Jet Fuel Prices Double, Asian Markets Hit Hard
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the war erupted. Fuel prices especially in Asia and especially for jet fuel have risen the fastest and furthest as the region anticipates shortages of fuel-rich medium-density crude from the Middle East and the prolonged interruption of jet fuel exports from Kuwait and other Gulf refineries:
Strait Closure Will Trigger Oil Price Spike, Curb Consumption
“The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation…If the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption – but not before prices spike to a level that forces consumers and businesses...
Governments Cut Energy Taxes, but Economics Suffer
Governments are now pulling the obvious lever that is right in front of them; cutting indirect taxes on energy as the oil price shock filters through strongly and immediately to consumer prices. The economics of this, meanwhile are suboptimal. 1/2
European Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Business Outlook Remains Tame
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
Oil Spike Signals New Unpredictable Global Crisis
To me, the news cycle now resembles that of March 2020, where it feels like we're dealing with an unpredictable threat that will have immense global consequences. That's subjective, though the swing in oil prices provides a data point to back...
West Asia Crisis Keeps Gold and Silver Prices Supported
Geopolitical Cushion: The West Asia crisis, now entering its fifth week, is providing a floor for prices. Investors are holding onto gold and silver as "safe-haven" assets to protect against uncertainty.
GCC Seeks Alternatives as Hormuz Bottleneck Persists
Plenty of analysis of the Gulf's two bypass pipelines - but as Hormuz remains near-shut, what more can the GCC do to avoid the Strait and narrow? https://t.co/6EwDOmaObS @TheNationalNews
War‑Driven Oil Shortage Forces Demand Destruction
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
Turkey’s FM Warns Conflict Could Spark Global War
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned “we are heading toward a greater war.” He called the conflict a fight for Netanyahu’s “political survival”, with consequences that “affect the whole world.” https://t.co/DJNLKRC4xI
Stocks Set to Dive as War Impact Unpriced
Macro economist gone all wild bear mode. Stocks will be raging lower. Why? Market is still not pricing the impact of a prolonged war as the credit spread is gapping. Will share more details today.
Oil Price Surge Drives Markets to Four‑month Low
JUST IN: Markets dropped to a four-month trough as the oil price surge unnerved traders.
Trump Clears Russian Fuel Shipments to Cuba, Easing Blockade
JUST IN: Trump signals no issue with Russian tanker fuel for Cuba, effectively easing the oil blockade.
Trump, Iran Tensions Spike Oil Prices
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
EU‑India Deal Slashes Tariffs, CBAM Remains Intact
The EU-India trade deal cuts tariffs, but CBAM stays unchanged and keeps carbon compliance in focus. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-and-cbam-remain-on.html
Preparation, Not Price, Drives Oil Market Strategy
This was never just about price. While most focus on where oil is trading, the more important question is who prepared for this environment. Stockpiling, reserves, and long-term planning change how pressure is absorbed — and how decisions get made when systems...
Five Months of Negative FDI Highlight India's Red‑Tape Crisis
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Net foreign direct investment (FDI) into India was a NEGATIVE $1.4B in January. That marks 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS of negative flows. INDIA’S MOUNTAIN OF GOVERNMENT RED TAPE = REPELS FDI = BIG PROBLEM.
Trump Inadvertently
One of the ironies of the current war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is that President Trump inadvertently helped GLOBALIZE China’s approach of tightly linking control over energy sources to national energy security. The long-term implications of this development...
Trump Authorizes Russian Oil to Cuba, Ignoring Humanitarian Crisis
This is unreal: Trump just ‘granted permission’ for Russia to deliver oil to Cuba saying “Cuba is finished… whether or not they get a boat of oil…” Trump views 9.7 -11 million people as mere pawns subject to his rule and...
FX Reserve Decline Driven by Oil Importers, Not Exporters
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Taiwan's Final Oil Shipment Sparks China Economic Gambit
Taiwan will be receiving its last shipment of Oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the next couple of days. Over under odds China will try to take advantage of their lack of fuel supply and Trump concentrating military power...
Analyst Doubts Any Ceasefire or Hormuz Opening
"I don't see any possibility of a resolution to this conflict," says @ksadjadpour "We could see a potential ceasefire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, he added I don't see any possibility of that either.
