USD Rebounds After Over‑reaction; Short Positions Risky This Weekend
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants to be short ahead of the unknowns of the weekend? https://t.co/hoqQdhvSoc https://t.co/5hRGp4b6De
Europe’s Structural Gaps Threaten Productivity and Growth
The Draghi & Letta reports' diagnosis was stark: Europe is falling behind in productivity growth; Single Market remains fragmented; capital markets incomplete; innovation & scale financing insufficient. These are structural weaknesses, not cyclical ones. https://t.co/vne95qESQS
UK Yield Peaks 2008 High Amid Rising Oil Prices
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
April ECB Rate Hike Possible if Data Warrants
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
CBDCs Could Undermine Bank Deposits and Credit Creation
By giving households direct access to central bank money in digital form, central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is frequently said to threaten bank deposits, disrupt credit creation, and shift seigniorage from commercial banks to the public sector. https://t.co/B04PPjhu5q
Canada 5‑Year Yield Surges to 14‑Month High
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
ECB Baseline Assumes Two Hikes; Worse Scenarios Need More
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
JPM Predicts Back-to-Back ECB and BOE Rate Hikes
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
US Policy Enables Chinese Firms to Buy Sanctioned Russian Oil
US government policy helps Chinese state owned oil companies buy sanctioned Russian crude wasn't on my prediction list for this year. https://t.co/JFPLk4VSxF
Rates Likely Hike Unless Growth Collapses, Says Sell‑Side
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
US Fuels Chaos to Cripple China AI, Bind Europe
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
EU Faces Prolonged Energy Crunch After Qatar Disruption
EU leaders confront multi-year energy squeeze after Qatar hit https://t.co/VJQeTgB0l1 via @johnainger @E_Krukowska @donatopmancini https://t.co/Res6oTlW0s
Trump’s Chaos Drives Europe to Forge Ties with China
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
Energy Crisis Persists Beyond Iran War Resolution
The global energy crisis will drag on even if the Iran war ends tomorrow: Energy Outlook Advisors https://t.co/xPMnRiP3fO
China's Central Bank Boosts Gold Reserves in February
The People’s Bank of China added another ton of gold to its war chest in February. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/NQFzVWhA4P
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Resilience Disproves Collapse Forecasts; Models Need Revision
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Lifting Iran Sanctions Would Let World Buy Oil, Not Iran
Bessent's suggestion to lift sanctions on Iranian oil is INSANE Congressman Scott Perry explains that the world gets the oil but Iran won't get paid b/c it's outside the global financial system now He's clinically INSANE #Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Markets
Iran-Israel Standoff Threatens Permanent Gulf Security Collapse
Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
Japan, Australia, Brazil Team Up for De‑China Rare Earths
“Japan’s bid to build a “de-Chinafied” rare earth supply system – with Australia and Brazil on-board” https://t.co/LpDn23sEHq
India’s Gift Nifty Climbs as US Markets Slip, VIX Spikes
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +68.00 (0.29%) 23,188.00 DowJones -203.72 (-0.44%) 46,021.43 Nasdaq -61.73 (-0.28%) 22,090.69 India Vix +4.1125 (+21.97%) 22.8350 S&P 500 -18.21 (-0.27%) 6,606.49
China Keeps Rates Steady, Warns Against Long‑Duration Bonds
China holds LPR 1y 3.00% /5y 3.50% for 10th month. PBOC uses liquidity ops and fiscal support; growth soft, yuan pressured. Risk: weak domestic demand. Trade: avoid long-duration China bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rising Energy Prices Heighten Recession Risks in Asia
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
Brent May Need $175 to End Shortage, Says Currie
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Markets Misread Recovery; Shocks Create Worse Baselines
Markets still think this snaps back. It won’t, writes @elerianm This isn’t “transitory” It’s multiple equilibria, where each shock creates a new, worse baseline. #Macro #EnergyCrisis #SystemicRisk #Markets #Oil #Geopolitics
Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Pushes US to Ease Oil Sanctions
As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
Oil Prices Swing Amid Middle East Supply Uncertainty
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
Closed Hormuz Threatens $220 Oil, Near Recession
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
Mearsheimer: International Law and Diplomacy Are Dead, Trust Erodes
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on trusting US diplomacy: “International law has gone out the window, and diplomacy has gone out the window. You can’t trust the Israelis or the Americans as far as you can throw them.” https://t.co/bXOC31MInp
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
War's Ongoing Cost: Economic Damage Compounds Daily
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
Administration's Desperate Oil Plan Fuels Iran's Wartime Sales
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
Gold and Silver Fall Amid War, High Oil Prices
We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic...
Apple Shifts Production: 25% of iPhones Made in India
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
EU and Australia Near Trade Deal Completion Next Week
The world moves on: "EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week" https://t.co/0QuEvOaog1
US Shale Producers Unenthusiastic About $100 Oil
‘One day chicken, one day feathers’: why US shale producers are not cheering $100 oil. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/cEMRj6MyHl
Oil Price Spikes Can Boost US Economy
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels, Initial Supplies Arrive
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
U.S. Administration Confirms No Oil Export Restrictions Planned
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
30
I'd say a 6.50% 30-year fixed seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. When not if... That'd be the first time rates were that high since last summer. Pretty sure the housing market can't handle a return to 7%, not...
War Stalls UAE Gold Trade, Pushing Prices Down
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Oil Must Hit $138 for Recession Odds over 50%
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
Global Fossil Fuel Markets Fuel Domestic Energy Insecurity
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
Fed Underestimates Pre‑war Inflation, Mislabels Risks
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB Officials Hint at Possible April Rate Hike
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
Dollar's Short-Term Risks vs Long-Term Strength
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics