Kirkuk Pipeline Offers Iraq's Sole Hormuz Bypass
Oil production around Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan, is connected to global markets via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan This is Iraq’s only crude supply that can bypass the currently-closed Strait of Hormuz Shut-ins in the Basra area by the Gulf are already at >3 MMbpd https://t.co/QRiBR3gOgs
ING Predicts Oil Market Shock if Hormuz Closes
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
Multiple Macro Threats Could Stall Rate Cuts, Spark Defaults
"Iran is only part of the story. There’s also the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology capable of suddenly wiping out, as well as creating, wealth for shareholders and creditors. There are the soured loans that are starting to...
Hormuz Closure Reverses WCS‑WTI Spread Amid Sour Crude Flow
Most of the crude that ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is medium-to-heavy sour Western Canadian Select at Houston vs WTI, which reflects a clean light-heavy quality differential, had weakened (widened) on Venezuela reentering the USGC market—Hormuz closure entirely reversed...
China’s Foreign Policy Bets on Self‑reliance, Distrust of Others
China's main foreign policy strategy assumption seems to be that every other leader in the world is a stone cold moron and that they need to protect themselves as much as possible by not relying on anyone else for imports...
How IEA Emergency Oil Releases Actually Work
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
Trump's Quick End Threatened by Hormuz Oil Leverage
trump may want to end the iran war quickly. but closing the strait of hormuz or even threatening it keeps oil high and the conflict alive. @gzeromedia
Japan Sets NdPr Price Floor, Investors Remain Unmoved
Japan becomes the second country to lock in a NdPr price floor. Countries seem to recognise the issue with rare earths but equity investors seem not to... https://t.co/5GI3bRV7K3
Markets Question Reopening Timing Amid Falling Oil Prices
The hard thing for markets is reading this while oil prices are falling — I think the question is whether markets correctly anticipate a reopening before it happens or whether it needs a big headline.
Supreme Court Strikes IEPPA Tariffs, Highlighting Endless Instability
The Supreme Court ruled IEPPA tariffs illegal on Feb 20. That's less than 3 weeks ago, but feels like eons. That's Trump 2.0. Nothing's ever stable. You have to wonder if we'll even remember war with Iran 3 weeks from...
Rapidan Energy Hosts Iran Risk Update for Clients
Well attended @RapidanEnergy Iran update huddle this morning for our Geopolitical Risk Service clients. If you're managing risk in energy and macro markets and don't know us yet, this might be a good time to become acquainted. info@rapidanenergy.com. https://t.co/qRL4heI0Si
India Redirects LPG to Homes Amid Gas Shortage
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 87%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 87% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA'S PATH TO RECOVERY = REPLACING THE BOLIVAR WITH THE DOLLAR. https://t.co/rbalL5aTfh
China Buffers Iran Oil Shock with Stockpiles, EV Shift
China Has Spent Years Preparing for the Iran Oil Crisis—Massive oil stockpiles and a shift to electric vehicles help insulate the economy from supply disruptions in the Mideast @BrianSpegele https://t.co/xq1mMRdTGu https://t.co/xq1mMRdTGu
China's Jan‑Feb Soy Imports Hit 7‑year Low
🇨🇳China imported 12.55 million metric tons of soybeans in Jan-Feb, the smallest volume for the period in 7 years. The Brazilian harvest was slower, U.S. cargoes were still en route and customs clearing times were extended. Expectations for March are...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens 20% of Global Oil Flow
🎙️ I was thrilled to rejoin @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss the historic and ongoing disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world's oil flows. This is it. This is...
Iran Conflict Spikes Energy, Stalls Fed’s Inflation Fight
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
Dollar Stalls Near 99.50 as Risk Aversion Eases
The Dollar stallout around 99.50 aligned to channel, some Fib standing and of course the curb on severe risk aversion around oil prices. That said, not a lot of pullback in the softened rate cut expectations around the FOMC's 2026...
Nasser's Point Is Valid; Aramco‑embargo Link Irrelevant
Nasser isn't spreading hyperbole. He's correct about what's happening. But, the assertion that this is notable because Aramco was the nexus of the 1970s oil embargo is...not relevant.
Market Easing on Trump Prolongs Strait of Hormuz Crisis
This isn’t over and the current market reaction, by reducing pressure on Trump, is only elongating the duration of the crisis and the physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/bMeee4CJjz
Trump Deficits Financing Fuels Money Supply, Sparks Inflation
My column in @FortuneMagazine on the US deficit and inflation: "If the Trump budget deficits continue to be financed through the banking system & money market funds, the growth rate in the money supply will continue to accelerate & headline inflation...
Dollar Bounce Signals Buying Opportunity, Risks for Commodities
If you know where the dollar is going, you know where global liquidity is going. $DXY just bounced hard off 96.65 multi-year support and is pressing into the $100 resistance zone. Momentum is improving with higher lows and rising RSI. Today’s pullback looks...
IEA to Decide Coordinated Emergency Oil Release Today
🚨The International Energy Agency is convening member governments later today to decide whether to conduct a coordinated release from members' emergency oil stockpiles. #energy #OOTT #IranWar
Control Money Growth, Offset Oil Spending, Curb Inflation
My new column in @FortuneMagazine on US inflation: "If the rate of growth in broad money is controlled, then higher spending on oil & gasoline will be offset by lower spending on other items, restraining overall inflation." INFLATION = A MONETARY PHENOMENON.
