Admin Raises Section 122 Tariff
New tariffs levied - twice in less than 24 hours. Now Section 122 used to levy 15% across the board instead of 10%. That gets the effective tariff rate closer to what it was before the ruling by the Supreme Court on the IEEPA tariffs. Administration is accelerating the timeline on investigations for Section 232 & 301 tariffs. Those are harder to remove when they go into place than IEEPA tariff or the 122 that admin is using to bridge the gap.
Supreme Court Reaffirms Congress Holds Tariff Authority
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the Supreme Court finally crushing Trump’s tariffs: “The powers to impose duties are congressional, not presidential... Today the Supreme Court stood up... and said the President of the US must abide by the law.” https://t.co/Dg8fWzEyAP
2025 US Job Growth Hits Decade Low Amid Tariffs
US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside of recessions in the past two decades. US TARIFFS = TANK TIME. https://t.co/ONURMpns4b
Venezuela: Underrated U.S. Geopolitical Triumph
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Tariff Refunds Benefit Importers, Not Shoppers
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
Effective High‑skill Immigration Policy Requires
One of my most important messages about high skilled immigration is that you have to do the policy right. And to do that, you have to accurately understand the economics of high skilled immigration and the practical realities and mechanism...
Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Iran’s $20 B Boeing Order Vanished After Deal Collapse
Under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran ordered 110 Boeing jets — 80 for Iran Air (77W, 777-9, 737 MAX) & 30 737 MAX for Aseman signed in 2016–17…deal value $20 billion at list prices After Trump admin withdrew Iran deal...
Russia's Economy Surpasses Japan Amid Kuril Islands Dispute
As Russia and Japan arm wrestle over the Kuril Islands, Russia’s economy outpaces Japan. https://t.co/Y7wv29WjpH
Trump Hikes Global Tariff to 15%, Signaling Trade Upheaval
Trump raises his global tariff from 10% to 15%. All in one day. His geopolitics and geoeconomics. Is this it? Or will he do more that affects trade, supply chains, and logistics?
Jan Gas Futures Near $5, Could Slip Below $4.40
January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends...
USD Stays Strong; “Global Reserve Asset” Rebrands Failure
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Trump's Energy Policy Failed, Wasting Oil Leverage on China
Energy dominance has been Trump’s most consequential failure @Anon1Oil No Defense Production Act. No serious incentives. No strategy. “Drill, baby, drill” turned into “die, baby, die” in the oil patch. And he’s wasted oil as leverage against China. As for telling me...
Europe Needs Independent Central Banks to Drive AI Growth
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Tariffs, Trade Uncertainty Persists
Global economies. Trade. Supply chains. Logistics. Was Trump’s action to the Supreme Court striking down his tariffs it? Or will there be more?
Supreme Court Destroys Trump Tariffs, Supply Chains Must Adapt
Supply Chains Brace for Renewed Turbulence as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs. If you have not made your supply chains flexible and adaptable, good luck. https://t.co/PfhBGWsOQa
Insane Wealth Tax Triggers Global Investor Panic
This is utterly moronic on all levels. Have Dutch politicians overdosed on stupid pills? An ‘insane’ new wealth tax has global investors panicking https://t.co/VsB8fRFFkX
Trump Tariff Drama's Ripple Effect on Canada Explained
On this week's Canada Letter, our @nytimes Saturday morning newsletter, Ian Austen walks you through how the latest Trump tariff drama affects Canada. Also, a roundup of Canada-related stories from across our newsroom. Read, share, sign up! https://t.co/tsuuBxOUtM
GDP per Capita Fails to Reflect Real Quality of Life
GDP/capita is one of the worst metrics to gauge actually important things about people's lives. There, I said it.
AI Surge Boosts HBM Demand; Buy MU on Dips
Macro: AI demand drives chip & platform leaders. Factors: HBM tightness (Micron), AIP adoption (Palantir). Risks: supply, concentration. Trade: buy MU on pullbacks for HBM exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
NYT Reveals Bridge Owner Met Commerce Secretary Before Trump’s Attack
On Feb. 10 we @nytimes broke the story that the owner of Ambassador Bridge, a Detroit trucking heir, had met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hours before President Trump took to social media to blast a new competing bridge...
