Bitcoin's Record Low vs Gold Signals Buying Opportunity
#Bitcoin is currently on the lowest valuation ever vs. Gold. Some people might say that this is the end of Bitcoin. Others might argue that the markets are actually going to turn around from here. If you look at the macroeconomic landscape and all other arguments, I think that it's a great moment to accumulate positions. Why? Watch the update here: https://t.co/3O74BJnZzt
U.S. Corn Exports Surge 52% Beyond 2020 Levels
🌽U.S. corn export sales for 2025/26 are nearing 61 million metric tons (2.4 billion bushels). Early Feb sales in 2020/21 were similarly massive but heavily skewed by China. Non-China 2025/26 corn sales are 52% larger than at this point in 2020/21!
Domestic Sales and Exports Aren't Comparable Economic Metrics
It is ignored because it is misleading to compare in country sales (generated by Chinese production for sale to Chinese buyers) to exports (goods produced in one country for sale in another). Firms and countries are different economic concepts
Gold Dip After NFP Profit‑take, Still Bullish Long‑term
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) just dumped over a 1000 pips after yesterday's NFP , but what just happened ? 👇 Netanyanho signalled towards de-escalation in the middle east with a potential deal b/w Iran & US This optimistic headlines lead to a...
China Eases Capital Controls as Asset Buildup Accelerates
China usually liberalizes its financial account when the PBOC (now the state banks) are accumulating assets at too rapid a pace, and it wans the dollar risk to be taken by others ... 1/2
From Labor to Compute: Economy’s Next Quantum Leap
1900: Internal Combustion + Electricity = 5x GDP growth. 2026: AGI + Humanoid Robotics + Space-based Energy = 50x GDP growth. This is NOT a cycle; instead, we are in a phase change for the species. The transition from being...
SOLS: Cheap US Uranium Conversion Monopoly Amid Global Shortage
Thread(1/2) 🧵 We put our SOLS long thesis above the paywall in our Atoms vs. Bits primer yesterday, so I’m also going to summarize for all you degenerates on X. The story is simple: the uranium trade has resulted in nearly every...
East Asia Drives Surging Trade Surplus, Currencies Remain Cheap
Bingo And the global trade surplus (ex pharma) is now primarily in China, Taiwan and Korea ... Important qualification to the now standard argument the dollar has gotten weaker (which is true primarily if the clock starts at the end of 24,...
EURCHF Plummets to Record Lows, Yield Gaps Irrelevant
Another FX PSA: $EURCHF has extended its generational slide lower to fresh record lows. Yield differentials don't matter at all here apparently: https://t.co/cHMUxde914
US Energy Secretary Visits Venezuela's Orinoco Oil Belt
Well, I admit that if you have asked me three months ago, certainly I didn't have the following on my 2026 bingo card: "... US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright tours the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela with the US-installed Venezuelan...
Headline Inflation Cools, Core CPI Accelerates in January
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
Tariffs Fail Without Consensus, Chaos Undermines Industrial Policy
The problem with "give tariffs time" as a plan is that they have been implemented in a way that won't stand up to courts, there is not a bipartisan consensus supporting them, and voters hate them now because they have...
Excess Wealth vs Limited Cash Fuels Asset Bubbles
Wealth isn’t worth anything unless it can be converted into money to spend. And when there’s a lot of wealth relative to the amount of hard money available — like we’re seeing today — bubbles are created. @nikhilkamathcio https://t.co/iBiRkkv7Ok
Global Wealth Shift: US Cuts, Overseas Gains Ahead
A Massive Global Wealth Transfer Is Coming Americans will consume less, the rest of the world more. Capital is flowing overseas. This isn’t a crisis, it’s a wealth transfer — and there are winners if you know where to look. PeterSchiff #Economy...
Gold Lacks Earnings; Overvalued Compared to Commodities
I managed the largest gold fund in USA. Here's the truth: Stocks have "babies" (earnings). Gold has NO babies. 🍼 Gold's at historic extreme vs. oil/soybeans. You're crazy if you think gold's gonna outperform inflation - @BergMilton https://t.co/bNqmCOVYCt https://t.co/7NJ9NoBZCx
Russia, China Shape Western Leaders' Strategic Decisions
This is not about rhetoric. This is about influence that changes outcomes. This piece explores how Russia and China have shaped the thinking and incentives of Western political leaders in ways that matter strategically. If you want to understand why Western policy sometimes...
