China's Exports Soar 21.8%, Trump Trade War Backfires
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
China’s Record 2025 Trade Surplus Fuels Ongoing Tensions
China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit—After record trade surplus in 2025, new figures suggest tensions will persist @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/siI2mnk49t https://t.co/siI2mnk49t
Natixis
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).
Beijing Hesitates Spending to Limit Household Financial Autonomy
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
Venezuela and North Korea Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
US Policies Triple‑Squeeze Seoul, Threatening Alliance Balance
Seoul is really getting squeezed - (1) U.S. trade policy squeezing its competitiveness, (2) U.S. policy in the Middle East squeezing its energy security, and now (3) U.S. warfighting requirements squeezing USFK assets. It's fine to lawyer this or that...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz, Blocks Oil; US Pushes Escort Reopening
WHEN THE ARTERY THAT SUPPLIES A FIFTH OF GLOBAL OIL NEEDS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IS WEAPONISED. Iran says it won’t let traffic through, bills its continued closure as victory. US wants to reopen it, proposes naval escorts if necessary. Here’s Iran’s Araghchi...
G7 Leaders Convene Video Call on Gulf War Energy Crisis
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
Tariff Confusion: Mixed Signals and White House Denial
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team...
China's Export Surge Leaves Workers Facing Wage Cuts
Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE
OWD's Africa Fertility Forecast Wildly Outdated
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...
Repo Stress Forces UST Basis Trades to Unwind, Cut Duration
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Reopen Hormuz Strait, Not Ban Oil Exports
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
Navy Halts Escorts, Raising Hormuz Supply‑Chain Risks
US Navy refusing to escort commercial ships thru the Strait. Saying the risk is too high. Is the end of the war not as close as some infer? Is supply chain risk escalating? Can a prolonged war fracture some of...
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Brazil's High Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Mining Hormuz Could Reroute Global Trade Permanently
Iran. Laying mines in the Strait. Is there a point of too many mines that merchant shipping will avoid Hormuz post war? Time required to remove? Who will do it? Will the maritime risks force new ways to serve the...
SPX Reverses After 100‑Day MA, Lower Low Possible
$SPX - The rally continued today until it hit the 100 day MA, but then we had a bearish reversal and closed the day lower. The bottom isn't confirmed yet so there may still be a lower low this week....
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
High Commodity Prices Spell Trouble for Bonds
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
Dollar's Downtrend Persists; Rallies Likely Temporary
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
Bolivia's New President Seeks Crisis Recovery, US Alignment
President @Rodrigo_PazP is attempting to lead #Bolivia out of an economic crisis and realign the country's foreign policy with Washington after two decades of socialist rule. Our interview with him from #ShieldoftheAmericas on Sunday. @sergiomendoza01 https://t.co/wmaCT239QF
Milei’s Inflation Surge Outpaces Even Hanke’s Growth Benchmark
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
Oil Shocks Historically Slash Equity Valuations
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Hormuz Tensions Spike Oil, Pressure Global Markets
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
Stagflation Looms as Iran Tensions Test Market Resilience
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
Envoy Witkoff Explains Iran War Origins and Future Talks
President Trump’s Special Envoy for Peace Steve Witkoff spoke to us in a wide ranging interview about how the war in Iran started, what’s at stake and what’s next for Russia/Ukraine talks https://t.co/wsZJtL7srT
Trump and Israel Inadvertently Empower Iran
Required reading. Trump and Israel, in their infinite militant wisdom, have put Iran in a stronger position now than they were when the “combat operations” (can’t say “war”) started.
China’s Rare Earths May Shorten US Iran Strikes
Could China’s rare earth supplies dictate how long US strikes on Iran go on? ..Washington had only two months of rare earths inventory, issue to dominate talks between Trump, Chinese President Xi. No duh. Not "Washington", dozens of US defind companies... https://t.co/NcUbH1CgJX
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Millionaires Now Pay Lower Taxes than Average Earners
As of Monday, millionaires are officially paying less taxes than the rest of us. https://t.co/x9lEkEmUoR
Container Diversions Jump 360% After Hormuz Closure
Container Shipping Diversions Surge 360% Amid Hormuz Closure. And the inland logistics to move all the loaded and empty containers? Including customs https://t.co/xjirN7c7am
Iran Mining Strait Could Fully Close Vital Shipping Lane
Uh. This would be REALLY bad. Up until now, traffic through the Strait has been functionally halted but it isn’t exactly *closed*, ships can are some are taking the risk. If Iran successfully mines the Strait, it’s *closed* closed.
Hormuz Closure Nullifies OPEC+ Supply Pledges
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
High Oil Prices Slightly Lift Inflation, Minimal GDP Hit
‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
US Navy Escort Uncertainty Threatens Global Trade via Hormuz
Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade 1⃣Strait of Hormuz Update: March 10, 2026 2⃣Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine Statement on Escorts 3⃣UNCTAD Report on Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Video: https://t.co/vS32XQeQDb https://t.co/ZfQwkBUMGW
Trump’s Spain Trade Threat Backfires on US Economy
Last week, Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain over the use of military bases against Iran. It’s clear he didn’t realize that Spain is 1 of 12 countries for which the US has a positive trade balance. TRUMP = SHOOTS...
Navy Escorts First Tanker; Soybeans Hold as Corn, Wheat Fall
U.S. Navy escorts its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. #corn & #wheat prices follow crude oil lower, but #soybeans hang onto modest gains on hopes we'll get final RVOs from EPA any day, with possible exports to China....
Quiet Recession Ends; Early Movers Set for Growth
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
Oil and LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Appears Minimal
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all https://t.co/5QrGSihDEA
US Oil Slides Below $80 as War Risk Fades
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Trump Denies US Strike; Evidence Points to American Tomahawk
When asked whether the US bombed an Iranian elementary school, Trump replied: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” But the NYT and other sources report that it was a U.S. Tomahawk strike. https://t.co/dyjpwhA9vS
Trump and Netanyahu May Empower Iran Hardliners
The FT reports that at the end of the day, the regime in Iran will probably remain standing and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is positioned to make the regime more hardline. HAVE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU OPENED THE DOOR FOR THE...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
Housing Stagflation Boosts Buyer Leverage Amid Seller Fatigue
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
Live US CPI Trade: NQ, Gold, Forex Opportunities
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK