Market Down 20% Pre-War, Defying Bleak Expectations
This is, honestly, less than I might've guessed given A) An insane run up at the start of the year. B) Expected to be a very hard-hit economy. In fact, the market had fallen ~20% even before the start of the war in February.
War Fatigue Drives Stock Rally, Dollar Weakness
Stocks up strongly, US Dollar weakens on war exhaustion. Reports that Trump wants to end Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But can the rally last will Oil over $100? Here are my thoughts on it...
Chinese Firms Shift to Vietnam, yet Overall Impact Remains Modest
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
Geopolitical Strikes Push Global Gas Prices Higher
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
Vietnam LNG Project Pivots to Renewables Amid Price Surge
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr
Iran Sets Hormuz Toll, Bans US, Israeli Vessels
Iran’s parliament approved a formal toll and access regime for the Strait of Hormuz but bars vessels linked to the US, Israel and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran from passage. https://t.co/c28zaLYYtE
Eurozone Inflation Surprise: Core Goods and Services Fall
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
Nikkei Slides 13% in a Month, Signaling Slowdown
JAPAN: nice job getting out of this market with the Nikkei down -13.2% in the last month = #Quad3 Slowing https://t.co/ckYlpWSopM
FPIs Smash Record with ₹111,000 Cr March Sell
FPIs sell a record 111,000 cr. in March 2026. That's the highest ever in a single month, eclipsing the Oct 2024 94,000 cr. or so then. https://t.co/FOfZQAttkq
March Market Turmoil: Dollar Rises,
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
Istat Naps When Data Matters Most
Istat falling asleep at the wheel at the one time in the year when their data actually matter ...
German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell 0.6% in February
Expectedly @Hedgeye > German retail sales declined unexpectedly in Feb, dropping 0.6% in real terms compared to Jan, according to preliminary data from Destatis
German Retail Sales Slip Again, VAT Debate Misplaced
Good Morning from Germany, where retail sales unexpectedly fell in February. Sales dropped 0.6% MoM, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% increase. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline. Notably, the weakness came even before the outbreak of...
Supply Boost Beats Demand Subsidies in German Price Control
In a shocking turn of events, German economists discover that govt policy of increasing supply more effective than subsidizing demand at controlling prices.
Zimbabwe's Central Bank Halts M2 Data Since 2025
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Eurozone Inflation Surprise up; Core Falls, Italy Softens
Advance HICP data tracking a slight upside surprise in the EZ headline today, but the core likely fell, and the Italian number should be soft as the wild jump in services inflation in February, Winter Olympics, reverse.
Helium Shortage Threatens AI Chip Production Amid Conflict
The AI boom is running into an unexpected constraint. The Iran conflict is disrupting helium supply from Qatar, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing for AI systems. As availability tightens, costs rise and production becomes more fragile. It is a reminder that...
Senegal's Anti-Corruption Promise Shattered by Hidden €650M Debt
Following its 2025 hidden-debt scandal, Senegal tapped €650M in undisclosed borrowing to finance itself. Typical. In 2024, Senegalese Pres. Bassirou Faye ran on an anti-corruption platform. https://t.co/RynjocejJG
Singapore Braces for Higher Power Bills Amid LNG Shortage
Singapore warns of higher power bills for months due to the Middle East conflict 🇸🇬📈 The country was getting half of its LNG from Qatar (which is now shut) "Everyone can play a part by using more energy-efficient appliances and conserving...
Trump Tariffs Cause UK Food Exports to US Slump
UK food exports to US slumped after Trump imposed trade tariffs https://t.co/vsOWUTylXc via @DeutschJill https://t.co/aPoz8tsV0L
India Refuses to Play Go‑Between in US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India's minister of external affairs, S. Jaishankar says India will not be a “go-between country like Pakistan" in the US-Israeli war on Iran. S. JAISHANKAR = A WISE MAN. https://t.co/JFnuxXvlKV
Mixed Inflation Trends Worldwide; India Trims Deficit, Growth Accelerates
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.32% for second session, as Powell noted long-term inflation expectations appear in check. ⦿ RBA minutes: Oil near USD 100/barrel could raise headline CPI to 5% in June quarter, with inflation...
Asia's Coal Prices Surge as Gas Supply Tightens
Asia's coal benchmark is at a 17-month high as Middle East conflict chokes gas supplies 🪨⚠️ Australian Newcastle coal futures for April hit $144.25/ton on Monday (the March contract expired Friday at $135.60) Asian countries are expanding use of coal to cut...
UK's Rigid Economy Risks Worse War Outcome
A lack of economic flexibility dooms the UK to a worse war outcome than its European neighbors, argues @marcusashworth https://t.co/7dZ4ZHPU9h via @opinion https://t.co/Eke35KTZuW
Yield and Oil Moves Signal Shift to Growth Fears
Are we moving from inflation fears to growth fears now ? I don't think so just yet , but well , that's a big possibility. If yields come under pressure with elevated oil prices , it will be your signal that markets...
