EU Anticipates US Softening of Metals Tariffs Soon
EU sees the US easing impact of metals tariffs in the coming weeks https://t.co/qG2gkI6D64 via @AlbertoNardelli @europressos https://t.co/QmBgb5eFOv
Consumer Confidence Rises, Inflation Expectations Slip to 5.5%
GS: Consumer Confidence and Labor Differential Increase The survey’s measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations edged down by 0.1pp to 5.5%. https://t.co/lrWMlf1pcR
AI‑Driven Revenue Drop Threatens Sovereign Bonds, Raises Capital Costs
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
Venezuela Leads Global Inflation Surge, Followed by NK, Iran
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
Selling US Chips to China Fuels AI Competition
tough look for Jensen and @DavidSacks and everyone arguing to keeping the China market open to older US chips (myself included) The case against export controls was always: sell to China so theres no market for their own. But they're...
Internet Economy Outpaces Overall Growth, Becomes Primary Engine
Stripe’s annual letter is out: https://t.co/N0TpoPbs6T The biggest highlight is relatively consistent every year: the Internet economy is growing faster than the rest of the economy. This has compounded for enough years that it is essentially _the_ growth engine in places.
Germany's De‑risking From China Exposes Costly Dependencies
Germany is finding out that “de-risking” from China is painful when dependencies have previously been knowingly created. Chinese price advantages & deliberate dumping are hurting German cos. via @JamesAngelos @Jordyn_Dahl @POLITICOEurope https://t.co/g7oYgu9xEX
Macro Data Flaws, Bots Favor Bad News, Calendar Strategies
🔬 Research links: the problem with macro data, why bots love bad news, and how to use calendar-based strategies. https://t.co/gUmyuaWsPO chart: https://t.co/9NGWAEXTU1 https://t.co/QufnB6WSHu
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
US Government Fails to Push Firms Toward Supply‑Chain Security
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Europe Must Block Chinese‑Made Cars From Flooding Market
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
Investing Strategies Aligned with the Big Cycle
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Iran's Oil Loadings Hit 2018 Highs, Margins Thin
Iran is pumping and loading at near-2018 highs ahead of nuclear talks Loadings are surging, buyers are softer, and oil-on-water is piling up More leverage, more risk, thinner margins. https://t.co/AZPC1zaGls #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Sanctions #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets
Goolsbee Flags Stubborn Core Service Inflation, Questions AI Growth Boost
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Tariffs Spike Costs, Crashing DTC ROAS
Your ad account looks fine: - ROAS is holding - CPMs are manageable - Conversions are flowing But your spreadsheet is screaming. As of February 2026, the average US tariff rate sits at 17% on all imports. For DTC brands...
Memory Chip Prices Surge 50% in Two Weeks
Wow, a respondent to the Dallas Fed's Service Sector report said that the prices they're paying for memory chips have jumped 50% in the last two weeks https://t.co/RdULT0epp4
Industrial Sector Hits 30‑year Valuation Peak Amid Optimism
S&P 500 Industrials’ forward P/E, at 26.5X, matches sector P/E in 2021, when earnings were impaired by the pandemic, and at 1.24X the index, is higher than at any point in the last 30 years. EV/Forward EBITDA, Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book...
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
Federal Deficit Swells to Historic 8% of GDP
US Federal Budget Deficit as a % of GDP... 1950s: -0.4% 1960s: -0.7% 1970s: -1.9% 1980s: -3.8% 1990s: -2.1% 2000s: -2.3% 2010s: -4.8% 2020s: -8.3% https://t.co/W7GwqCkcBx
UK Adds
Nearly 300 entities linked to Russian energy and military production have been added to the UK’s sanctions lists, including a network of oil traders whose vast reach was identified by the FT as the result of an IT blunder. https://t.co/Bky4oWVd2S
Ukraine Sabotages Pipeline, Cuts Oil to Slovakia, Hungary
Yesterday, Ukraine turned on Slovakia and Hungary. Ukrainian operatives blew up the main node of the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil and 86% of Hungary's oil. UKRAINE = TURNS ON TWO MEMBERS IN NATO. https://t.co/ItvWWCVJb5
Economy Accelerates Sorting of Winners and Losers
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv
Importers May Front‑Load Amid Flat Trump Tariffs
Countries and export options other than the US. Trump flat tariff. Will importers front load like before? Five years and continuing supply chain importance.
Gold Poised for Higher Leg; Buy Near 5080‑5100
Gold ( XAUUSD ) : Macro picture remains the same as told earlier. Current move is simply a small profit taking move before next leg higher , which is common after such quick bullish moves. I remain bullish. 5080s - 5100s looks...