Trump's Threats Prompt Modi to Dismantle India’s Protections
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
Stay Overweight on Equities, Still Diversify Globally
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
Buy ONON as SCOTUS Limits IEEPA Tariff Upside
Macro: SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs; admin will likely reissue ~80–90% → limited upside. Key: supplier pricing, de minimis. Risk: refunds slow. Trade: buy ONON for margin tailwind. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Dollar Declines Despite Hot Inflation and SCOTUS Ruling
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold, Hurts US Stocks
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
10% Market Slide Could Wipe $
10% equity drop could erase $7T and shave ~0.9% off GDP. Tech/AI capex and hyperscaler overinvestment raise downside risk. Trade insight: trim cyclicals & hardware suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
EU's Orban and Fico Threaten Ukraine Aid, Risk Suspension
How many more years is this idiocy going to continue? Two collaborationist regimes in the center of Europe, during the largest continental war since WWII, are openly undermining the entire 500-million EU and the defense of the free world, all while...
Dollar's Future Uncertain After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
USD Stays Strong Despite Weak GDP and Tariffs
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
Debt Wall Myth: Accounting Shows Different Reality
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
Financial Media Misuses Weak GDPNow Forecasts to Spin Bullish Narrative
Recall @HalftimeReport Slink's confidentally quoting (on almost a daily basis) of the robust GDP Now projections by the Atlanta Fed (among the worst forecasters extant) to support her "the economy is great" and bullish market thesis? That is the...
Supreme Court Undermines Washington’s Geoeconomic Power Base
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
Gold and Silver Surge Amid Iran Tensions, CNY Break Ends
Gold back over $5100 USD and Silver over $84 USD. We have a potential Iran conflict, and the end of the CNY break next week. https://t.co/Eac6sG80np
Supreme Court Says IEEPA Can't Authorize Presidential Tariffs
The Supreme Court Ruling In a 6–3 decision (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
US‑Led Regime Change Leaves Libya with 58.8% Inflation
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
IEEPA Cuts Trump Tariffs, Boost
🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH
Supreme Court Threatens Trump-Era Trade Deals Under IEEPA
Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4
Gold Reclaims $5,100 Amid Geopolitical and Rate‑Cut Pressures
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : 5100 Has Been Reclaimed. Exactly as shared ahead of time. Technical break of market structure , Rising Geopolitical concerns , Tariffs uncertainty , Stagflation concerns , Rate cuts pricing = Higher Gold.
Sanctions Cripple Cuba's Grid, Wealth Fuels Private Power
Sanctions + fuel shortages broke the Cuban grid Those with dollars self-electrify while the rest sit in the dark. Energy desperation risks deepening inequality while the broader economy deteriorates. https://t.co/xOjVSt4Eep #EnergyCrisis #Cuba #Sanctions #Solar #GridFailure
Prioritize Understanding Over Constant Market Openings
We should stop asking for stock markets to be open for every economic announcement so that traders can hedge their risks. Imagine if our market was open when these new tariffs were announced and old ones scapped- 12 hours later people...
Japan's Low Inflation Reflects Weak Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Section 122 Exemptions Enable Net Tariff Reduction
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
India Can Freely Import Russian Oil After Tariff Ruling
Re. the US SC tariff decision: As IEEPA was also the basis for the 25% addl punitive tariffs Trump imposed on India for buying Russian oil, it no longer holds. While Trump scrapped those tariffs Feb 6 under an interim...
US Sells Venezuelan Oil to India, Surprising Twist
Today, the US announced a plan to sell Venezuelan oil to India. Note who’s selling Venezuela’s oil to India. It’s Uncle Sam. AMAZING. https://t.co/SLitquccox
IEEPA Tariff Invalidated Threatens Existing Trade Deal Framework
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...
China’s Growth Needs Domestic Consumption, Not Exports
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
Dollar Stays King, No Signs of Dethronement
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw