Bond Yields Spike, Markets Remain Unpredictable Amid War
War & Mortgage Rates: We're All Along For The Ride Since I am old & have been around for many Geopolitical Events I have learned 2 things: - No one knows exactly how things will turn out - The initial reaction of Financial Markets won't be same in a few weeks Today when the Bond Market opened we saw Canada Bond Yields rip upwards over 3% in an hour
Traders Slash BOE Cut Odds Below 50% for March
Traders trim BOE bets, see less than 50% chance of a cut in March https://t.co/qbysIjoLyJ via @highisland https://t.co/TOAzMgmV6e
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Italy's 2025 Deficit Exceeds EU 3% Limit
Italy’s deficit breached the EU’s 3% ceiling in 2025 after all https://t.co/khPIWxEtbb via @donatopmancini https://t.co/QURIoNIGBe
Breaking English Monopoly: Live Multilingual Trade Translations Launch
For the last 250 years, English has been the language of global trade. Flexport Translations changes that, allowing importers and exporters to communicate in their own language with live translations (powered by @grok) so they can understand each other. We've...
ECB Signals Quick Rate Moves Amid Gas Surge
The Fed has been quiet but THIS ECB comment shows you how central bankers are thinking about the rise in oil/gas prices Minutes after European natural gas surged 50%, an ECB Governor said they’re ready to “move quickly” on rates. Energy spike...
Suez Canal Transits Slip 7% Amid Middle East Tensions
Suez Canal transits. By vessel types. Will the next one show the impact of the US-Iran war?
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
High Finance Remains AI‑Proof, Threatened Only by Socialism
You have to understand that the high finance industry is the most AI-proof (minus back office) because the edge has never been about efficiency It’s regulatory arbitrage, liquidity monopolies, and bilateral custodial trusts backed by war Its only real vulnerability is socialism
Gas Prices Jump
UK & European gas price benchmarks have both hit 12-month highs, jumping ~50% today after Qatar paused production in the face of Iranian attacks But it's worth putting this in perspective – we're a long way off the insane spikes we saw...
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the S&P
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 14 months later: South Korea +204%, Peru +143%, South Africa +108% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/2Lpruh2h0i
Europe’s Energy Dependence Exposes Critical Structural Vulnerability
Europe is once again reminded of a structural vulnerability. As I told @politico: “The fact is still that Europe imports most of its energy from other countries. And I think events like this just highlight how problematic, how risky that is...
Dollar Rallies on Middle East War; Treasuries Stay Unsafe
Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven: There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5%...
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Ten-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Brief Conflict Reaction
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Geopolitical Shocks Bottom Fast, Recover in Weeks
Geopolitical shocks feel scary… but history says bottoms come faster than you think. Avg S&P drawdown: -4.6% Avg time to bottom: 19 days Avg recovery: 40 days 6–12 months later? Mostly positive.
Post‑COVID Dreams of Roaring Twenties Meet 1970s Reality
Post-COVID, there was hope for an another roaring 20s. It’s been more like the 1970s.
March Cold Snap Won’t Significantly Raise Consumer Gas Prices
A cold spell in Europe in March would definitely put the cat among the pigeons, but worth remembering that it takes a while for gas prices to feed through to consumer prices, so "flash in the pan" shift won't matter,...
US Strike on Iran Could End Low‑oil Price Relief
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
Strait of Hormuz Carries Significant LNG Alongside Oil
Very interesting > The Strait of Hormuz is not just oil - but also LNG. https://t.co/jlv7Hrp9LJ
Dollar Rally Hits All EM; Oil Ties Soon Diverge
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
War‑time Trade Lifts Commodities, S&P Teeters at 6785
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
Myers Predicts Strikes, Reveals Markets' Critical Blind Spot
The strikes happened. Charles Myers laid out exactly what was coming — and now he’s the person to tell you what markets are still getting wrong. Steven Ehrlich sat with him hours before it happened. His full breakdown of what...
ISM Miss Could Cool Yields, Boost Growth Stocks
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
Middle East Headlines Dominate Market over Weekly Data
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
War Fuels USD Rally, While Equities and Treasuries Falter
$USD rallied on the war. Equities slid. Gold and oil jump. US Treasuries are not the safe haven. With decapitation strike on Iran, which the US said it had destroyed its nuclear capability last June, the end...
Buy RFI: Yield Boost and Discount Recovery
RFI preferred: similar REIT CEFs face a lower-rates tailwind; RFI shows larger mean-reversion upside vs RQI. Risk: rate/timing, leverage. Trade: buy RFI for yield + discount recovery 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Ukraine Urges UAE to Curb Russian Revenue, Shares Drone Tech
Ukraine could well ask that the UAE show some reciprocal good will by reducing its systemic enablement of Russian revenue generation.
Middle East Tensions Likely Push Rand Lower, Fuel Costs Up
Prolonged tension in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, if sustained, and a weaker Rand. Add the increased fuel levies announced in the budget speech on top of macro concerns, and taking the governor’s conservative nature and the new 3% inflation...
