France’s Economy Stands Strong, ECB Should Stay Hands‑Off
France has low exposure to Middle East shock, low inflation and resilient growth. ECB should not react to energy swings. Risk: energy volatility. Trade: overweight French banks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iranian Drone Attack Halts LNG, Sparks Dual Energy Shock
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 4 — A DIFFERENT SHOCK 🚨 Day 4 changes the calculus. This isn't just an oil story anymore. QatarEnergy — the world's largest LNG supplier, covering 20% of global supply — halted all production after Iranian drones...
China May Need US Cooperation on Iran Energy
Here is a picture of @TheMichaelEvery being interview by a large Dutch man in Cape Town and in the process being hit by the epiphany that the geopolitical irony of the Iran situation is that China might be put in...
Europe Faces Looming Energy Crisis: Key Takeaways
What does the potentially emerging energy crisis mean for Europe? Yesterday I was in a media briefing with 75 journalists. Here is a snippet of what I told them. https://t.co/3dT441Yllq
2022 Traders Rediscovered JKM‑Equity Link Amid Gas Surge
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
Market Makers Now Serve as ETF Authorized Participants
Back in the day, Goldman Sachs was the premier Wall Street bad guy. The investment bank attracted endless scrutiny of the supposedly conflicting and asymmetric arrangements that powered its broker dealer operations. Key among these were its primary dealer arrangements....
China's Oil Stockpiles Offer Buffer Against Price Spikes
“Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices...
AI-Driven Market Dispersion Hits Multi-Decade Highs
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
LNG Supply Shocks Expose Energy Transition’s Fatal Flaw
Qatar LNG offline — unprecedented. U.S. exporters win, importers lose, says @seb_kennedy Ukraine & Iran wars expose a core flaw in the “energy transition” narrative. All energy depends on supply chains — break them, you break energy. No supply chains, no energy. Plan B? #LNG...
DC's Limited Tricks Can't Stop High Oil Prices
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
Iran Denies Ras Tanura Attack, Blames Israel
Ras Tanura was attacked by Iran based on all reliable reporting @RyanRozbiani A Tasnim denial is just that, not independent confirmation. #Iran #RasTanura #OilSecurity #MiddleEast #FactCheck #Geopolitics @VandanaHari_SG
Iran Strike Sparks Cross-Asset Volatility, Market Outlook Discussed
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
Yuan Gains Return Real Exchange Rate to 2024 Levels
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Ships Still Transit Strait of Hormuz Despite Closure
Strait of Hormuz Traffic March 2, 2026 The past 24 hour ship passages through the Strait of #Hormuz after #Iran declared its closed.
Hormuz Traffic Plummets, 150 Tankers Stranded, Oil Halted
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running 70% below normal. Roughly 150 tankers are stranded in the Strait. If that’s not bad enough, the IRGC adviser, Sardar Jabari, stated, “Not a single drop of oil will leave the region.” https://t.co/A4WO3ah53J
Low Tariffs Make New Trade Deals Marginal; Boost Domestic Demand
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
Dimon Warns Inflation May Spark Economic Downturn
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
Trump Refuses Refunds After Supreme Court Deems Tariffs Unlawful
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
Iran Regime Fall 48% Likely, History Shows Failure
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
Price Wars Hurt Productivity, Threaten Chinese Economy
.@Aligarciaherrer: “They cut prices aggressively, not because they’re getting leaner…but because everyone else is doing it and they fear losing customers…Unproductive companies are hurting the productive ones, which is…not good for the Chinese economy.” https://t.co/ZakESJy4Fc
Tariffs Drive U.S. Equipment Production Overseas, Cutting Jobs
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...
Gundlach Urges Investors to Shift From Dollar to Foreign Assets
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Crypto Bets Risky Amid Fragile Equity Market Outlook
“It’s very obvious that there’s a lot of fragility in the market… and it’s very hard to bet on crypto if you think that the equity market might take a real bath here.” https://t.co/oUCYvsFWWo
Strait of Hormuz: Politics Clash, Captains Hold the Final Say
Iran says the Strait is closed. The U.S. military says it’s open. Reality: you still have to convince a captain to sail it. Ten years ago, shore-side managers could (and did) twist arms. Today? Nobody wants to become TikTok famous for twisting arms...
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
Kharg Island Identified as Critical Oil Export Choke Point
Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil exports, says VanEck Funds CEO https://t.co/rI4JYhLG71
Oil Market Stays Calm Amid War Rhetoric
"Oil market not too worried" @Bear__85 "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you" --Leon Trotsky https://t.co/G26AVdQkOv
Iran Conflict Drives Oil and LNG Prices Higher
Oil, LNG Prices Spike as Iran Conflict Continues Ron Bousso, senior columnist for Thomson Reuters, discusses oil, LNG markets and the likelihood that Middle Eastern tensions will keep prices high. #IranWar #IranIsraelWar https://youtu.be/TyuJU-0pvIo
Red Sea Crisis Hits 834 Days, Hormuz Just Three
“Today is day 834 of the Red Sea crisis and day 3 of the Hormuz crisis,” shipping analyst Lars Jensen
Europe’s Gas Prices Surge 50% Amid Hormuz Tensions
European gas just posted its biggest one-day jump since the Ukraine invasion. Up ~50% as Hormuz security stalls LNG shipping. Energy shocks don’t disappear — they compound. Just when inflation felt contained, volatility returns. Cost-of-living isn’t gone. It was dormant. #NaturalGas #TTF #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Support Montana's Palladium Mine for Economy and Security
US Senator Steve Daines on Montana palladium mine, in the wake of US tariffs on Russian supplies of the metal used to make semiconductors and other materials:
Oil Market Stays Calm Despite Ras Tanura Strike
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
Iran Commander Declares Hormuz Closed, Threatens Passing Vessels
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
France Revives Nuclear Buildup, Sparking Arms Race Fears
For the first time since 1992, France will expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Why expand? France already has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, following Russia, the US and China. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS ANOTHER ARMS RACE. https://t.co/khuyfhNe9A
War Undermines Plans, Makes Predictions Fragile
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Sulphur, Hikes African Copper Leaching Costs
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
IEEPA Refund Delays Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
Friday, the Trump administration began stalling IEEPA tariff refunds in court. In a new @CatoInstitute blog post, we review US regs on customs duty refunds & find that IEEPA delays will cost taxpayers ~$700M/month (~$23M/day) in additional interest payments owed...
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Halts Traffic, Tankers Brace
Strait of Hormuz Enters Active Crisis: Five Ships Hit, Traffic Collapses, Tanker Markets Brace for Historic Shock https://t.co/QozOvFyHte
US Soybean Inspections Hit Record, 65% Headed to China
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China. https://t.co/pdWgCErVIi
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Markets Shrug Iran Strikes, Eye Earnings-Driven Sell‑off
Obviously the market doesn't really care about the strikes in Iran. The stock indices are barely down, silver is selling off big and crude oil is spiking, but nothing significant, it's nowhere near last June's high from the previous strike...
Germany Reverses Heat Transition, Reviving Fossil Heating
Just last week the German government gutted the heating law which was supposed to drive a transition away from gas. The timing could not have been worse: Gas prices are up 50% today & this crisis could worsen significantly. This will...
US Manufacturing Grows, Input Costs Surge to 2022 Levels
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
Oil, Fertilizer Prices Surge After US‑Israel Strike
#oil & #fertilizer prices both spike following the US-Israel joint strike on Iran with the Strait of Hormuz essentially shut down. #oatt #oott https://t.co/wrY5JcnYwb
Record Exodus: Americans Depart US in Unprecedented Numbers
Americans Are Leaving the US in Record Numbers Is America becoming a land of emigrants? @JoeWSJ & @drewhinshaw WSJ story looks into this new era. Cameo by Toronto's East End & the unique Riverdale Park view of the city I get to...
Housing and Food Prices Cooling Amid Oil Inflation Fears
Good to see on a day where there are worries about high oil prices and inflation, other key inputs like housing and food may be cooling
Trump's Iran Attack Sparks Trade Uncertainty and Logistical Disruption
Trump. Uncertainty. Disruption. No equilibrium. What would that mean to trade, supply chains, and logistics?
Russian Rail Freight Plummets, Flagging Economy Amid War
Russian rail freight. Drops. Sign of economy. Exports. Russian Railway. Large employer. What comes next? For economy. For Ukraine war.