Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates? Comment below 👇 https://t.co/jiPVtjxurz
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Diesel Costs Rise $0.40/gal, Adding $0.06 per Mile
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
MRAs Key to Trade Expansion, Diversification, Resilience
#tradeXpresso: how important are #MRAs for trade expansion, export diversification and supply chain resilience? If you missed it, catch up with the latest insights from an excellent panel of experts at the @wto #TBT thematic session 👇 https://t.co/NMNgTHfYkC
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Dollar Surge Reflects Short‑term Risk Aversion, Not Lasting Strength
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/EXSOCllmRB
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Iran Conflict May Accelerate Solar and Battery Adoption
Past fossil-fuel price spikes left import-dependent countries with two options: pay up or cut fuel use. Now there is an alternative in solar and batteries. I looked at recent examples in Europe, Pakistan and Cuba to glean what might happen...
Dollar Surge Is Temporary Asset Repatriation, Not Reserve Decline
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar...
China Hikes Military Budget, Seeks Tech Self‑reliance
In a Riskier Era, China Bets on Technology to Resist U.S. Pressure China announced a 7 percent increase in military spending and a five-year plan to try to reduce its military and industry’s reliance on Western technology. https://t.co/c3cRysLtmX via @NYTimes
Supreme Court's Power to Reshape Supply Chains Challenges Its Relevance
When nine justices can redirect global supply chains overnight, it’s fair to ask whether the Court’s structure still fits the modern economy. #SupplyChain #GlobalTrade https://t.co/N2tgQ7sgEX https://t.co/kCnjdrx0CX
US Pressures Ukraine to Spare Russian Energy Assets
The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/XGHjzTaHH8 #ukrainewar #militarystrike #geopolitics https://t.co/lB8qnpN0Kx
Nvidia Halts China Chip Production Amid Ongoing Trade Restrictions
FT, citing sources: Nvidia has stopped production of chips intended for the Chinese market, betting that regulatory barriers in Washington and Beijing will continue to limit sales to China. @zijing_wu https://t.co/WzcEVP1osx
Govt Prioritizes Stability, Market Unimpressed by Incremental Targets
This is a useful table, and shows the revealed preference by the govt for stability, and to keep the current policy structure essentially on track. I don’t think many or any thought different. That said, there are a few things...
BNM Holds 2.75% Rate Amid Middle East Uncertainty
BNM maintains OPR 2.75%. BNM mentioned “conflict in Mid East” risk: “The MPC acknowledges the uncertainties from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The impact to the global & Malaysian economy will depend on how these developments evolve....
Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Oil Supply Shock, Duration Uncertain
I’m on Bloomberg TV tomorrow at 1pm HKT with the wonderful @JoumannaTV on China, India, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and what the widening conflict in Iran and the Middle East means for the region. Short story - we are buyers...
ECB's Wunsch: Euro Gains Strength Through Expanded Global Role
Euro could strengthen with a bigger global role, ECB’s Wunsch says https://t.co/Qg36hBmWVe via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/LrN4SLJExv
India VIX Shows Iran War Risk Already Priced In
Have we discounted the IRAN war risk in markets? Using the India VIX to consider the idea that the worst of our fears may already be in the market https://t.co/LzpXAJuIYv https://t.co/H4WBbxWV2k
China Advances Power of Siberia 2 and Far‑East Gas Pipeline
March 5 (Reuters) - China will push forward early-stage work on the Power of Siberia 2 project, while building the China-Russia Far East natural gas pipeline under its 2026-2030 five-year plan, which was released on Thursday.
Hormuz Closure Threat Spurs Oil Price Surge
Same. I wrote about this past few days for clients because too many are complacent: Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target https://t.co/jNvbWvy4Rt
Productivity Gains Masked by ‘Ghost GDP’ Distribution Gap
This is the last point I will make regarding the piece, as I am really glad to see that name calling has resolved to constructive discussion and a genuine exchange of thoughtful commentary like that offered by Professor Damodaran. If you’re...
Asia Faces Modest Growth, Rising Defense, Soaring Energy Costs
On @CNBC in an hour to discuss Asia (China and India). China growth target is soft but same as many expected which is 4.5% to 5%. Defence spending rises officially +7% but many say real spending increase higher. The headlines are really about...
