Stablecoins Enable Uber‑Style Surge Pricing, Threatening Fragmentation
Nice to see that @HyunSongShin has officially recognized that stablecoins open the door to an "Uber Surge Pricing" type liquidity market. [Actual gas markets also clear in a similar way, notably the NBP balancing point system.] The below screenshot is from his latest BIS paper "Tokenomics and blockchain fragmentation". This is something I've been pointing to for years, though I've seen it as eventually leading to dynamic pricing and markets for intraday funds in general. The paper is more concerned about the fragility and fragmentation risk introduced in systems that rely on many different networks using surge pricing mechanisms to ration entry and exit across systems. And of course turkeys don't vote for xmas, so the central bank perspective is that all this "congestion" and cost uncertainty can be avoided if programmable money just shifts to cbank ledgers where the cbank balance sheet can absorb congestion shocks in a way that can regulate transaction costs. The BIS concludes: "These [programmable money] innovations do not require decentralised consensus among anonymous validators. They can be implemented on unified ledgers anchored by central banks, which benefit from the institutional trust of the traditional monetary system." https://t.co/TdO6kqrvXD
Inflation on Target, Yet Fed Likely Remains Hawkish
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
Iran Threatens US Tech, Could Trigger Market Sell‑off
🚨 Big Tech in Iran Crosshairs - Is a Market Sell-Off Coming? Everyone watched CPI today… but the real story is Iran. Tehran just warned U.S. tech facilities and banks in the Middle East could be next targets - naming companies...
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
War's Economics Explained: Theory Meets Today's Conflict
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
Globalization Remains Resilient Amid Bloc Formation Talk
Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP
Core CPI Hits 5‑Year Low, Yet 3‑Month Rate Rises
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
China’s 2025 Car Exports Eclipse Germany Despite Population Advantage
Yes, the numbers are that crazy. Not impossible obviously, but crazy. The increase in China's vehicle/ car exports over the course of 2025 was ~ 2m cars and it acceletated toward the end of the year. ...
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
Westward Gulf Pipelines Become Critical in Coming Weeks
In the coming days and weeks, a lot may hinge on the pipelines running West from the Gulf. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/olUgBDf1dD
Unbalanced Globalization Persists: Insights From PGIM’s Daleep Singh
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
Europe’s Fossil Dependence Exposes Vulnerability, Urging Faster Energy Transition
I was interviewed by @AlJazeera on impacts of Middle East crisis on energy markets. We discussed Europe’s structural vulnerability due to fossil fuel imports, broader economic effects of energy price volatility & why this moment should sharpen focus on the energy...
Post-War Recovery: Trust Lags, Trade and Cooperation Suffer
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management. https://t.co/mIgNA1yJph
Iran's Hormuz Control Boosts Oil Exports Beyond Pre-War Levels
Iran’s Control of Hormuz Means It’s Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War https://t.co/UlXJwHN0ld
US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends
"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL
Oil Climbs 2% as Iran Threatens Tech Sites, Reserves Released
Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...
Canadian Dollar Poised to Outperform Amid Heavy Shorts
The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...
War Sparks Call for Coordinated Oil Reserve Release
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider: The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian...
Greece Sets Profit Margin Caps on Fuel, Groceries
Greece to impose cap on profit margins for fuel and groceries https://t.co/PeATWo5wZT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/SdRCwkzf2I
China's 90% Model Undermines Global Industries
Industries don't collapse overnight. They are systematically pushed out. China's 90% Model works by building production capacity to meet 90% of global demand in a targeted sector. Chinese companies then flood markets and price at or below marginal cost—supported by subsidies, cheap...
AUD Hits Two-Year High on Looming Rate Hike
$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war....
Strait of Horm
US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is...
IEA Report Signals Shift From Oil Oversupply to Shortages
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw
Germany Can Endure Short Iran Conflict, DIW Says
Germany can weather Iran war if it doesn’t last, DIW says https://t.co/p2s5WEREa5 via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/Tgo1ceqVj6
Russian Oil Tax Price Tops Budget Target Amid Iran War
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...
China's Trade Surplus Grows as Property Recovery Stalls
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
EU Mulls Gas Price Cap to Cut Power Bills
EU weighs a gas price cap to lower power costs amid Iran war https://t.co/3qDLf3s6Jq via @johnainger https://t.co/A2PK57MYOp
Worker Power Drives Inflation, Now Workers Lose Edge
inflation is about power. In the 70s, workers had the power to resist the oil squeeze. In 2022, there were acute labour shortages, which produced temporary pockets of worker "power". Today, workers are gonna get hosed
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
ECB Will Likely Misstep on Energy Price Policies
never bet against the ECB doing the wrong thing, particularly when energy prices are involved
Oil Markets Destabilized by Info War and Hormuz Closure
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...
Sánchez Dismisses Trump's US‑Spain Trade Cut‑off Threat
Sánchez rejects Trump’s threat to cut off US trade with Spain https://t.co/fIgEZES8mP via @rorihuela https://t.co/Fiix9DqEgG
G7/G20 Vows to Curb Iran Oil Leverage
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
Brazil, Saudi Arabia Team Up on Critical Minerals Mapping
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
ECB Faces Three Paths: Hold, Modest Tighten, Panic Hike
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
ECB's Kazimir Signals Imminent Rate Hike, Ready to Act
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
AI Threatens SaaS: Market Shift Signals New Risks
🚀 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝘁𝗼-𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼: 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 Let’s break down what happened in the markets over the past month. ----- 🌏 A Shifting Global Landscape The SAASpocalypse — the fear that Artificial Intelligence will soon put Software Services companies out...
Qatar's Ras Laffan Outage Tightens LNG Market, Spikes Prices
The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...
Iranian Rial Jumps 17% After US‑Israeli Strikes
Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
IEA to Release More Oil than Post‑Ukraine Invasion, Hormuz Closed
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
Former TPP Negotiator Offers Skeptical View on Trade Pact
A more skeptical take from my #CarnegieAsia colleague Barbara Weisel, who was, among other negotiating roles, the U.S. negotiator of TPP: https://t.co/qWfsfWFbf1
Don't Conflate War Talk with Strait of Hormuz Energy Debate
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
New Interview Reveals Outlook for China's Economy
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
UAE Economy Lags Behind Turkey and Iran, Data Shows
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
IEA's Massive Oil Release Hinges on Single-Country Veto
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
Admin Allegedly Uses Vague War Comments to Control Oil Prices
If the administration’s strategy to keep oil prices down is to manipulate the market by making false and/or vague statements on social media about the war then well…points for creativity
US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF