Tariff Shifts Offer Rule‑of‑law Gains, Little Immediate Relief
The economic impact of tariff changes. Me on @cnni with @jimsciutto - a bit of good news on rule of law, not much immediate relief. See @PIIE for more analysis https://t.co/bbkP6I3455
Base Case Unlikely
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Cheap Chinese EVs: Attractive Until Companies Collapse
Cheap Chinese EVs are boon, until the company goes bust. "Neta Auto’s parent company filed for bankruptcy last year after failing to pay wages, stranding customers in Thailand without after-sales support. Singulato, Aiways, Byton, and Levdeo have all shut down." https://restofworld.org/2026/china-ev-exports-competition-price/
Dollar's Reserve Role Extends to Growing Quasi‑Reserves
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
December PCE Inflation Hits 2.9%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Crypto May Dip Amid Multiple Market Pressures This Week
POLL: Busy week 📉 Markets React to Trump Tariff threats 🛍️February Consumer Confidence data 🤖Nvidia Earnings report 📊Jobless Claims data 💸January PPI Inflation data 👉Will crypto see new lows this week? $BTC $SOL $ETH $XRP
Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, Congress Holds Tax Power
Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal, as per the SC, and he's going to have to work with Congress and subject to the law now to sustain the tariff regime in various other ways. Or go back to court. China and...
Respect 5 PM Friday News Drops for Safer Investing
It is a prudent investment decision to respect 5pm Friday news drops given recent precedents. https://t.co/phlsQarN5X
Trump Tariffs Spur Urgent 12‑Month Market Diversification
Another threat from Trump on tariffs. How much market diversification can countries do? Now? In the next 12 months? And supply chains and logistics?
AI May Cut Taxable Income, Complicate Deficit Outlook
#NABE2026 AI and the federal deficits - Wendy Eldeberg formerly of CBO and now Brookings notes that AI could diminish taxable incomes? Reality nuanced due to taxes on workers could diminish. 🤯 AI boom could create a painful labor market...
Majority of Americans View Trump’s Tariffs as Harmful
Americans go negative on Trump's tariffs. A majority of U.S. adults say that the impact of tariffs on their families will be negative. https://t.co/eOn1TQa7Bi
Chile's Chicago Boy Reforms Outpace Argentina's Peso Woes
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
EU Halts US Trade Deal, Shifts Focus to Asia
EU stops trade deal with the US. What is next for the EU, India, and China and trade deals with the US? And for supply chains and logistics?
DXY Net Longs Flip Back to Positive Territory
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
Core PCE Inflation Surges: Over Half Exceed 3%
There are 178 components to core PCE and 48% of them saw YoY inflation >3%. This was 42% a year ago. We continue to think inflation will run closer to 3% than 2% and we do have a little bit of...
Fed's “Open Market” Is Actually Managed, Not Open
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
North Dakota Beats Venezuela; Venezuelan Oil Too Costly
#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive. Skeptical about how...
AI Funding Could Sideline Manufacturing and Job Growth
Fed’s Waller: Spending on AI. That capital could go to manufacturing and upstream supply chain fe-risking and diversification. Reshore? Onshore? And the economy and jobs?
USDA Confirms 125,000‑Ton U.S. Corn Sale to Colombia
USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in 2025/26.
Tariffs Shift U.S. Imports, Not Reduce Deficit
As a result of Trump's tariffs, Americans bought less from China, but more from other countries around the world — Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. TARIFFS DON'T CLOSE TRADE DEFICITS. THEY JUST RE-SHUFFLE THE SOURCES OF IMPORTS. https://t.co/CFIWJu9be2
Tariff Refunds Boost Retailer Profits, Not Consumer Refunds
If retailers raised prices during tariffs, that doesn’t create a liability to each customer—it creates profit (or covers costs). So if or when tariff refunds arrive, the default outcome is: firms recoup, shoppers don’t. Bottom line: You aren't getting a penny...