China Sets Historic Low Growth Target, Signaling Slower Era
China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth—Beijing sets historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5% @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu @ByXiaoXiao https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw
US Stocks Close Gap, End Worst Start Since 1995
US plays major catch-up to ex-US YTD... @augurinfinity No longer the worst start to a year since 1995... not by a long shot $SPY $VEU $VTI $ACWI https://t.co/l8DRcKNBof
Israel, U.S. Target Iran's Leadership, Undermining Negotiations
Israel and the U.S. are steadily eliminating Iran’s top leadership, including figures capable of negotiating an end to the conflict... Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to watch the full video ➡️ https://t.co/R47Ca3Pp6h #iranwar #military #geopolitics https://t.co/HS9nDRCPcB
Supply Chains Shifting Back to Americas, Leaving Middle East, Asia
This is a predictable trend and highlights the importance of companies moving supply chains back to the Americas. Middle East today, Asia tomorrow.
Analysts Keep Downplaying Momentum, Repeating Past Mistakes
I am very confused why they keep downplaying the momentum. They did the same thing in 2020 during the early days of the COVID recovery and were slow to recognize the freight recession in 2022.
Poland Eyes Central Bank Funding for US‑aligned Rearmament
Poland’s right wing president Karol Nawrocki is hatching a plan to use the NBP (Polish central bank) to help finance Polish rearmament. Except as Bloomberg notes, legally, the cbank isn’t allowed to finance the govt. Why do they want this?...
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
Russia's GDP Shrinks, Inflation Claims Unmasked
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥
Coal: Unexpected Hedge for AI Boom and Economic Rebound
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the...
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
China’s Composite PMI Hits 3‑Year Low, RatingDog Peaks
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
Trump Sends Interior Secretary to Venezuela for Oil Revival
President Trump deployed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to Venezuela as part of his bid to revive oil & mineral production there. In between conversations with oil and mining executives, Burgum is now meeting w/ interim President Delcy Rodriguez. https://t.co/beZPI3VM4I https://t.co/vc6M08u0pz
US Must Pay Interest on All Tariff Refunds
"US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Pay Importers Tariff Refunds" https://t.co/An3drmGJ4F It is the law, after all. Question is: how many refunds actually get issued after a lengthy court/administrative battle. The answer should be: all, now. But... https://t.co/xGmrydPr1P
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Bitcoin's Drop Signals Inevitable Low‑price Commodity Slump
Can we avoid typical low-price cures toward $40 crude, $3.5 corn in 2026? Bitcoin bear market prove otherwise starts at about $74,000 https://t.co/TATxs2Sdkc
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
New Atlas Tool Tracks Iran War Shipping Disruptions
We just updated Flexport Atlas to better track disruption to container shipping from the Iran war. Go to https://t.co/W2RkZnA4nS and use hotkey “D” to toggle it on. Our status calculations (all real time) Stalled: stayed within 30 km radius for 24h ...
Iran Dispute Threatens US Farm Exports, Especially Olive Oil
🇺🇸🇪🇸USA & Spain are at odds over Iran, and Trump has floated a trade embargo. What could that mean for U.S. ag? On the import side, olive oil would be the biggest victim. USA exported a record $2.4B in farm goods...
EU Anticipates Exemption From US 15% Tariff Increase
EU expects exemption from the US universal tariff boost to 15% https://t.co/XiyLxBsgAB via @jendeben https://t.co/I0YRgVF88F
Trump’s Retreat Proves IEEPA Bans, Not Taxes
Assuming Trump backs off his Spanish Embargo threat (a safe assumption, IMO), it won't just be another TACO. It'll perfectly prove @ATabarrok's point here about why an emergency wartime law like IEEPA would allow a presidential import ban but not...
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
History Shows Most Nations Experience Mass Displacement—Stay Mobile
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
Revive US Manufacturing to Secure National Defense
Re: concerns about how loss of manufacturing capacity in the US has put national security at risk in the case of a war. It seems like looking how to address shortages we observe now, with so much US-armed global conflict...