US Federal Deficit Hits $1 Trillion in First Five Months
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
Market Holds Amid Chaos, One Final Rally Ahead
- Mixed Earnings - New Fed Chair - Multiple sectors collapsing - Aggressive Middle East War - Venezuela invaded - China challenging the US Dollar - US tariffs deemed illegal - Precious metals going parabolic - Oil spiking - $VIX running to 35 - Crypto completing an ABC correction And...
Truce Hangs on Unlikely Iranian Nuclear Commitment
and if Israel & US truce depends on Iran pledging no more nuclear program does anyone believe this?
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Orban Likely to Amplify Kremlin‑Fueled Ukrainian Conspiracy Claims
Knowing that the Kremlin has sent its political strategists to help him, I’m afraid Orban may soon start pushing even more deranged nonsense, things like a “Ukrainian terrorist attacks” in Hungary or a “Ukrainian assassination attempt” against him.
Core PCE May Hit 3.4% YoY by Q2
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
US Price Lag Could Shrink, but Strait Closure Threatens Economy
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
CPI Climbs on Food, Energy; OER Masks True Inflation
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
Misguided US Tariffs Spawn Costly Refund and Calculation Services
So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO
Iran‑Hormuz Tensions Threaten Global Supply Chains, Manufacturers Must Act
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could have major supply chain implications. Lisa Anderson explains why this global shipping chokepoint matters—and what manufacturers should be thinking about now. Watch the Supply Chain Byte. #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Manufacturing https://t.co/hLUT5Rpp0T
Treasury Confirms New Tariffs, USTR Prewrites Justifications
No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Top Economist Warns Imminent Oil Shock and Stagflation
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
Excessive Fuel Subsidies Threaten Fiscal Stability
If governments lean too hard into fuel subsidies this is going to shift from necessary demand destruction to rolling fiscal crises.
EU Considers Lifting Sanctions on Dutch Oil Trader
Sanctions news: EU is weighing lifting its Russian sanctions against oil trader Niels Troost. Diplomats told the FT the designation of the Dutch trader was "legally weaker" than other listings. Discussions on-going. Decision subject to approval by 17 March https://t.co/JxBkaf5Xzx
Kazakhstan Boosts OPEC+ Output, Iran War Cuts Exports
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Thai Ship Burns Near Oman Amid Hormuz Transit Controversy
for whom?! Iranian tankers shipping Iranian oil? Right now there's a Thai cargo ship on fire off the Coast of Oman that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe ask them if they think its working out "very well"
Full Employment Requires Taming Inflation, Not Rate Cuts
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel Spikes 96¢/Gal, Straining U.S. Supply Chains
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
Conflict Is a Supply Shock, Not Demand‑driven Inflation
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Core Inflation Remains Steady Over Past Three Years
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
ECB Warns of Inflation Risks Despite Muted Growth Concerns
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
Iran Urges US to Exit Middle East, Pivot to Asia
Iran's demand is the U.S. leave the Middle East. Basically, do the pivot to Asia for real.
White House Claims Iran Destroyed; Inflation Fuels War, Buy Bitcoin
They think we're stupid. The @WhiteHouse said Iran’s nuclear facilities were "obliterated" in June 2025. Now we're escalating again? Why? And we're expected to finance this spending via inflation? Fiat is perpetual war, debt, and inflation. Opt out. Sell bonds. Buy bitcoin. https://t.co/EUQm4727iz
India Backs IEA Emergency Oil Release, Pledges Market Stability
Very pleased to read the Government of India's supportive statement for @IEA's collective action to release emergency oil stocks to address disruptions in global oil markets – and that India stands ready to take appropriate measures to support global market...
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Halting Non‑Iranian Tankers in Gulf Sends Shockwave
yes, managing to stop all non-Iranian oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf is a tremendous impact.
Russia Mulls 10% Budget Cut Amid Falling Oil Revenues
"The Russian government is preparing a possible 10% cut to all 'non-sensitive' spending in this year's budget, sources told Reuters, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the war in Iran. As...
Core PCE Outpaces CPI Due to Weighting Differences
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
Aramco Restores 70% Flow, Yet Critical 30% Still Blocked
Saudi Aramco resumed 70% of oil shipments via Red Sea pipeline. Markets celebrated. But 30% is still offline. And the Strait of Hormuz — the main artery — remains contested. 70% of normal isn't normal. https://t.co/8vfhBzo9cZ
Fed Likely Holds; Crypto Rescue Trade Still on Standby
The Fed is 99% expected to hold rates next week. April cut odds just dropped to 11%. The "Fed pivot will rescue crypto" trade has been on standby for two years now.
CPI Understates Inflation; Core Services Surge, Fed Faces More Pressure
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Europe Scrambles to Mitigate Prices After Trump’s Iran War
Europe rushes to deal with price fallout from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/khA8dhNhMj via @johnainger @donatopmancini https://t.co/3tcyP5Pu0U
Rising Taxes Trigger Housing Supply Surge, Fuel Doom Loop
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Middle East Conflict Squeezes India's LPG Supply, Spikes Black‑market Prices
The primary driver is the escalating conflict in West Asia involving Iran, Israel, and the US. This has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime gateway for nearly 90% of India's LPG imports. While the government has prioritized domestic supply...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Prolonged Middle East Conflict Will Spike Oil and Inflation
Everyone thinks this war will be quick, clean, and somehow end with peace across the Middle East. That’s fantasy. We’ve heard this story before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Politicians promise “mission accomplished” and the real problems start right after. Markets are still far too optimistic...
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG