Fiat Currencies Fail; Bitcoin Offers a True Standard
100 Egyptian pounds equals 2 dollars. You try to spend money and have to deal with conversion rates All countries’ currency is just paper backed by nothing Dollars are printed and you are taxed to fund wars you don’t support The whole world should be on the bitcoin standard
Korea Leads 2025 Surge in US Equity Inflows
If there is a real risk off move (& it is still an if) the structure of the inflows that have covered the US current account deficit will matter. Foreign buying of US equity surged in 2025, and no where more...
Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil, Lifts Dollar, Drags Dow
Further to the prior post: A classic initial market reaction to this weekend’s eruption of military conflict in the Middle East: Oil has surged over 10%, the Dollar has strengthened, and Dow futures have opened down some 500 points. #economy #markets #oil...
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
Geopolitical Tensions Push USD, Gold, and Oil Higher
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
Crisis Mode Returns: US‑Israel Strikes Ignite Market Volatility
Markets are back in crisis mode with the US–Israel strikes on Iran dominating headlines: global risk assets are reacting, oil prices are spiking, and S&P volatility is alive. Join us LIVE at 6pm EST as we break down how ES futures...
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Europe Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker After Four Years
Why are European countries just now standing up to Russia's oil revenue and shadow fleet after the war just crossed its 4 year anniversary? What has changed? Has the US done more to help Ukraine in the last year than...
Erdoğan Blames Netanyahu for US‑Israeli Strikes, Calls Ceasefire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said Netanyahu’s “provocations” triggered the US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Erdoğan said that Israel is “poisoning the process,” and urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent a wider regional war. https://t.co/y2YtJLqeUy
US Iran Strike Could Redefine Market Risk Profile
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
India Hedges Bets, Deepens Ties with EU, Japan, Brazil, Canada
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
Quick Iran Conflict Could Cap Gold and Oil Gains
US-Israel Invasion of Iran May Cap Crude and Gold - Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn't impaired. Both were up about 20% in 2026 before Feb. 28. If typical swift...
Oil Spike Threatens Stocks Like 1990s Gulf War
A sharp oil spike to those levels would likely result in a one-variable stock market like we initially saw during the 1990’s Persian Gulf War. Stocks under pressure until oil prices come back down. https://t.co/8DQZhDYXqo
Iran Declares Hormuz Open, IRGC Hints Otherwise
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
Small Business Owner Refunds Unlawful Tariffs, Calls Out White House
"This small business owner is already giving her customers a tariff refund" https://t.co/958bIzS0SL "if somebody charges you something and it's unlawful, they should give you your money back" Cc: The White House https://t.co/82Lv6OPwJw
Gold Poised Near $6k Amid Iran‑Israel Conflict
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
Renewables Insulate You From Oil Market Chaos
Two different worlds entirely. With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, oil producers closing production and oil tanker insurance companies ceasing coverage in the middle east: Person with no solar & no EV: Congrats, your gas expense may soon double, your...
Industrial Policy: Faith Over Coherent Strategy in Unknown Territory
"The Incoherence of Modest Industrial Policy" https://t.co/FC72XUqs6v "If policymakers admit they are operating in unknown territory, then the idea that they can steer society in a coherent direction becomes less a policy strategy and more an article of faith." https://t.co/pTa6RJfJnQ
Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility
IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U
71% Blame Trump Tariffs for Higher Prices, War Distracts
Americans have SOURED on Pres. Trump. According to the latest Economist poll, 71% of Americans say that Trump’s tariffs increased the price they paid for goods and services. TO DISTRACT AMERICANS, TRUMP HAS JUST STARTED A WAR. https://t.co/WAh0999SVq
Thailand's Deflation Linked to Sub‑Golden Money Supply Growth
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Hyperscaler Capex Slowing, Semis Set to Underperform
Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. https://t.co/uOhD8pfFUa
Korea and Taiwan Set for Massive Chip Surpluses
If there isn't a new energy shock (a big if), the surpluses of the chip exporting powers (Korea and Taiwan) are going to be absolutely stunning this year. 1/2 https://t.co/N2A7u4k1ai
Identify the Top Trade for a Middle East Conflict
What is the #1 trade you want to be holding when a Middle East war breaks out over the weekend? ⬇️
Middle East Tensions Could Ripple Through Global Markets Next Week
Middle East Tensions Update & Possible impact on global financial markets going into the next week : https://youtu.be/XZvRoREIMoY?si=LIlBTBlEX3F68ljk
War-Driven Correction: Is India's Market Already Priced In?
