PCE Offers a More Accurate, Comprehensive Inflation Gauge
PCE is a better measure of all spending and takes account of consumer substitution in their spending. CPI’s advantage is speed: they can tabulate it quicker because you only need to check the prices of a pre-determined basket of goods. But PCE is the more accurate measure.
V‑shaped Rebound Likely, but Deleveraging Extends Beyond One Day
Rooting for the immediate v shaped recovery in KOSPI/Nikkei but, in my experience, violent deleveraging events are seldom limited to a single session. Held off on any aggressive dip buying today.
Iran Conflict Spurs Gas Prices Near $3.5 Threshold
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Easter Europe Travel Spikes as Middle East Conflict Drives Demand
Ryanair's O'Leary sees surge in Easter bookings to Europe due to Middle East war https://t.co/TDpGBi7ecF
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
Bitcoin Can't Be Frozen, Stablecoins Can
People keep asking, “Why not stablecoins”? The most obvious explanation is actually quite simple: stablecoins can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t
US Valuation Premium Shrinks as Global Earnings Surge
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
Oil Spike Threatens USD’s Medium‑Term Reserve Status
I was on @Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal yesterday to discuss fallout from the spike in oil prices for the global economy and what this means for US reserve currency status. We're getting a risk-off Dollar rally now, but medium-term this...
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Oil Levels Dictate Market Peaks During Exogenous Shocks
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
AI Capex Boom Outpaces Global GDP, Prompting US Shift
“There’s just not enough GDP to support all of them.” @dampedspring returns to @excessreturnpod to break down the funding test behind the AI Capex boom, how the Iran conflict is being priced, and why he’s shifted away from US assets. https://t.co/wooKnQeQKH
European Gas Trades over Five Times U.S., Inventory Crunch.
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
Hormuz Closure Halts All Jebel Ali Container Services
To see exactly which ocean container services are disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz visit Jebel Ali port on Flexport Atlas and look at the list of services calling there. Jebel Ali in Dubai is...
Geopolitics Decoded: Investment Insights Ahead of Headlines
Thoughts? Follow @tallguytycoon - I break down geopolitical events and how they impact investments before the news does.
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
Weiss' Strategy Benefits Netanyahu, Trump as CBS Rises
Semafor: "Weiss’ approach has paid some dividends." For Netanyahu and Trump. A new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis https://t.co/BllROEbkrD
Dollar Rallies as Risk‑off Sentiment Deepens, Stocks Fall
In contrast to the US indices drop, the $DXY Dollar Index is extending its rally. Risk correlations are increasingly aligning - suggesting a stronger drive in sentiment (specifically 'risk off') https://t.co/TQcm749mr6
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
Iraq Threatens 3 Million‑Barrel Cut Amid Global Energy Crisis
this is not a joke. this is not a test. this is a global energy emergency unfolding in real time
China's Mineral Dominance Exposes Western Strategic Failure
China won the mineral war. Two new books show how the West let it happen Read more here: https://t.co/9ofBAHFGLx https://t.co/Qa5SYQX6Dg
Gold Slides Below $5,100 as Safe‑Haven Demand Fades
Spot gold has now fallen below $5,100 despite rising global uncertainty. Safe haven bids are fading as traders de risk and raise cash. Silver has dropped under $78, down $20 in just 24 hours. Volatility is accelerating across metals . Is this...
Weak Asia, Surging Oil Drive Fast Market
Asia is weak, oil is ripping, we're in a fast market right now on The Morning Show https://t.co/jn2RN28AFk
Europe Uses Most Gas for Heating, Not Power
📌 A reminder: Most of the gas Europe imports is used for heat - to warm our buildings and to provide process heat in industry. Only around 20% of gas is used to generate electricity. https://t.co/31yV3zzXKL
Real Prices Haven't Hit New Highs Since Dec 2024
When you strip out the dollar inflation, we haven't seen a new high since December 2024 https://t.co/uYUJP2gXaZ
Brent Jumps 14% as Dollar Strengthens, Markets Shocked
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
EU Seeks Pipeline Inspection as Kyiv Downplays Russian Attack
Ukraine is under pressure to let the EU inspect a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, as the pro-Kremlin countries accuse Kyiv of overstating the impact of a Russian attack. https://t.co/FChmxjyqus
Dollar Dominates as Safe Haven Amid Global Tensions
The Dollar is the Only Game in Town: If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback has is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries...
Strait of Hormuz Remains Open, No Legal Closure
Middle East ports operational update: Tuesday March 3: No internationally recognised legal closure of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/iXWbXlmInn
Crude Price Threshold Needed for S&P 500 Rally
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
Aramco Eyes Red Sea Route as Hormuz Tensions Rise
Efficacy of such a move @chigrl ? Aramco Explores Plan to Export Oil Via Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz The world’s biggest oil exporter has a 5M barrel-a-day pipeline that runs across the country which can transport oil from fields in the...
Oil Spikes Signal Deflationary Shock, Not Inflation
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
Japan Initiates Yen Defense via Reverse Carry Trade
Japan selling to prepare to defend the Yen. Stage 1 of reverse carry trade thesis.
Trump Risks Presidency in Escalating Iran Conflict
Trump Gambles His Presidency in His War With Iran clear and incisive analysis here by @tylerpager https://t.co/1Xtyjsqd4S via @NYTimes
Assessing Middle East Impact on Stock Valuations
In Today’s ‘Kya Lagta Hai’ sent exclusively to our smallcase and PMS subscribers we discuss: The future course of action in the light of the situation in the Middle East and if the same is discounted in the stock price as...
WWIII Fears Drive Surge in Dollar Demand
The $US role in the world economy has been questioned, but amid fears of WWIII, the dollar is in much demand. Not Swiss francs. Not gold. The dollar. See https://t.co/pDzT69A9b1 https://t.co/bIUvqkX4HO
Euro Inflation Stable; Service Spike Likely Temporary
🇪🇺 Don't think there's much to worry about in today's euro area inflation numbers. Core goods inflation is rising, but several temporary factors drove the upside surprise in services (Olympics effect?), barely offsetting the downside surprises from last months. https://t.co/UqbbT9rLY9
Korea's Market Plummets Amid Iran Risk, Record Sell‑off
🔴 "Black Tuesday" in Korea. (maybe a little hyperbolic) Samsung -9.9%. SK Hynix -11.5%. Worst single-day drops since Aug 2024. KOSPI -7.2% — largest single-day drop in 19 months. Program trading halted intraday. Foreign investors dumped 3 trillion won in the morning session...
Energy Crunch Threatens BOE Missing Inflation Target
Energy crunch risks the BOE missing its inflation target for another year https://t.co/FWCJnvjnZJ via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/zZtUBjDKCz
Middle East Tensions Spark Risk‑off, S&P Futures Slide
Escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran triggered risk-off sentiment, driving S&P 500 futures down over 1%. https://t.co/NbHGasOhbi
Wall Street's Outrage over Bear Case Proved Bullish Signal
In hindsight, the entire financial establishment being upset at us alluding to the mere existence of a bear case probably was not the most bullish thing that’s happened this year and maybe had some signal value as to positioning.
Europe's Gas Reserves Plunge, Refilling Hinges on Middle East Routes
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
Geopolitical Tensions Push SPX Futures Down, Near Key Range
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
ECB Won’t Base Rates Solely on Energy Prices, Villeroy Says
Villeroy says the ECB won’t set rates based solely on energy prices https://t.co/G8My89Yxzs via @SamyAdghirni https://t.co/rTdDrkhLLF