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Older Americans Hold 70% Wealth, Drive Consumer Spending
The least productive part of our economy keeps getting wealthier...If you have a larger balance sheet you've relatively benefitted because of continuous gov't support, while labor has been shoved in a locker. Whatever happened to the party of labor?? hmm🧐🧐 "About 30%...
Dollar Regime Flip: Strong Data Now Weaken Currency
Something big is going on with the Dollar. In the past decade, strong data have pushed the Dollar up, but that isn't what happened yesterday. We're going back to the regime that prevailed before, whereby strong data push the Dollar...
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
2025 Real GDP per Capita Rises, Energy Cuts Ease Inflation
Today's GDP figures show a much needed pickup in real GDP per capita - 2025 was the first year this measure grew for three years. In April, energy bill reductions from the 2025 Budget will come into effect, tackling inflation...
FX Market Consolidates After Strong January Jobs Data
Consolidation Featured after Yesterday's Big FX Moves: The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation after yesterday’s stronger than expected January jobs data injected volatility into dollar trading. The news stream is light… https://t.co/TEyGQAuZOx https://t.co/b9kn9ngrdN
Price Controls Trigger Chaotic, Uneven Resource Allocation
I'm super excited for my new paper with @ATabarrok and Mark Whitmeyer: "Chaos and Misallocation under Price Controls" During the 1973-74 gasoline crisis, the U.S. had about a 9 percent national shortfall. But that was far from evenly spread out. Over...
EU Parliament Backs Digital Euro to Curb US Payment Dominance
Post-Trump assault on Greenland, the EU parliament delivers a big win for the digital euro as it wins 420-158 backing in EU Parliament straw poll The digital euro couldn't have better timing as the EU looks to the digital euro...
Makhlouf Predicts ECB Could Cut or Raise Rates
Makhlouf says next ECB move could be interest-rate cut or hike https://t.co/A8bEIJQ2pB via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/Wq9tyTki8q
Asian Stocks Outpace US, Shifting Money Abroad
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
Dedollarisation Isn't Driving Yields Lower, Media Misleads
Is Dedollarisation driving bond yields lower or is social media pushing the wrong story? A deep dive into dollar strength, Fed policy, gold, and global trade dynamics. Full breakdown inside 👉️ : https://t.co/qdYNFtTIhV https://t.co/rMDnvdP14u
Treasury’s Cash Boost Saves Debt, Costs SARB
The state accessed funds held in the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA). When Treasury spent the funds, liquidity surged through the banking system, forcing the SARB to manage (“sterilize”) the excess cash, so short-term rates didn’t fall below...
Stablecoins Reveal New Gresham’s Law: Good Money, Bad Payments
Noelle is _always_ worth reading, but today is especially good Stablecoins and the new Gresham’s Law https://t.co/OPJ4BdgNVj "So, the US ended up with a system of good money, bad payments." https://t.co/B0xMfEdzHl
BlockFills Freezes Withdrawals as Crypto Volatility Spikes
First, you lose in a matter of weeks 50%% to 99% - depending on which shitcoin you were duped to invest in - and then they don’t even allow you to withdraw the remaining crumbs of your investments. Standard operating...
Europe’s LNG Hunger Redirects Chinese Shipments to Europe
LNG demand in Europe is so strong that it's taking a shipment *FROM CHINA* ⚠️ An LNG tanker reloaded a shipment at a Chinese terminal and is heading to Europe (China is the world’s largest LNG Buyer) Europe's LNG imports have surged...
Productivity Gains Are the Real Driver of Inflation
Posted this thread two years ago on the enigmatic relationship between inflation and productivity, and more relevant now than ever—
Trump’s Pipeline Push Could Cheapen Coal Rail Transport
🚂If President Trump is serious about increasing coal exports dramatically, and if he is serious about US energy dominance, he will build oil pipelines and prohibit rail transportation of oil. This will provide the US coal industry with the help...