Friday's closing correction was also on the basis of war. So, what do you think? How much will fall tomorrow? Or has the war's impact already been discounted in the Indian stock market?
Dubai's Woes Ripple Into India’s $45 Bn Remittances
Problems in Dubai are not just for people staying there - it spills over to India - we get $45 bn of remittances from the Middle East each year.
Iran Leadership Change Fuels Heightened US‑Iran Tensions
1/ Update on middle east tensions & their market impact : - Iran's Supreme leader is dead , new leadership will take charge soon (likely today) - IRGC announced to hit America & Israel today in the most intense way - Trump responded...
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
China's 2025 Economy: Hot Sectors Stuck Amid Cooling
“The Chinese economy in 2025…is like a giant machine where large parts are beginning to cool down, while a considerable part remains at high temperature. But the temperature of this part is difficult to conduct to the cooling parts.” @ChinaFile https://t.co/oC1Pwzm8je
China Home Prices Plunge, Property Slump Hits Growth
China new home prices fell at fastest pace in 3+ yrs (Feb). Macro: property slump drags growth. Key factors: weak demand, limited policy relief. Risks: wealth erosion, consumption hit. Trade: short Chinese property developers/RE ETFs 🔻 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,...
IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz, Threatening 20% Oil Flow
🚨 IRAN WAR UPDATE — MARCH 1, 2026 🚨 Khamenei is confirmed dead by Iranian state media. But the bigger story: the IRGC has formally closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms are instructing vessels to shelter in place. About 20%...
Iran War Urges China to Fast‑track Renewables, Shun Coal
Thinking ahead... does this push China to further speed up the adoption of renewables + batteries and make it even more reluctant to wind down coal. The Iran war is an object lesson in a) American power (which shale has...
Supply Chain Turmoil Continues: Tariff Wave Drives Uncertainty
Being a Demand Planner, I am trained to notice patterns, seasonality and cycles. To notice the root cause of those disrupting signals and what causes them, so I can get my forecasting model right and predict future events. Since January 20, 2025,...
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
China’s AI Tech Rotation Amid Modest Growth Forecast
NPC signals 4.5–5% growth, tech rotation to AI specialists and ~1.5tn CNY ultra‑long bonds to fund infra; housing risks and policy disappointment loom. Trade: buy selective China AI-tech names for cyclical catalyst exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Trump's War Risks Global Energy Market Instability
How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5Rh1Ysyc2w https://t.co/XMEM6rLIOY
Copper Shortage Imminent: Prices Set to Hit $15k
https://t.co/U4SkF1hAbc @UBS boosting its copper price target is just the latest confirmation of what we’ve been warning about for years: the world is flying head-first into a structural copper shortage. A projected $15,000/tonne copper price by 2027… and a half-million-tonne supply deficit...
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Jeff Sachs: US Has Just Stepped Into Trouble over Iran
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
West's Import Dependence Stems From Financial‑First Economy
Visionary investor @ctindale takes on THE big question: How did America and the West become so dependent on imports for almost everything we use? Tindale says the Western focus on the financial economy over the material economy has led to a...
Iran Conflict Sparks Oil Surge and Market Turbulence
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Upcoming Trade Gains Interest per Jan 13 Macro Memo
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
Hormuz Closure After US‑Israel Strike Sends Markets Tumbling
🚨 OPERATION EPIC FURY — Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran at 1:15 AM ET. Regime change is the stated goal. Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. US officials say...
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...