SCOTUS Blocks Trump's Emergency Tariffs, Curbing Executive Overreach
SCOTUS just ruled Trump can’t use emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. Why? The Constitution gives tariff power to Congress, and IEEPA never authorized a president to tax imports. The Court rejected the power grab and the economic overreach. It’s part of a pattern: courts are no longer deferring when the law is ignored. This could signal the beginning of the end of unchecked executive claims. Share & watch my full analysis.
Korea Call Delivers Near‑double EWY Gains Since August
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
Supreme Court Overturns Trump's Tariffs, Warning of Ongoing Trade Battles
Trump's tariffs COST US BUSINESSES BILLIONS. Fortunately, today, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. But that won’t be the last act in the TARIFF TRAGEDY. https://t.co/BaPcQ0duJJ
Investors Shift to Staples Amid Mag‑7 CAP‑Ex Weakness
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
Argentina's 32% Inflation Fueled by Runaway Money Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
Section 122 Tariffs Approaching Rapidly: Key Points
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
IMF's 2025 Report Flawed Using Outdated
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
BMO Raises Gold Forecast to $6,500, Bull Peaks $6‑7k
The Bank of Montreal has followed my lead. It just UPGRADED its gold price forecast to $6,500/oz by year's end. I predict the GOLD BULL will PEAK at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/69wgiprOrt
China’s Defense Surplus Funding Threatens US Corporate Influence
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
Canada Fears SCOTUS Loss Could Trigger Harsher Trump Tariffs
Canadian officials had told me they were concerned a SCOTUS loss might enable Trump to impose harsher tariffs on Canada, which currently has the lowest effective tariff rate together w Mexico. Whether they told the Trump Admin this, as the president...
Silver Near 10‑Month Streak Amid $2T Liquidations
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO
Crypto-Friendly Nations Will Attract Capital and Drive Growth
Capital goes where it’s welcome. Countries that embrace crypto will likely see the most economic growth in the next decade.
Bank Deposits Remain Cheap, Abundant, and Slow‑to‑reprice
Deposits are US banks’ primary funding source; they are typically cheap, abundant, and slow to reprice. Many households keep substantial balances in bank accounts that pay little or no interest. https://t.co/jTcFqJyFST
Only Israel Stays Above Replacement Fertility in OECD
All OECD countries other than Israel now have a total fertility rate below 2 https://t.co/jvolvyD3YP
EU Unveils “Savings and Investment Union” Capital Market Reform
The European Commission has launched another attempt to reform capital markets, rebranded as the ‘Savings and Investment Union’. https://t.co/UQ2DvCgG3f
Europe’s 2025 VC Funding Rebounds to 22% of US
2025 saw a modest recovery of venture capital investment in Europe after three years of decline, with a total of €66.2 billion deployed. Even so, this was only 22% of the amount invested in the US, despite the two economies...
Iran's Warning Highlights Hormuz's Strategic Oil Choke Point
My take on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “The Iranians recently shot a warning shot across the bow. They indicated that they can shut the straits down and cut the world off from 20% of its supply.” https://t.co/sbb1tuQO4T
Trump Threatens 10% Global Tariff Under Trade Act
President Donald Trump said he would impose a 10 per cent “global tariff” above existing US levies, using section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which allows the president to set import restrictions temporarily for up to six months. https://t.co/CX64ipBtzT
War Risk Premium Adds Only $10 to Oil Prices
U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...
US GDP Growth Stalls at 1.4% in Q4
US GDP growth SLOWED to a MISERABLE 1.4% in Q4 2025. Forget the AI, Silicon Valley, and Trump hype on the economy. The US economy grew at 2.2% for 2025 -- down from 2.8% in 2024. SPINMEISTER TRUMP HAS A LITTLE PROBLEM...
Supreme Court Ruling Won’t Boost Dollar Amid Growing Policy Chaos
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows, 200‑DMA Test Ahead
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows – Can 200DMA Hold? https://t.co/yX3huN7zHS Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZKGEjVWqUH
Fed Minutes Reveal Mixed Inflation, AI Boosts Productivity
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
Equity Risk Discount Signals Overvalued Market Amid Turmoil
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
Real Energy Costs Have Declined Since 1960s
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
High Valuations Test Market Resilience in 2026
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
Brazil Should Delay Bitcoin Purchases Until Inflation Target Met
For more than 5 years, Brazil has been unable to hit its inflation target. Now it wants to buy a million Bitcoin over the next 5 years for a National Bitcoin Reserve. Until Brazil hits its inflation target of 3.00%/yr, it should NOT...
SCOTUS Overturns Trump Tariffs, Global Markets Surge
Trump Tariffs (most of them, not all) struck down by SCOTUS. Immediate reaction on stocks: •US higher (Mag7 up led by GOOGL +4%). •Europe higher: London, Paris, Amsterdam at ATH. •Asia likely positive, but on the contrary the front loadings...
IEEPA Threat Raises Tariff Ceiling, Shifts Negotiation Dynamics
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Supreme
Here is my write up of all the data and the Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/december-2025-pce-and-gdp.html
NYT’s SCOTUS Tariff Blog Offers Live Global Coverage
The @nytimes #SCOTUS tariff decision blog is a thing to behold. Reporting and graphics from around the world --including, of course, Canada. Head over there for your live updates: https://t.co/fO09GrdVlu
Xi's Consolidation Will Prompt China to Seek Cheaper Imports
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
US Has 12‑18‑month Window to Sell Commodities to China
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
China Pays Premium for US Grain to Leverage Trump
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
Expert Questions Reports of China, Russia Arming Iran
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Chinese and Russian aid to Iran: “There are all kinds of rumors and reports ... that Iran is receiving important military aid from China and from Russia as it prepares for the conflict with the US.”...
IEEPA Tariff Ruling Limits Trump’s Broad Tariff Options
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
Geopolitical Shocks Spark Volatility,
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Jobless Boom Creates a Fire‑and‑ice Economy Despite Slowing Growth
My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to...
Venezuela's Offshore Gas Stuck Under US Sanctions
Venezuela sits on vast offshore natural gas reserves that could be developed quickly. But NOTHING will happen as long as US sanctions are imposed on Venezuela. It's time to LIFT SANCTIONS. https://t.co/RrlrOxXGDy
Trump 2.0 Boosts Banks, Revives Citi’s Fortunes
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
Dollar Collapse Imminent; Diversify with Gold, Crypto, Land, Guns
We're fucked. Buy gold. Buy bitcoin. Buy land. Buy guns and ammo. The dollar is toast.
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Supreme Court Destroys Trump Tariffs, Supply Chains Reset
With the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs, how will supply chains and logistics reset?
SCOTUS Issues 6-3 Ruling Against Administration on Tariffs
1/ We have the #tariffs opinion from #SCOTUS. Bottom line: a 6-3 loss for the administration. LINK to opinion: https://t.co/ITOB5aymTt
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Conservatives Embrace Carbon
Very interesting that Thomas, Alito, and Kav would sign up for carbon border adjustments under the President's emergency authority. Key question is whether the liberal wing can find space between tariffs and carbon border adjustments. https://t.co/TyTuDsECLC
Court Blocks Trump Tariffs, Military Eyes Iran: Brace for Volatility
US Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs + US Military preparing for an operation in Iran. Well , that's going to be a crazy end to the week. Embrace yourself for volatility.