
Oil Ignites Inflation, Spreading Like an Uncontrollable Fire
Oil is the spark, but inflation is the fire. And once it spreads, it’s much harder to contain. https://t.co/U5hKXq9zFE
U.S. Intel: Iran Unlikely to Reopen Hormuz, Oil Leverage
U.S. Intel Warns Iran Has No Incentive to Reopen Hormuz as Oil Leverage Grows. Economic vs military advantage. Can and how can Iran’s grasp be stopped? Will there be a protracted military operation? As supply and supply chains struggle. ...
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Sanctions Eased
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
First Ships Navigate Hormuz, Redefining Global Shipping Risks
Controlled Passage: First Ships Edge Through Hormuz as Crisis Redefines Global Shipping. Iran vs UNCLOS. Shipping cost and war risk insurance vs value of cargo. Supply chain chaos. Supply shortages and impact—macro and micro. https://t.co/NYGVyblHEB
Zero Job Growth Seen as Full Employment, Yet Fragile
22,500 jobs a month would have set off alarms two years ago. Today it might be fine. Fed officials are still grappling with how to explain that. “Conveying that a zero-job-growth economy is consistent with full employment is not easy,”...
Energy Crisis Could Spill Into Broader Economy, Warns ECB's Radev
ECB’s Radev says the energy crisis may spread to the wider economy https://t.co/3xVWeBrdqt via @GoodOldSlav https://t.co/xy7r5rcfIa
Germany Leads EU Push to Tax Energy Windfall Profits
Germany among states pushing the EU to tax energy windfall profits https://t.co/ik4V4nYwqA via @iaindrogers https://t.co/zhu4LTgKRe
Manufacturers Flood ISM Surveys with Negative Tariff Criticism
"Since Mr Trump took charge, most of the comments from manufacturers that ISM has published along with its surveys have mentioned tariffs. Not one has been positive. Many of the unpublished ones are more forceful still." https://t.co/CPYmAXhPEP https://t.co/01lBtbBHB6
South Africa's Tax Receipts Outpace GDP Growth
Hold on guys, do the math here: For the full year 2025, South Africa's real GDP growth rate was 1.1%. The nominal GDP grew by around 4%, reaching a total value of +-R7.6 trillion But, PAYE collections grew R59.9 billion more than the...
Canada Seeks to Grow Financial Services in China
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
Iran's Conventional Strength Forces Global Trade Reset
I wrote this at the beginning of the war. I don't like to predict things, but it appears that the initial probabilities I'd spoken of have kinda sorta come about. The war will continue, but now there is an attempt...
Turkey's Gold Reserves Fall to Defend Lira Peg
There's 3 central banks that publish weekly data on FX reserves and gold holdings: India, Thailand and Turkey. Only Turkey has seen a sustained drop in gold holdings (blue) that have been used to lift FX reserves and defend the...
Live: Oil Prices, Weak Dollar, Central Bank Gold Sales
I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) to talk through: (i) the different oil prices floating around and how they all fit together; (ii) how the Dollar is trading weak, with yesterday's payrolls another example; (iii) central...
Global Markets Eye War, CPI Data, and RBI Caps
Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not...
Sixth Week of Hormuz War Sparks Oil Demand Destruction
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Yet Trigger Recessionary Pullback
𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 The reporter, David Lin, asks his guest "𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 (𝗙𝗲𝗱) 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? His guest, Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group states that "oil cuts both ways in terms...
Tariffs Became Missiles, Sparking a Trade World War
The World War Trade 🎙️ podcast is up! 👉"If tariffs were missiles, the whole world would know that a world war started on April 2, 2025. That is the day Donald Trump launched tariffs against almost every nation in the world." 👉"Hours later, China put...
Germany’s Global GDP Share Slipping to 4% by 2030
Good Morning from Germany, a country whose influence on the world stage is fading. Its share of global GDP is expected to fall to 4% by 2030. https://t.co/Y1dVwTJYJC
Strait of Hormuz Now Central as Vulnerabilities Rise
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
Top Developers' Sales Drop 23%, Existing Market Revives
Caixin: "Sales by China’s top 100 real estate developers plunged roughly 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The prolonged slump in new home sales contrasts with a nascent rebound in the existing home market of major cities like...
Bank of Italy Slashes Growth Outlook to 0.5%
Bank of Italy cuts growth forecast to 0.5% this year and next https://t.co/2uTKPU1ZMk via @Alemrome https://t.co/dT7DsBhjh4
US Services Slip, Jobs Surge; India Manufacturing Hits 4‑year Low
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026, signaling first contraction in over three years. ⦿ S&P Global US Composite PMI revised to 50.3 in March 2026, lowest since September 2023. ⦿ US economy added...
US Intel Says Iran Will Maintain Hormuz Chokehold
Exclusive: US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say https://t.co/s0QE23T6Eu
Pakistan's Fuel Prices Surge Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, Pakistan is entering TROUBLED ECONOMIC WATERS. The price per litre of petrol is up 42.7% and diesel 54.9%. PAK = SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/iSttCgOOSF
Hormuz Shutdown Tests Global Supply Resilience, Not Just Prices
A prolonged Hormuz closure is not mainly about whether wealthy countries can tolerate higher prices. It is about how long the global system can keep functioning before shortages begin to appear. https://t.co/ZnTkdfQu09
Staggered Shocks Compound without Circuit Breaker
This unfolds in stages, writes @elerianm First energy and rates, then broader cost-of-living pressure, and then slower growth with rising financial instability. This isn’t a one-round shock. Without a circuit breaker, the damage compounds. #Economy #EnergyCrisis #Inflation #Geopolitics
U.S. Energy Dominance Myth: Still Tied to Gulf
US "energy dominance" was a slogan that doesn't fit reality Global energy markets—and the structure of oil flows—bind the U.S. to the Gulf. The U.S. can’t walk away from Hormuz—even if it wants to. https://t.co/K7rntZRxBf #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Hormuz
Russia's Ammonium Nitrate Export Halt Shocks Supply Chain
This matters—but it’s 11 days old @gaurav_kochar @KellyAlspals Russia halted ammonium nitrate exports (≈40% of global trade). That shock is already moving through the system. If you’re just seeing it now, you’re late. #Commodities #SupplyChain #EnergyCrisis