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Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
How many years away are we from the third generation of auto bailouts being on the table?
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the…...
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
EU countries’ resistance risks blunting latest Russia sanctions package https://t.co/ck1N8lGobr via @AlbertoNardelli @AfPalasciano @donatopmancini https://t.co/6LWNSkOoNN
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
The EU plans to force 70% of EVs sold in Europe to be built there Good luck requiring China to accept higher labor costs & regulatory burden. Success case: higher EV costs, slower rollout & more trade friction. Good plan https://t.co/rHXHgNgJyN #EU #EVs #industrialpolicy #protectionism...
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...
Peak-demand fear is fading, and now shareholders want growth again. Which do you want? Returns or Growth? Can't have both. People in hell want ice water. https://t.co/NKcPuvbtxE #oil #energy #BigOil #Exxon #Chevron #Shell #BP #TotalEnergies #OPEC #reserves #MAndA #markets #investing #geopolitics
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Balanced take from Bob. While the headline may be different than my "get out" thesis. The meat says the same. Flows suggest marginally weaker dollar and relative underperformance of U.S. stocks vs ROW. Don't panic out...
Wall Street is full of worried bulls. On one hand, investors are telling CEOs they're overinvesting. On the other, investors are feeling the best about the overall backdrop since June 2021, with "no landing" expectations at a record high: February...
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Reässessing the “West” from John Winthrop to Marco Rubio: **From Plato to NATO to MAGA: Marco Rubio’s Myths & the Real "Western Alliance”** 2026-02-16 Mo
🇰🇭#Cambodia's payment infrastructure: Outsourced to overseas vendors, platforms and foreign-owned banks. How to maintain the country's sovereignity?
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
🧐This is nonsense hype from the Center for the Study of Democracy. Yet CNN did not bother to check the validity of their claims or ask other researchers. Here's why: 💥Many European countries, including France, buy LNG from Russia. 💥The US and...
Japan’s nuclear reactors continue to come back online. This is a major positive for consumers, businesses, and the environment, as it increases the supply of cheap energy, and reduces reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. This dynamic should also support the...
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
"Seeing lower inflation is a narrative violation for many people in the digital asset space." @ramahluwalia https://t.co/mCyinRw3Uv