Russia and Saudi Dominate Bab El‑Mandeb Oil Flows to Asia
Goldman on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Russia accounts for 44% of oil exports via the Strait and Saudi Arabia for 42%, with nearly 90% of total flows going to Asia. https://t.co/Y8kpvJJoaC
India Shifts Fertilizer Imports to Russia, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers sourced in the Gulf. Now, India has pivoted towards Russia. It is locking in long-term deals, to cut its reliance from the Gulf. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING...
Nine India‑bound Energy Ships Stuck at Hormuz
🇮🇳India: 9 India-bound energy vessels — carrying crude oil, LNG, and LPG — remain stranded at or near the Strait of Hormuz, unable to transit https://t.co/IzlRQxYqGH
China PMIs Remain Resilient, Non‑Manufacturing Returns to Growth
China PMIs Signal Resilience as Mideast War Raises Uncertainty—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, also bounced back to growth territory https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
China’s Demand Has Stalled, Not Driven Global Growth
I am a big fan of Chartbook and the collected works of Tooze -- but there is no way to look at China over the last 6 years and conclude that it has been a source of demand for the...
Coupon Supply vs GDP Reveals Misleading Percentage Metrics
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
Feb YoY Trade Data Skewed by Last Year's Weakness
It is always difficult to sort signal from noise in the Chinese data/ trade data, & all the more so in q1. Right now all the February y/y comparisons are distorted by a weak February last year and...
Petrodollar's End Not Immediate, Structure Stressed, Not Broken
This is the end of the petrodollar, writes @ekwufinance No it's not. The security-for-dollars deal is under stress But you don't undo a 36-year financial structure in 36 days. #Oil #Petrodollar #Geopolitics
Trump Demands Iranian Assets Seized to Fund War
What's next? Trump telling UAE he will accept their demands for US to stay in the war only if $500 bn in frozen Iranian assets in Gulf is confiscated and disbursed to US Treasury.... Biden tried it w/frozen Russian assets...
Iran Crisis Could Trigger AI Bubble Burst
The AI bubble may be about to burst from the Iran crisis It depends on cheap energy, fragile supply chains & massive debt The Iran crisis exposes all three This is a potential trigger for a broader financial unwind https://t.co/09tvGAUw7k
Monthly Oil Draw Hits Quarter‑billion Barrels, Chart Dips
According to Gemini this figure is now below the y-axis from @Rory_Johnston's chart. 495 Million barrels so a quarter billion barrel draw in a month https://t.co/PEEyloJs9H
Markets Signal Recession Risk Amid Iran Conflict
Will the Iran war trigger a recession? Price action across global financial markets seems to have come up with the answer. #stockmarket #recession #IranWar #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/Oll4XR3PQa
Trump’s Iran Fatigue May Halt Market Bleed, Futures Rise
Trump getting bored of the Iran "excursion" only thing that will stem the market bleed. Futures up 0.8%
BoE Warns Industrial Policy Can Fuel Harmful Trade Surpluses
The Bank of England continues to be among the few major central banks to warn about the adverse effects of persistent trade imbalances. Although most models used by economists assume that trade is balanced, or is unbalanced only temporarily before...
War on Iran Could Spike Asian LNG Prices 57%
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Goldman Sachs projects that LNG will be 57% more expensive in Asia by 2028. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. Send the bill for damages to Trump and Netanyahu. https://t.co/zGDQ6V7G5Z
China's Manufacturing Growth Hits Yearly Peak
JUST IN: China's manufacturing sector is expanding again at the fastest rate in a year.
Speaker Dismisses Rate Hikes Despite Market Betting Otherwise
Didn’t sound like he’s thinking of interest rate increases as the market was starting to place bets on…
Simple Fixes: End Iran War, Cut Tariffs, Boost Energy
Would be so easy to fix this economy: - accelerate end to Iran war - end all but the most critical tariffs (meaning 99% end) - fund the DHS - Simplify and subsidize US energy infrastructure build out
US‑Israel Conflict Triggers Asian Fertilizer Plant Shutdowns
Negative food consequences continue to unfold from the US/Israel War on Iran. Asian fertilizer plants are shutting in production.
Powell Denies QE's Role in Inflation and Inequality, Lies
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
Strait Closure Spikes Gas Prices, Fuels Global Supply Shortages
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that...
China Says Hormuz Shutdown Will Raise U.S. Prices
“China suppliers warn of higher prices for Americans due to Strait of Hormuz closure”, who writes these headlines at @CNBC 🤣! AI? https://t.co/B3hagjn68P
Tariffs Aren't Numbers to Rewrite; Wars Aren't Simple
Tariffs were made up numbers said out loud. It’s pretty easy to TACO your way out of those. I’m not a rocket scientist, but wars and energy conflicts are not numbers on a posterboard you can just erase and rewrite.
Global Oil Tensions: Hormuz, Australian Shortage, Trump's Tankers
Strait of Hormuz Update 30 March | Is Australia Running Out of Petrol? | Where are Trump's Tankers? Video: https://t.co/4WjNWhP2Hq https://t.co/uqAn5bK21P