USDCNH and USDHKD Show Strong Inverse Correlation
The correlation between the USDCNH and USDHKD is the most intense and consistent inverted I've seen since the former (theoretically) 'floated'. What's going on there? https://t.co/KsfLfKWwTf
Venezuela's Oil Shifts: Implications for Canada Discussed in Calgary
I’ll be in Calgary in early March for a discussion hosted by the Canadian Heavy Oil Association about what recent developments in Venezuela mean for Canada’s oil industry. Join us! And drop me a line if you want to grab a...
Refineries Drowning in Silver Scrap, Bearish Outlook
Why @BergMilton is bearish silver: refineries are OVERWHELMED with silver scrap, EVEN MORE than in 2011 (prior speculative peak). Well sourced from "largest smelter in New York" Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi https://t.co/ng04tObLMG
Argentine Peso Rallies, USDARS Breaks 100‑Day SMA Streak
In case you haven't been keeping tabs, the Argentine Peso has been gaining some traction recently. $USDARS has taken out some recent support and ended a 1,689 (trading) day streak above the 100-day SMA https://t.co/Vq0kH5UKHg
East Asia Dominates Global Goods Trade Surplus, Eclipsing Europe
Crazy how much of the global (goods) trade surplus is in East Asia now. Even with the "fake" Irish pharma surplus, the euro area is dwarfed 1/ https://t.co/eZjcgAlVqC
US Grads Face Higher Unemployment; Eurozone More Educated Workforce
Very striking data these a. on US graduate unemployment and b. higher share of tertiary education in Eurozone labor force than in the US. Explore these economic insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/xNeFQVgZKf
NFP Beat Trims Fed Rate Cut Expectations by 8‑12bps
In the wake of this morning's NFPs beat and downtick in the unemployment, Fed Funds futures have shaved off ~8bps worth of expected cuts through 2026 - was as much as 12bps. Someone is going to be surprised if this continues:...
Trump Urges Netanyahu to Pursue Iran Nuclear Deal
OIL MARKET: President Trump says he told Israeli Primer Minister Netanyahu that his preference is to cut a deal with Iran. “I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a deal can be consummated.” https://t.co/VhkfL7QBHF
EU Debt Issuance
If the EU were only able to issue its own debt, imagine the possibilities… Yeah, imagine if you gave EU bureaucrats the power to spend an astronomical amount in addition to its power to regulate https://t.co/KAqbSOG71R
Yen Carry Trade Holds; USD Weakens, Markets Rise
Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwinding Like You Think $USDJPY $FXY $QQQ $DXY Japan & China’s pressure on Treasury sales are weakening the USD, supporting equities + metals overall, without triggering a disruptive yen carry trade unwind. https://t.co/m6Mu3FpuRf
Big Tech Buys Trump Tariff Exemptions, Small Firms Suffer
Big Tech and their lobbyist have bought exemptions from Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the small fries are getting FRIED. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = THE BIG GUYS CAN ALWAYS BUY AN EXEMPTION. https://t.co/zlVn4ornDl
New Jobs Report: What It Means for You
Latest jobs report just dropped. Let's spend a few minutes talking about what's really going on, what it means for you, and what to keep your eye on. https://t.co/ptv6DbFqKM
Argentina's 32% Inflation Signals Milei Must Dollarize
Argentina’s January inflation came in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Pres. Milei’s monetary model is not working. MILEI MUST DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/MLSKqYfys7
USDJPY Plunges 2.5% in Three Days, Reversal Uncertain
$USDJPY is down over -2.5% over the past three days. One of the biggest drops in the past year and a half. Doesn't mean it has to stall and reverse though... https://t.co/LRjhnctyzL
CBO Underestimates AI's Productivity Boost, Forecasts Too Low
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...
US Household Debt Peaks at $18.8T, Delinquencies Surge
US household debt just hit $18.8 TRILLION. Consumer delinquencies are at their HIGHEST LEVEL in nearly a DECADE. Not a good sign. https://t.co/PHcOGrhvOc