Trump's Unpredictable Tariffs Threaten Transpacific Supply Chains
Trump tariff turmoil clouds transpacific contracting season. The bigger question is Trump’s unpredictability for imports and revenue. Goes beyond the 15% and what he may do next? That supply chain risk is also logistics risk. https://t.co/mQLO4g8ITo
Neutral Rate Near 3% as Forecast‑Based Policy Debate Rises
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Waller Doubts AI Fuels Current Productivity Surge
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Warsh Chairmanship Could Push Mortgage Rates Near Zero
How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? https://t.co/eEzHs3zcYh
Fed Waller, Durable Goods Data Set Up Market Swing
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – Feb 23, 2026 🚨 🧠 Macro Headline: Markets digest Fed Waller + key U.S. data with durable goods and factory orders in focus. Growth vs slowdown narrative still in play. 📅 Economic Events: • 0800 – Fed’s Waller speaks •...
USD Stays Flat Post‑SCOTUS, Defying Tariff‑Driven Drops
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
Importers Brace for Potential 15%+ Tariff Surge
Trump. Is he amping up for more than 15% global tariffs? With his unpredictability, what do importer supply chains do now?
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Colombia, Chile, South Korea Lead 2026 Emerging Market Inflows
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Waller Open to Steady Rates in March if Labor Stabilizes
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
US Policy Shifts Risk Turning Economy Into Petrostate
The US risk drifting toward petrostate economics. Regulatory rollbacks and clean energy policy U-turns aren’t just about climate — they affect jobs, industrial competitiveness, health and investment certainty. https://t.co/6Jn5YrWN68
Short‑term Tariffs Won’t Drive Multi‑year Investment
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
1970s Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Returns Under Trump
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Local Content Rules Halve EV Subsidy Effectiveness
New @nberpubs: "Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production: The Battle for Battery-Powered Vehicles" https://t.co/DX6XB7e1R0 "local content requirements... drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies" 😲
Analysts Overstate Global Copper Supply by Ignoring Strategic Reserves
I am seeing many market analysts include the accumulated copper stockpiles in the US in their global balance of copper stockpiles and therefore conclude that there are >1 million tonnes of available copper in global stockpiles today. I am not...
Dollar's Dominance Will Persist Despite Trumpian Challenges
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Waller Speaks as US Activity and Orders Dip
Economic calendar for Mon. Feb 23. 8:00am - Fed’s Waller speaks 8:30 - Chicago National Activity Index for December: Expected -0.08; Prior -0.04 10:00 - Factory orders m/m for December: Expected -0.6%; Prior 2.7%
Live on Fox Business: Market & Tariff Outlook
I'll be on @FoxBusiness this morning with @MariaBartiromo today at 7:10 am EST, talking markets, recent tariff developments & what's in store
Dollar Holds Despite Weak GDP, Falters in Asia
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
Gold Volatility Surge Signals Looming Stock Market Reversal
Gold Volatility Could Trickle Up to Stocks - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what might be the top...
Armenia’s Landlocked Neighbors Limit Post‑Soviet Choices
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW
Trump Serves as His Own China Desk and USTR
Trump is his own China desk (and his own USTR) Brilliant reporting from @dimi of the FT (Strikes me as a very fair summary of the inside DC debate on China) 1/ https://t.co/SYfGL5iROn
China’s 2026 Policy Loosening Boosts Steel, Non‑Ferrous Demand
China signals looser policy and faster green transition for 2026, supporting steel and non-ferrous demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/china-2026-economic-policy-direction.html
Liquidity Signals Business Cycle End in 2‑3 Years
Interesting read, certainly something to consider. Even somewhat aligns with the business cycle views I expressed here: https://t.co/Ao19CL9d25 I think there is a reason to believe the current business cycle will end within the next 2-3 years from a liquidity point of...
China’s Overlapping Industries Amplify Industrial Policy Impact
Kyle Chan: "China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts." https://t.co/1Z2o8dcRWq