US Crude Tops $100, Drags Asia‑Pacific Markets Lower
JUST IN: U.S. crude oil surges past $100 for the first time since 2022, dragging Asia-Pacific markets lower.
NATO’s Threat Split: US vs Europe’s Conflicting Alliances
NATOs core problem is misaligment: USAs enemy is China, but Europa sees China as a partner. Europas enemy is Russia but USA would like to do a reverse Nixon with Russia to weaking the Dragonbear ties. Europa supports Ukraine to fight against Russia...
Iran Conflict Triggers Worldwide Fertilizer Crunch, Hikes Food Prices
The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices https://t.co/xpr9UOnHTZ via @mySA
2026 Real Income Growth Slips to 1.7%, Low-Income Lag
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
Reindustrialization Narrative Misses Capital Markets Role
1/ my new manifesto CAPITAL MARKETS MAXIMALISM There’s a version of the American reindustrialization story that goes like this: China ate our manufacturing base. Supply chains proved fragile. Now we need to build again. That story is true. But it’s incomplete....
Russian Oil Tanker to Cuba Sparks Unanswered Policy Questions
In before times, headlines like these would lead to answers in the article. Under Trump 2.0, they’re just open questions. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/world/americas/russian-oil-tanker-cuba.html
China Trade Talks Loom After Iran War Ends, Tensions Remain
After the Iran war business concludes, we have China trade talks to look forward to. As you know, they have been treating us very poorly.
VIX Spikes only During Historic Crises, Signaling Costly Volatility
There has only been a few times in the past 20 years that the Volatility Index ($VIX) has traded at these levels: • 2008 Global Financial Crises 50+ • Covid-19 crash 50+ • U.S.-Iran Conflict 35+ Think of the VIX as a “fear”...
2026 Global Growth Forecast Slips Further Below Consensus
GS: Our 2026 Global Growth Forecast Has Declined Further Below Consensus After Last Week’s Commodity Price Forecast Upgrades https://t.co/lS1nu7BGIq
Inflation Spikes; Protect Margins with Efficiency
Remember when $5 actually bought a whole burrito? Now it barely covers the “existing in 2026” surcharge. 🌯 Inflation is wild, but your margins shouldn't be a gamble. Stay efficient. #Inflation #2026 #SupplyChain #Wholesale #Business #Economy #Distributor $BTC $ETH https://t.co/bj1A3YSoFH
War Prolongation Could Drive 5% Inflation, No Rate Cuts
More downside coming in the market. If this war continues for another month…expect 5% inflation with rate cuts out of the picture Study 2022
Bank of England Joins Imbalance Club as Asia Surplus Swells
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Global Stocks Experience Biggest Sell‑Off in Nearly a Year
Global stocks saw largest equity selling in almost a year – Goldman Sachs Prime @seekingalpha https://t.co/acrlK2Ws65
Judge Tariffs by President's Promises, Not Hype
Excellent, data-rich thread - and exactly the right way to judge the Liberation Day tariffs (ie, by the President's own standards/promises). THIS is why tariff fans obsess over pre-TACO predictions of Tariff Armageddon & claim "victory" when the worst doesn't...
US Economy Set to Outperform Global Peers in Any War
"While the US will continue to outperform other advanced economies under almost any war scenario..." Bookmark that
10‑Year Yield Breach: Will Geopolitics
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
Rising 10Y Yields and Inflation Pressure Asset Prices
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Trump's Biggest Move: Iran War, No Strategy Disclosed
the most consequential decision of trump’s presidency. war with iran. troops deploying. and the president still hasn't explained the strategy. @gzeromedia
US Can't Punish Iran without Hurting Oil; China May Mediate
What looks irrational is actually desperation @gbrew24 The U.S. can’t both punish Iran for exports & limit greater damage to global oil markets Then there’s China—possibly the only power capable of mediating an off ramp It’s why talk of seizing Kharg is...
War in Middle East Drives Inflation and Slower Growth
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Oil Surge Fuels Bearish Shift Amid Fed Uncertainty
Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until...
ACWI Approaches Worst Monthly Drop Since 2020
The stock market $ACWI is very close to its worst month since March 2020 -9.0% https://t.co/1hZc6AgZRS
Energy Markets Under Pressure: Supply Bottlenecks and Rising Costs
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba...