Buy SPX Dips Near 6800 Amid Oil‑driven Volatility
Elevated volatility as oil spikes and heavy Treasury settlements. S&P gamma at 6800; VIX resists ~20. Risk: higher oil, weaker productivity → yields up. Trade: buy SPX dips near 6800. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Threat Spurs Metals Surge, Gold Hits $5,400
After Iran’s strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, capital is rotating aggressively into metals. Gold has reclaimed $5,400, up 2.22%, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value in just 6 hours. Silver has surged to $96, up 4.32%, adding $250 billion in...
Iranian Drone Strike Shuts Major Saudi Refinery, Raising Oil Risk
Saudi Arabia has reportedly shut down Ras Tanura, one of the world’s largest oil refineries, following an Iranian drone strike. This is not just a regional headline. Ras Tanura is a critical node in global energy supply. Any prolonged disruption could...
Dividends Dip, Payouts Surge as KWSP Assets Swell
The 2025 Employees' Provident Fund (KWSP) dividends experienced a slight decline to 6.15% for both conventional and syariah accounts. CEO Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn attributed this reduction to: 1. stagnant growth within the local stock market and the 2. strengthening of the...
Renewables Cut Fossil Dependence; Petrol Becomes Luxury
The Iranian conflict highlights another reason why Net Xero is critical. Ramping up renewables reduces our dependency on global fossil fuel markets. Pretty simple really. Petrol will become a luxury purchase
Iranian Conflict Expands, Fuels Oil Surge and Market Volatility
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 2 — MONDAY MARKET OPEN 🚨 Day 2 confirms the war is widening, not containing. ~48 Iranian officials confirmed dead including Khamenei. Iran is retaliating across the Gulf — hitting Dubai, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and targeting...
Foreign Investors Trigger Record South Korean Stock Selloff
🚨Has the South Korean market gone TOO FAR? Foreign investors dumped a record 6.8 trillion won ($4.7 billion) of South Korean stocks on Friday, the largest single-day selloff EVER.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20
China’s Two Sessions Reveal Economic Outlook Amid High Stakes
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy—Beijing’s target-setting takes place against a high-stakes backdrop https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
Middle East Conflict Cuts 18% of Global Air Freight Capacity
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
U.S. Pulls Out of Key Syrian, Iraqi Bases
This comes after several other positions in Syria and Iraq have been vacated by U.S. forces in recent months. Among those are Al Asad air base, which Iran targeted in 2020 after the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.
Avoid Market Open Trades Without a Clear Plan
Back to Investment Markets in light of Iran-US-Israel War 📈 "If you don't have a clear game plan, you shouldn't be taking any action at the market open... If your game plan is to reduce risk across the board, again open is...
US‑Israeli Iran Strike Threatens President’s MAGA Support
In his latest Greed & Fear FLASH, my good friend Chris Wood wrote: "The US-Israeli attack on Iran... [is] extremely risky politically for the US president, most particularly as his MAGA base is against overseas wars." https://t.co/MyysVy5Ukr
Japanese Investment in China Jumps 55% Amid Tensions
“At a time when Tokyo and Beijing appear to be drifting further apart politically, Japanese capital is moving in the opposite direction…Japanese foreign direct investment into China surged by 55.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025.” https://t.co/osyTCAOqOp
Iran Conflict Spurs Oil, Markets, Crypto, Uranium Opportunities
Thoughts? The Iran war and oil crisis affect your money across four key areas: oil prices and inflation, stock market volatility, cryptocurrency movements, and overlooked opportunities in uranium and energy security stocks.
Brent Crude Jumps 7% Amid War‑Driven Price Surge
On the opening of the Intercontinental Exchange Market in London, BRENT CRUDE SURGED. Since the close on Friday, it's up over 7%, trading at $78 / barrel. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER OIL PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/H6nboenO4u
Booked Profits, Gold Bullish; SPX Neutral, Gap Fill Anticipated
GOLD & SPX TRADES UPDATE: Booked profits right at the weekly open in anticipation of gap fills on both & middle east tensions holding lesser impact than everyone's fearing. On SPX , i am leaning neutral to slightly bearish , not much...
King Dollar Not Dead; China Still Buying Dollars
Talk of the death of King Dollar is premature. Exhibit #1: China. It runs a large current account surplus, and is accumulating a mountain of predominately dollar-denominated foreign assets at record rates. Those who YAK about DE-DOLLARIZATION should start to FOLLOW THE...
China, Russia Poised to Bolster Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on Chinese and Russian support for Iran: “[China and Russia] may send additional naval assets to assist Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz. They are continuing to supply intelligence … and critical minerals that Iran...
Japan Set to Amend Article 9, Recognize SDF by 2030
I’m calling it now: Japan will amend Article 9 before 2030 to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution
Asia's Undervalued Currencies Poised for Explosive Gains
Interesting piece from Bloomberg's Shuli Ren, on the risk that Asia's wildly undervalued currencies might have an explosive appreciation ... 1/3 https://t.co/j9M2wdl5ED