Buy News, Sell Rumors; Metals and Boomer Stocks Surge
If you missed my client post November 26: "Sell The Rumor of Consumer Cyclical Slowdown; Buy The News." Or December 12: "ROTATION & RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS" Or January 6th: "2025: METALS ARE THE NEW OIL 2026: BOOMER STOCKS ARE THE NEW INFLATIONARY ASSETS" HALO has...
US Savings Rate Hits 4.5% — Lowest Since 1959
The personal savings rate in the US averaged 4.5% in 2025. History since 1959... https://t.co/umS9AR2N61
Supply Chains Brace for Post‑Tariff Uncertainty
What will Trump do with tariff that expire in 150 days? What next? What are China’s countermeasures? What will supply chains do now? After these tariffs expire? Prepare or react?
Yen Crashes as Dollar Rallies, Markets Brace for Volatility
🚨 Trump State of Union Tonight. The Yen Is Collapsing. Pay Attention Dollar surging across the board Yen crashed 1% overnight as Japan's PM fights the BOJ on rate hikes Dow broke below the 50 SMA for the first time this year -...
Trade Deficits Stem From U.S. Overspending, Not Foreign Theft
My views in @FortuneMagazine on President Trump’s tariffs: “Contrary to President Trump’s assertions, trade deficits are not produced by foreigners ripping off Americans. Trade deficits are produced by Americans spending more than they produce." https://t.co/LtaB5SgFSN
IMF: China Too Big to Export Out Its Malaise
“I recently spoke with experts at the International Monetary Fund, who put the problem bluntly: China is simply too big to keep exporting its way out of its own internal malaise.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/nsBIj0UbEq
Chinese Banks Pivot From US Treasuries to Diversified Reserves
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
Two Incomes Needed to Buy a House as Prices Surge
It takes two incomes to buy a house in modern America, with last year having another sharp increase. Chartbook Top Links of the day is here: https://t.co/Up3SU7RW5f
Turkey's Core Current Account Deficit Surpasses Pre‑2018 Levels
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
U.S. Skips Ukraine Invasion Anniversary, Offers No Statement
The U.S. administration did not send a single representative to the official commemoration events marking the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nor did it issue a single word through its embassy in Kyiv -- not even a standard...
Yen Falls as Beijing Sanctions Hit Japanese Firms
Yen Slides on a Double Whammy: The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese...
USD Steady as Japan Faces Beijing Pressure on JPY
The $USD is mostly little changed. The focus is on $JPY. Beijing stepped up export restrictions to ostensibly curb Tokyo's remilitarization and PM Takaichi reported pressed BOJ harder not to raise rates. See https://t.co/kOoSATxYUA https://t.co/1osffkrwvk
Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm
Copper Overheated: Price Spike Signals Potential Deflation
Is Copper a Prudent Short? Next to its industrial commodity and inflation companions -- iron ore, Brent crude oil and Chinese Government 10-year Bond yields (CGBs) -- copper might be too hot. From a base of 100, starting with our iron...
Tanker Rates Hit Three-Year High Amid US‑Iran Tensions
TANKER RATES for chartering vessels to carry crude (or other dirty products such as fuel oil) have surged to the highest for more than three years as the United States and Iran edge towards war. The Baltic Exchange dirty tanker...
Core PCE Goods Over 2% Inflation Trending Upward
The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr
Norway Central Bank Likely Pushes Rate Cut to Q3
Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF
India Lowers Dividend Taxes, Revises France Treaty Amid US Tariffs
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY
Huawei Hits $127B Revenue, Defying US Sanctions
Huawei’s revenues surge to US$127 billion as it continues to defy US sanctions Wait, thought controls were "working"?... https://t.co/fueavLdQgI
BlackRock Silently Powers Governments, Markets, and Wall Street
The U.S. Government can’t operate without it. Global economy can’t function without it. And Wall Street can’t trade without it. Yet most people have no idea what BlackRock actually does. Here’s how BlackRock built a $10 trillion empire that quietly controls everything:
Short EUR/USD Below 50‑Day SMA Target 1.1670
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
UK Threatens Retaliation After Trump's 15% Tariffs Backfire
In the aftermath of Trump’s new 15% tariffs, the UK threatens it will RETALIATE. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/k7gyK9spmB
China Bans Japanese Firms, Escalating Trade War over Taiwan Comment
China Hits Japanese Firms With Export Bans—Move marks another escalation in economic campaign against Japan over prime minister’s Taiwan comment @wsj_douglasj https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5 https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5