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Fed Can Pause; War‑Driven Inflation Expected to Fade
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
War and Market Dump Confirm Our Long‑Term Outlook
War sucks. Markets dumping sucks. But this is exactly what we've been preparing for. I still think the markets far away from a full recovery. I shared my macro thoughts late last year; still very relevant today. Worth the read 👇
U.S. Can Cripple Iran’s Oil Lifeline without Occupying Kharg
The U.S. has many more options than to only seize Kharg Island with ground forces. It may be possible to isolate, degrade, or rendered it inoperable without occupation. Kharg is uniquely a center of gravity for the regime’s economic power/survival. It...
Markets Show Capitulation: Yields Drop, USD Rises, Equities Fall
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Rising Mortgage Rates Signal Upcoming Home Price Decline
With each passing day, the mortgage rate lock-in effect fades. Nearly 22% of mortgage holders now have a rate above 6%. Which is more than the share with a rate below 3%. Ultra-low-rate owners are slowly getting replaced with 6%+ owners. Meaning...
Powell Warns: Rapid US Debt Growth Demands Action
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju
UAE Funds $272M Stimulus without Printing Money
🚨 $272 million dollar stimulus plan approved by UAE. Unlike the US, they don’t print money. They also operate at a fiscal surplus.
High‑Yield Spreads Below 400 Signal Market Bounce
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
US Blocks Rare Earth Development, Forces Foreign Dependence
US rug pull on rare earth floors. They didn't even let US supply get built. Looks like the names are getting hit. I wonder where the US gov thinks supply with come from... Brazil? Rely...
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Fuels Global Inflation, Slows Growth
IMF says the Iran war means higher prices, slower growth worldwide https://t.co/xsjyA1lVNX via @jdorosario https://t.co/RqEIMO88cd
US LNG Plant Launches Amid Middle East Supply Crunch
New US LNG export project begins operations 🇺🇸🚢 The Golden Pass plant (a JV with Qatar & Exxon) just started LNG production at 1 of its 3 trains. First export expected from 2Q The world is scrambling for more US LNG as...
Analyzing Global Powers' Stance on Iran Conflict
As always, I had a ton of fun doing my friend and colleague @aarondmiller2's show #CarnegieConnects, especially with my @CarnegieEndow teammates @RosaBalfour and @AlexGabuev. Aaron asked us, how are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet partners, faring in the...
Inflation Tax Hits All Assets, Unbalancing ‘Balanced’ Portfolios
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
Natural Gas Spike Signals Crude Oil Slide to $50
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
Recent Fed Chairs Prioritize Stability, Jobs, Then Inflation
it goes 1) financial stability, 2) unemployment, 3) inflation under the last few Chairs, at least
Reopening Hormuz Won’t End Gulf’s Kill Zone
All the middle east, geopolitics and energy experts keep talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz as if that solves the problem. It doesn’t. The Strait is just the front door. The entire Persian Gulf is now a kill zone. 1/2 https://t.co/ZHp06lZzYS
Numbers Reveal the Real Stakes in Great Power Competition
When it comes to great power competition, it’s always good to look at the numbers. A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/oDxkPFvNS7
Rial Strengthens 9% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
US Dollar Reserve Share Hits 31‑Year Low Amid Diversification
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Fed Chair Must Remain Nonpartisan, Bipartisan Reappointment Essential
A question about the role of the vice chair for supervision led Powell to lay out his philosophy on how a Fed chair should operate more broadly (offered by way of explaining why he didn't want to get too involved...
US Holds $27.5T Net Position, Funding Global Needs
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
Iran War Triggers Global Energy Crisis and Price Shock
The Iran war is now a global energy crisis. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Asia is scrambling for oil/LNG—driving price shocks and geopolitical shifts. I spoke with Abishur Prakash about what comes next. https://youtu.be/lyr9tnT_-yU #EnergyCrisis #IranWar #OilPrices #LNG
Debt Levels Make 1970s Stagflation Comparison Unrealistic
Everyone comparing today to 1970s stagflation is being too optimistic. In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 26%. Today it's 122%. There is no Volcker option when you owe $39 trillion. This isn't stagflation. It's a depression in slow motion. https://t.co/V2YAlnMATp
Powell Unconcerned About Inflation, Signals Hard Assets
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Stagflation Squeezes Equities: Low Returns, High Volatility
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
Stagflation Threat Returns as Euro Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
GS Europe: Stagflation risk re‑enters the debate. We have downgraded GDP growth in 2026 by around 0.7pp in the Euro area We have raised our end-2026 inflation forecast by around 1.4pp in the Euro area https://t.co/E3drISW5P1