Energy Surge Won’t Spike Inflation, Yields Stay Stable
From my friend at Stategas @donrissmiller: Energy prices have been extreme - but several factors are keeping inflation down - rent, car prices and Quits not leading to higher comp. = inflation remains at 2-3% with a 10...
Stay Cautious: Watch Oil at $100, Trust Trump Trade
Oil reversal. Stocks mixed. Gold up slightly. Dollar easing. Know what that means? Nobody knows what to believe right now Iran is hitting back, geopolitics are getting worse, but Trump says there's an off-ramp and the war ends soon Mixed signals everywhere....
Iran Crisis Deepens K‑
It is hard not to see K-Shaped consequences to the events in Iran, as those at the bottom around the global disproportionately experience the real time impacts of food and energy inflation.
Only 28% See U.S. Economy as Good, 72% Not
"In the Pew Research Center’s latest survey, just 28 percent of U.S. adults rate economic conditions as excellent or good, while 72 percent say they are only fair or poor."
Goldilocks Market Boosts EM Commodity Exporters Amid Brent Dip
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Skip Oil Frenzy; EM Differentiation Lifts Brazil, South Africa
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
Oil's Real Upside Remains Unpriced Amid Ongoing Tensions
$WTI hit $111 intraday. Pulled back to $97. Still up 70%+ YTD. Markets priced in a ceasefire that hasn't happened. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Unpopular opinion: the high for oil is not in yet. https://t.co/Ag4wJnGVhR
Bypasses and SPR only Buy Time; only Hormuz Reopening Solves
Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. SPR/IEA release would buy more time, but doesn't solve either. Ultimately, only one thing solves the problem: re-open the Strait of Hormuz. But rather than hitting the wall this...
Middle East Strikes and Oil Surge Amplify Global Risks
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
Trump Vows ‘Death, Fire, Fury’ over Hormuz Closure
Trump threatens ‘Death, Fire and Fury’ if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz The US President claims the war on Iran is "very complete" but also hasn’t ruled out taking over the Strait https://t.co/xy4DfQoYYm
Iceland and Norway React as Trump Eyes Greenland
As Trump has been screaming into the void about acquiring Greenland, the wheels over in #Iceland and #Norway are starting to turn. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wGaex4mPph #eu #europeanunion #geopolitics https://t.co/7SEnZinGjq
US Retail Container Imports Set to Decline Amid Tariff Uncertainty
U.S.-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, due to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty & potentially the Iran conflict according to the latest Global Port Tracker report. https://t.co/hASNRjFabC
US Policies Drive Europe Toward Cheaper Chinese Imports
The shock is coming from the United States, whose actions continually raise of the cost of living / cost of business for Europe. It should be no surprise that this results in increased imports from a supplier who offers cost...
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil Past $200
HOW OIL COULD SURGE TO $200 AND BEYOND @tracyalloway and I talk with @Rory_Johnston -- typically one of the least-alarmist people in oil -- about how the longer the Straight of Hormuz is shut, the greater the likelihood of an...
Iran Conflict Sparks Volatile WTI Oil Prices
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀? West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has recently shown erratic price movements following the military conflict involving Iran. Oil has long been a critical commodity supplied by the Middle East. Because of the geopolitical tensions that...
World Leaders Scramble to Buffer Economies From War
Global leaders race to shield their economies from war shocks https://t.co/i7GALZxtxQ via @endacurran @jdorosario @DanielPFlatley https://t.co/LHSlsEyQV6
China’s Early‑year Exports Jump 22%, EU and SE Asia Lead
China’s exports increased 21.8% year on year in dollar terms in January and February mainly due to shipments to south-east Asia, which increased 29.4%, and to the EU, up 27.8%. Exports to the US fell 11% while imports from the...
Germany's Surplus Grows as Domestic Demand Slumps
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus widened to €21bn in January, up from €17.4bn the prev month; the highest level since the summer of 2024. However, this does not signal a revival of Germany’s export model. Exports fell by...
China Prioritizes Iran's Energy Over Regime Politics
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...
China's Economic Surplus Outpaces Global GDP Share
One of my better charts -- shows China's surplus relative to global GDP. Has had a big impact I think ... https://t.co/xkL0hjBjP1
UK’s Gas Dependence Leaves Households Facing 60% Bill Surge
Britain is more exposed than other European economies to the latest movements in energy markets due to greater reliance on natural gas. Households are also in a fragile position as energy bills are still 60% higher than before Russia’s full-scale...
Supply Shock Forces Demand Destruction, Remote Work Encouraged
Hello from Hanoi where the energy and supply shock from the war is hitting it here. The government wants people to use less fuel for transport by working from home. When there’s a supply shock & u can’t increase it...
G7 Energy Ministers to Discuss Oil, LNG Amid SPR Debate
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
Europe's Energy Weakness Undermines Euro Compared to Peers
Europe's energy vulnerability is contributing to the euro having a worse war than its peers, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/D2PXb56w3z via @opinion https://t.co/aIh2l1QXUy
Trump, Putin Discuss War, Peace Amid U.S. Sanction Review
Trump, Putin talk of war and peace as US weighs easing Russian oil sanctions https://t.co/XxiEKNK66b