Two Fed Cuts Aren't Enough—Bet on a Different Strategy
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
VIX Spike and S&P Slide Signal Oil Volatility Opportunities
Solid macro analysis from @DNAFunded 📊 That VIX spike + 5-week S&P slide combo is definitely worth watching. Oil volatility could create some interesting opportunities for the prepared trader. Compare all prop firms at https://t.co/pKoy2KGz8x 📈⚡
Asian Markets Lag US, Ideal for Equity Short
Been banging the drum about how much worse this is in Asian economies than US…. Much better place to express an equity short right now
Trump’s Oil Permit Proves US Controls Cuba’s Supply
Trump allowing the Russian oil tanker to reach #Cuba does NOT disprove the US quarantine. It PROVES it. The only oil that will reach Cuba is the oil that the US allows. As I scooped a month ago: the plan is to...
Trump Says Oil to Cuba Okay, Despite Recent Tariff Threats
Trump just said that he has "no problem" if a country wants to send oil to #Cuba right now. May come as a BIG surprise to Mexico and a few other countries -- which were threated with tariffs just TWO months...
X Tweet Bridge Boosts Japan‑US GDP by 3%
HEADLINE NEXT YEAR: The X tweet bridge built between Japan and America added 3% to their combined GDPs
Inflation Swap Forward Gauge Peaks, Now Weakening on Downside Risks
Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle. At the start of the war, the forward measure surged higher along with the current 1-year swap as inflation concerns dominated, but...
US Exports Overall, yet Imports Crude Oil, Says Analyst
My latest with @davidlin_TV on US energy dependence: "If you include all energy products, the US is a net exporter. But if you look at crude oil, the US is a net oil IMPORTER. Forget that we are a net exporter of...
Iran's Resource Crisis Threatens Global Energy and Food Security
We are getting to that point of doom on Iran where X got to on Ukraine. Back then without gas and food we were going to be cholipping frozen, starved, dead Europeans of the streets. This time it's oil, gas,...
Middle East Conflict's Economic Shock Far Larger Than Expected
"Most people don't understand as yet the magnitude of this shock." Of all the issues discussed during this weekend’s many conference calls on the economic and financial consequences of the Middle East conflict, this one sentence stood out the most. It’s a...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Becomes Looming Global Catastrophe
My job is to entertain you most of the time, occasionally quell sensationalist headlines, and so forth. You know, the normal stuff. But each day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed is a growing global catastrophe that people are sleepwalking into. That’s the...
US Woes Pale Compared to Canada and UK Crises
However bad you think things are in the United States, they're worse in Canada and the UK.
Hormuz Closure’s Oil “Air Pocket” Hits Regions Sequentially
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
Energy Shock Could Trigger Demand Collapse, Slowing US Growth
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
Putin Thrives as U.S. Pivots Away From Russia’s Sanctions.
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
Iran's Hormuz Toll Threatens US‑Israel War Strategy
A Hormuz toll run by Iran. Think of the logistics costs and impact. It could be considered a war failure by the US and Israel.
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Energy Soars, Financials Plunge: Stagflation’s Sector Split
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
Analyst Warns Oil Crisis Could Trigger May Economic Collapse
Global economy could collapse by early May: Analyst issues stark warning over oil crisis https://t.co/HeVyeLGS3s
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Trump's Volatile Tariffs Cripple U.S. Industrial Competitiveness
The problem was that Trump put the big tariffs on the upstream inputs that would’ve helped America industry be competitive. With those high tariffs it makes American industry less competitive with imports from the other industrial powers like China Korea,...
Physical Oil Prices Set to Pull Paper Market Up
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
Rising Risks and Low Yields Signal Market Tension
Geopolitical risk is rising. Oil is volatile. Supply chains are under pressure. And high yield spreads sit near historic lows. Something has to give. $JOJO. https://t.co/0h0KmfyB5U
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
S&P 500 Slides
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
Poorest Nations Hit Hard by Iran‑War Energy Crisis
The world's poorest will bear the brunt of the energy crisis caused by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude Prices and S&P 500 Diverge, Highlighting Current Macro Snapshot
the juxtaposition of crude prices (white, Brent) and the S&P 500 (blue) last week is a great snapshot of the current macro moment https://t.co/SUUMhbRJuY
Markets Expect Perfection Amid Chaos, Credit Spreads Low
Tariffs. Trade wars. Geopolitical escalation. And credit spreads are still near historic lows. The market is pricing in perfection during chaos. $JOJO rotates when the signal says it's time.