Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
It’s official: The current world order has broken down. In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers. How Stage 6 works is explained in detail in Chapter 6, “The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder,” in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. If you can, I think it would be worth your time to read.
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
“President Vladimir V. Putin believes he is winning, military and intelligence officials from several Western countries said in recent days. And he is convinced that even if it takes 18 months to two years to complete his hold on the...
US investors are gloomy on France as Macron era approaches its end https://t.co/a4q0NEuH3I via @WHorobin https://t.co/vhSuc9Ovr6
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
Empires rise. Empires peak. Empires fall. Medieval thinkers understood the structural forces behind power, decline, and transition. Those same cycles are shaping the world today. Understand the pattern. Know what comes next. Read more at davidmurrin.co.uk #Geopolitics #EmpireCycles #History #Strategy #GlobalPower
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
UK inflation slowed to its weakest level since March 2025, bolstering the case for an interest rate cut when the Bank of England meets next month https://t.co/yJqzpiJ61p via @irinaanghel12 @PhilAldrick https://t.co/a5Mov7Jkhv
Tariffs caused just a small China trade diversion, ECB study shows https://t.co/2xTwmZXdG6 via @weberalexander https://t.co/NfggkusEyQ
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
Russia: bombs Ukraine, damages an oil pipeline to Europe. The collaborator regimes in Hungary and Slovakia: banning diesel shipments to Ukraine because Russia damaged the pipeline. The level of inhuman grotesque borders on stupid comedy.
Very good meeting with 🇺🇸 US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy & Business Affairs @CalebOrr__ We discussed developments in global energy markets, the importance of critical minerals for energy & economic security and energy’s role in boosting competitiveness https://t.co/Z4YDq3jEJG
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +50.50 (0.20%) 25,760.50 DowJones +32.26 (+0.07%) 49,533.19 Nasdaq +31.71 (+0.14%) 22,578.38 India Vix -0.6600 (-4.95%) 12.6700 S&P 500 +7.05 (+0.10%) 6,843.22
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
Tehran will trade limited, face-saving concessions because it thinks it can survive bombs better than it can survive a domestic revolt. There will be a “bridge deal” that kicks the can. The real deal comes after US mid-term elections.' https://t.co/8UhDWkB5al #Iran #Israel #US #MiddleEast...
Saudi Arabia’s projected March crude oil shipments to China are set to reach a multi-year high. When it comes to commodities, China is always the elephant in the room. Maybe this is a bullish sign? Stay tuned. https://t.co/d55SdnfvJv
Something caught my eye in the latest 13F filings. The biggest new entrant into IBIT, from a brand new entity, is something called Laurore Ltd. No website. No press. No footprint. The only public information is that the filer's name is...
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
#UKWatch🇬🇧: UK unemployment levels have reached their HIGHEST LEVEL since COVID. Youth unemployment ROSE TO 16.1%. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER’S GOVERNMENT IS FLOUNDERING. https://t.co/4jk4KQ1Q5I
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
Labor market dynamism is the real differentiator. I make sure to stress it in my public talks https://t.co/jO6lNyPm8W
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
"Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz as it held more indirect talks with the US." https://t.co/Ek0ckZEw6N Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuzon Tuesday for live fire drills in a rare show of force as its...
Iran says it has “understanding on principles” with the US That was always the most likely outcome. Trump won't risk higher oil prices into an election cycle, writes @Ole_S_Hansen The oil market correctly judges his hawkish rhetoric as theater. #oil #Brent #Iran #geopolitics...
