Eurozone China Deficit Widens From Imports and Falling Exports
Euro area deficit with China rising again -- this time on higher imports as much as on lower exports 1/ https://t.co/MzIpVJR3sZ
Recession Odds: Confusing Percentages Reveal Misunderstanding
Recession probabilities explained: 35% = I don't really believe it 40% = every economist's baseline number 50% = still don't believe it 60% = 25% 100% = 0% chance
War Turns Energy Shock Into Long-Term Economic Threat
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
China’s $250B Marshall‑Plan Fuels EV Surge in Emerging Markets
This is exactly what James Gutman predicted on the latest episode of @EnergyEmpirePod. EVs are selling out in the top 50 emerging markets given the $250B “Marshall Plan” being rolled out by China. https://t.co/75BxCTbmpS
Middle East Oil Shut‑in Now Three Times Feared
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
Asian Crisis 1997 Ripple: From Bangkok to Russia
Great graphic of the spread of the Asian financial crisis from Bangkok in July 1997 to the rest of South East and East Asia … and Russia. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rb45VTG9a5
US Companies Paid Over $22 B in Irish Taxes
Per the WSJ US firms other than Microsoft and Apple paid at least $12 billion in corporate income tax to Ireland last year (Apply and Microsoft haven't reported yet, but both paid ~ $5b to Ireland in 2024 ... so...
China Gains First Benefit as Iran War Cuts Oil Imports
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
Even ‘Safe’ Assets Now Carry Beta
In this regime, even “safe” carries beta: welcome to the era of the risk-full rate https://t.co/8SEao6GWwp
Central Banks Must Follow Mandates Amid Oil Shock
Lotta spilled milk around what central banks should do in the face of this oil shock. But the fact is what they are mandated to do is what matters.
Boxer Won't Reach Gulf Until Mid‑April, Oil Delay
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
Falling Prices and Yields Hint at Possible Middle East Conflict
Lower prices, lower yields, lower oil. Either that, or a new war in the Middle East. https://t.co/mnkr6zwlk9
China Boosts Rare‑earth Exports as US Ties Stall
Oh, oh. China. Rare earth exports increase. Fall to US. And the supply chains? The US-China trade deal? And the delayed Trump-Xi meeting?
Suppressing Price Adjustments Fuels Future Volatility
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
Yields, Bitcoin Up; Risk Assets Down—Macro Puzzle
What does it all mean? Why are yields and Bitcoin higher while risk assets are down and the dollar is bid? I take you back to the correlation matrix (below). Is it all just technical or is there a larger...
Rate Hikes Now Start From a Higher Baseline
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
Inflation Spikes Fast; Real Stability only when Jobs Slip
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
Fed Must Cut Rates as Oil‑Driven Recession Looms
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Single‑mandate Central Banks Are Trapped, Forced to Hike
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Markets Delay US‑Iran Ceasefire as Recession Fears Grow
The prediction markets are pushing out expectations of a US-Iran #ceasefire further and further... It's not unrelated that expectations of a #recession are creeping up at the same time... https://t.co/oFshabOLCJ
US Debt Swells $2.8T Since July, Near $40T
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
Ireland Outperforms Europe on Iran War Risk Exposure
Irish economy in better position than European peers on Iran war risk, Makhlouf says https://t.co/lomrlc1AAE via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/T1sVPBtbzJ
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
G10 Hawkish Policies Weigh on Dollar Strength
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Euro Summit Highlights Growing Economic Uncertainty Amid Middle East Turmoil
Glad to join leaders at last night’s Euro Summit in Brussels. We discussed the current economic situation in light of events in the Middle East, which has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. https://t.co/bHxScsvXzq
Friday's Must-Read: Finance Turmoil, Political
10 Friday AM Reads -Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don't Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal -Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026 -Demand destruction has begun -Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In -Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove...
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
CNY Posts Lowest USD Fix Since April 2023
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
US Chooses Between Lifting Iran Sanctions or Invading Kharg
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
Trump’s Southeast Asia Policy Turns Allies Into Economic Targets
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that...
Oil Embargo, Not Escalation, Is War’s Off‑ramp
This war needs an off-ramp. That isn't military escalation or just declaring "mission accomplished." Instead, it's an embargo of Iran's oil. That'll throw Iran into chaos and the upside for oil prices is limited given how much they've already risen... https://t.co/t20Z7S85OZ...
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Middle East Conflict Set to Spike Retail Prices, Deter Shoppers
How The Middle East Conflict Will Push Retail Prices Up And Consumers Into Retreat via @forbes https://t.co/vHxGN0OKET
Money Printing Steals
AI Productivity Stolen By Inflation 1. AI expands the supply of goods and services. That should mean lower prices for you—a pure win. 2. But that win gets stolen. The system prints more money, inflating prices to "offset" the natural drop....
Bank Lending Shifts: NBFIs Grow 60%, Corporates
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU